- Record-high prices: In August 2025 the average detached home in Winnipeg sold for $450,596 (up 8% YoY), with every month of 2025 setting a new price record winnipegregionalrealestateboard.ca nesto.ca. Condominium prices also hit records (up ~4% YoY).
- Tight inventory: Active listings are down ~10% year-over-year (just ~3,600 homes in Aug 2025) winnipegregionalrealestateboard.ca nesto.ca. This chronically low supply, combined with steady demand, has kept Winnipeg one of the stronger Prairie markets – and a seller’s market – even as sales volumes dip slightly winnipegregionalrealestateboard.ca nesto.ca.
- Building surge and targets: City Hall has aggressively promoted new housing. Winnipeg set a goal of 8,000 new units by Nov. 2024, and by Sept. 2024 had approved 7,603 of those winnipegfreepress.com. A federal Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF) partnership targets 14,101 new units by 2026 (with $122 M in grants) winnipegfreepress.com. In 2024 the city approved roughly 12,000 new homes overall, including many multi-family projects under HAF (over 1,100 rentals, of which ~600 are “affordable”) numberten.com.
- Mortgage/affordability: Despite rising prices, Winnipeg remains more affordable than larger cities. RBC Economics notes that Winnipeg’s affordability has recently stabilized (RBC’s composite ownership-cost measure was ~31.8% in Q2 2025, modestly above its long-run average) rbc.com. In practice, lower interest rates and stable incomes are expected to keep home purchasing power roughly on par through 2025, even as prices tick higher. Buyers face fierce competition, but CMHC reports resale activity staying strong (with sales up ~5% YoY in 2025) and mortgage rules changes are bringing some pent-up buyers back into the market rbc.com cmhc-schl.gc.ca.
- Rental market tight: Winnipeg’s rental vacancy is extremely low (about 1.7% in 2024 cmhc-schl.gc.ca), the lowest of any Prairie city. CMHC forecasts vacancy will rise only slowly (to ~2.0–2.1% by 2027) and rent growth remains high in 2025, then moderating later cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Rents have already risen in 2024–25 (e.g. average 1–2 bedroom rents up a few percent nesto.ca), reflecting sustained demand for apartments and scarce supply.
Residential Market Trends
Winnipeg’s housing prices have climbed through 2024–25. According to the Winnipeg Real Estate Board, by mid-2025 the average detached price was about $456,700 (up ~8% vs. prior year), and even condominium averages are up a few percent winnipegregionalrealestateboard.ca nesto.ca. Notably, every month of 2025 set a new record for detached prices in Winnipeg winnipegregionalrealestateboard.ca. Sales volumes, however, have been slightly lower than in 2024; for example, Aug 2025 had 1,402 home sales (-5% YoY) winnipegregionalrealestateboard.ca nesto.ca. The overall dollar volume of sales remains high (Wpg totalled ~$561 M in Aug 2025, +3% YoY winnipegregionalrealestateboard.ca). Year-to-date to Aug 2025, all-home sales were up ~5% and sales dollar volume was up 12% winnipegregionalrealestateboard.ca, signaling that strong prices are offsetting softer unit sales.
This pattern reflects a tight market. Active listings are very low (3,624 in Aug 2025, down 10% from Aug 2024 winnipegregionalrealestateboard.ca nesto.ca). Sales-to-listings ratios (~73% in Aug 2025 nesto.ca) classify Winnipeg as a strong seller’s market. In this balanced-to-seller regime, even modest demand pushes prices up. A recent analysis notes that while many Canadian markets face rising inventory, Winnipeg remains one of the tightest, helping to sustain price growth nesto.ca. RBC Economics likewise observes that Winnipeg’s market is “balanced” compared to national extremes, a factor now driving values higher nesto.ca.
Buyer behavior & mortgages: Buyer demand remains steady. CMHC expects buyers returning (first-timers, upgraders, renewals) to keep resale markets active into 2025 cmhc-schl.gc.ca assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Most notably, Winnipeg avoided the big pandemic-era price boom of Toronto/Vancouver and also the sharp post-pandemic bust of BC/ON. By 2023 sales had actually fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, but CMHC projects a modest rebound in 2025–26 cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Mortgage markets are easing: mid-2025 saw the Bank of Canada signal rate cuts, so variable-rate buyers may re-enter and renewals become easier nesto.ca. CMHC and RBC both forecast broadly stable mortgage costs and incomes through 2025, which should keep purchase costs fairly constant overall rbc.com cmhc-schl.gc.ca. In the short term, though, affordability remains a concern for many first-time buyers, as moderate incomes must meet rising prices and high debt costs.
Housing types: Demand is broadening. Detached houses remain popular, but land scarcity and construction costs are driving more multi-family development. In 2024-2025 about half of approved new units were apartments/condos winnipegfreepress.com numberten.com. CMHC notes that Winnipeg has more apartments and multiplex starts than single-detached in recent years, and that purpose-built rentals are growing fastest cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Condominiums have also seen price appreciation (record peaks in 2025) but some analysts warn condo markets may cool later (as investor demand from the pandemic wanes) cmhc-schl.gc.ca.
Commercial Real Estate (Office, Retail, Industrial)
Winnipeg’s commercial market has held up relatively well in 2024 and early 2025. Retail space is particularly strong: vacancy rates are at a multi-year low, and rents are rising. CBRE reports 2024–25 retail fundamentals were “remarkable,” with Winnipeg headed into 2025 with the lowest retail vacancy of any asset class in the city cbre.ca. This reflects solid demand for suburban and downtown retail (big-box stores, shopping centres and some infill neighbourhood stores), supported by steady local spending.
Industrial/warehouse is also exceptionally healthy. CBRE notes the industrial vacancy is only about 3%, one of the strongest conditions in Canada cbre.ca. There is intense demand for modern warehouses (often 18+ foot clear height) in the city’s logistics hubs. A surge of spec-building (by developers Hopewell, QuadReal, etc.) has met with strong leasing interest, but high construction costs (in Manitoba among the highest in Canada) have raised break-even rents (around $18/sqft) cbre.ca cbre.ca. As a result, many businesses are choosing to renew leases rather than relocate to new space. Overall, industrial fundamentals remain robust, and CBRE expects strong occupier demand to continue if rents remain affordable cbre.ca cbre.ca.
Office sector has been weaker. Winnipeg’s downtown office vacancy ticked up to about 18% by late 2024 cbre.ca. No large new towers are underway (the recent Wawanesa Tower is completed), so supply is flat, but many companies are still downsizing or relocating. Suburban office (e.g. in Brandon or Perimeter areas) is outperforming downtown; CBRE points out that connected downtown buildings (with skywalk access) have ~9% vacancy versus ~30% in unconnected towers cbre.ca. There is modest interest in office-to-residential conversions, but no major projects have yet been announced (lack of incentives hinders feasibility) cbre.ca. Interestingly, a number of downtown Class B office buildings were purchased by Indigenous organizations (e.g. Manitoba Metis Federation buying 200 Main, 333 Main, 191 Pioneer), which immediately raised occupancy in formerly near-empty towers cbre.ca. If this trend continues, it may stabilize downtown vacancy to some extent.
Investment climate: Overall, Winnipeg’s commercial assets look attractive in 2025. Industrial yields (reflecting low vacancy and rising rents) are particularly hot, and retail too (especially dominant neighbourhood malls). Even office is under-priced compared to bigger cities, which may lure patient investors. However, the market faces rising construction and financing costs: new supply (especially rental apartments) is constrained by higher interest rates, which could limit returns. CBRE expects commercial transaction volumes to gradually recover in 2025 as lending eases and investors re-enter cbre.ca. In the residential sector, the market is already “seller-leaning,” which means investors face competition from local owner-occupiers. Risks include any renewed national rate hikes, or a broader economic slowdown that could cool local demand.
Neighborhood Insights and Gentrification
Winnipeg’s neighborhoods show distinct trends. The central areas (Downtown, Exchange, West Broadway, St. Boniface) are attracting much of the new development. The City has set downtown targets (at least 350 new units/year by 2030, rising to 500/year thereafter canada.constructconnect.com). Major projects are in the works: e.g. redevelopment of Portage Place Mall into mixed use (True North Square’s partner) through 2027 cbre.ca, as well as the long-awaited Portage Place overhaul and Naawi-Oodena (former Kapyong Barracks) master plan winnipegfreepress.com numberten.com. Developers are also pursuing infill across mature neighborhoods: recent approvals include a 127-unit rental in St. Boniface and a 99-unit mixed-use on Nairn Ave in Elmwood canada.constructconnect.com canada.constructconnect.com. Infill projects typically replace older low-density lots (vacant houses or stores) with 4-6 story apartment buildings. The city is updating zoning to allow more infill by right, reflecting its goal that half of new housing be in built-up areas canada.constructconnect.com.
These changes have raised gentrification concerns. For example, a 102-unit development planned on Sherbrook St. (West Broadway) faced opposition because its “affordable” rents (~$1,100 for 1-bed) far exceed what many current residents can pay globalnews.ca globalnews.ca. Community groups note median incomes there are only ~$28K/year, so most of the area’s population would be priced out. Such tensions illustrate a classic gentrification issue: new higher-end housing moves into a modest-income neighborhood. Experts caution that while bringing development to areas like West Broadway or Osborne Village can revitalize them, it can also displace long-term lower-income residents if deeply affordable units are not included globalnews.ca globalnews.ca.
Outside the core, Winnipeg’s sprawling suburbs (Charleswood, St. Vital, etc.) continue to grow with single-family and multi-family subdivisions. However, even here the emphasis is shifting inward toward missing-middle housing (townhomes, duplexes) and apartments due to land constraints and infrastructure costs canada.constructconnect.com numberten.com. North Winnipeg and the inner core (North End, parts of West End) remain the most economically challenged, with slower price growth. Overall, the market is tightening everywhere: low-income neighborhoods see new development aspirations, while established middle-class areas (Wolseley, Linden Woods) see competitive bidding. How this plays out will depend on policy (see below) and continued support for affordable housing.
New Housing Starts and Construction Outlook
Housing starts slowed slightly in 2024. CMHC data (cited by media) show that January–August 2024 starts in Winnipeg were 3,407 units, down 16% from 4,049 in the same period of 2023 winnipegfreepress.com. The decline was attributed to higher interest rates (builders pausing amid uncertainty) and material/labor constraints. Nevertheless, with City approvals high, there is a large pipeline of projects awaiting financing. In fact, the City’s own report indicates 7,603 units approved by Sept 2024 winnipegfreepress.com – within sight of the 8,000 target.
CMHC forecasts call for stable starts through 2025–27. Under their projections, Winnipeg will see steady new construction led by multi-family: HAF and other programs are boosting apartment building. CMHC notes that purpose-built rental starts will lead growth, supported by low vacancies and government incentives (e.g. sales tax exemptions on new rentals) cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Single-detached starts are expected to continue a gradual decline relative to multiplexes cmhc-schl.gc.ca. In CMHC’s forecast summary, Winnipeg’s total housing starts (singles + multiples) hover around 5,000–6,000 per year through 2027 cmhc-schl.gc.ca, about flat to modestly up from 5,151 estimated for 2024.
Key drivers: – The federal Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF) gives Winnipeg $25 M to cut red tape and upzone. Under HAF, the city must loosen zoning in single-family areas to allow more multi-unit housing numberten.com numberten.com. City Council began zoning bylaw review in late 2024 to fulfill this pledge. – Provincial support: Manitoba has eased rules too, e.g. new legislation raised the threshold of neighborhood objections needed to trigger a zoning appeal from 25 to 300 people electricalindustry.ca. This should speed up rezonings for denser projects. – City streamlining: Winnipeg is updating its development approvals to eliminate redundant hearings for infill projects, aiming to process thousands of units faster canada.constructconnect.com.
Construction risks: High building costs (materials, labor) remain a concern. CBRE notes Manitoba’s industrial construction is among the most expensive in Canada cbre.ca, and residential construction inflation similarly squeezes builders. Rising financing costs (until cuts arrive) and potential labor shortages (Winnipeg already faces trades gaps) could delay projects. However, with so many projects approved or in planning (including the major downtown and suburban complexes), overall starts should tick up in 2025–26 once lenders stabilize rates.
Government Policies & Regulations
Multiple layers of policy are shaping Winnipeg’s market:
- Federal policies: Ottawa’s national housing plan (through CMHC) is in play. Measures like the First Home Savings Account (FHSA), lowered mortgage stress test for new buyers, and expanded RRSP rules give first-time Winnipeggers more purchasing power (though still outpaced by price rises). Importantly, Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF) requires the city to upzone and streamline. Under HAF agreements, Winnipeg has committed to eliminate “exclusionary zoning” and speed approvals numberten.com numberten.com. The federal government is also investing billions in affordable rental and modular housing nationwide. Winnipeg is a chosen pilot for some of this – for example, under the Build Canada Homes initiative the city will use federal land to build modular homes (Winnipeg is among 6 cities prioritized for building 4,000 factory-built homes nationally) nesto.ca. If implemented, that program could modestly add inventory starting ~2026.
- Provincial/City policies: Manitoba’s government is actively trying to speed up housing. In Oct 2024 it introduced amendments to the Planning Act and City Charter, making it harder for small groups to force costly appeals on zoning changes electricalindustry.ca. This effectively gives municipalities more control to approve infill and new subdivisions more quickly. The City of Winnipeg also unveiled a comprehensive housing strategy: targeting at least 8,000 new units in 2024 (all tenures), 14,101 units by 2026 (with federal help) winnipegfreepress.com winnipegfreepress.com, and tens of thousands more in the decade thereafter. The city has funded incentive programs (e.g. a $25 M grant fund for affordable/downtown projects) and is overhauling development by-laws. For example, new zoning rules (approved in late 2024) now permit more multi-family forms in formerly all-single-family zones, all without extra public hearings canada.constructconnect.com.
- Affordability measures: Winnipeg has also joined federal rent-control and homeowner support schemes. Manitoba announced a freeze on condo apartment rent increases (as part of federal-provincial housing agreements). City policy emphasizes “affordable units” – though so far only ~1–2% of permits in 2024 were designated affordable winnipegfreepress.com. The upcoming federal-provincial National Housing Strategy is expected to pressure Winnipeg to increase low-income rental stock via new LIFT housing projects or non-profit partnerships.
These policies should collectively boost supply and somewhat cool inflationary pressures. In particular, removing the GST on new rental construction and eliminating the city’s portion of the PST on new purpose-built rentals (a recent Manitoba change) will make projects financially easier numberten.com. Over the next 3–5 years, continued government funding and regulatory reform should keep new housing starts elevated and encourage a shift from detached only to more apartments and townhomes.
Rental Market and Vacancy Rates
Winnipeg’s rental sector is extremely tight. Vacancies have been well below 2% in recent years – for instance, about 1.7% citywide in 2024 cmhc-schl.gc.ca. The pandemic saw a brief jump in vacancies, but the market has since “snapped back.” Between 2021 and 2023 Winnipeg’s vacancy rate dropped by nearly 70% canada.constructconnect.com as demand rebounded faster than new supply. CMHC forecasts that vacancies will inch upward to roughly 2.0–2.1% by 2027 (still historically low) cmhc-schl.gc.ca. This very low vacancy is why rents have been rising: CMHC expects “reasonably strong rent growth in 2025” (supported by the tight market), before softening later in the decade cmhc-schl.gc.ca.
Empirical data align with this: by mid-2025 average Winnipeg rents were already up a few percent from 2024. For example, typical two-bedroom rents were around $1,775 in Aug 2025 nesto.ca. (One-bedroom units were about $1,440, up ~3% YoY nesto.ca.) Such rents remain low compared to Toronto/Vancouver, but they reflect steady increases here. With vacancy so low, landlords have leverage – so most new market apartments are being absorbed quickly. The city’s own housing reports show that rental construction has been running at a historically high pace (thanks to developer incentives), yet it still hasn’t lifted vacancy much cmhc-schl.gc.ca.
For tenants, this means affordability pressure. Many young families and low-income residents have shifted from owning to renting (or remained renters by necessity). The City’s housing strategy emphasizes affordable housing, but currently only a sliver of new units are truly below-market winnipegfreepress.com. Unless large non-profit and cooperative projects come online, Winnipeg’s rents will likely continue drifting up faster than inflation for the next year or two, keeping the rental squeeze real.
Population Growth and Demographic Shifts
Winnipeg’s population is growing, but more slowly than a few years ago. The city (proper) grew from 705,244 in 2016 to 749,607 in 2021 (7.2% in five years). More recent estimates put Winnipeg’s population near 787,000 by 2025 worldpopulationreview.com (city boundaries). The annual growth rate has been around 1–2% per year, though some reports suggest it peaked at ~7% over the 2022–24 period and is expected to slow to ~2.6% in 2025 and ~1% in later years wowwinnipeg.com. In other words, Winnipeg continues to attract people (from immigration and interprovincial moves) but the pace is decelerating.
This slowdown is significant for housing demand. Fewer newcomers mean less pressure on condos and apartments. For example, student permit holders (many of whom rented locally) have declined sharply under recent federal policy, reducing the non-permanent population in Manitoba by ~1.3% in 2024–25 gov.mb.ca. On the other hand, immigration remains strong: Manitoba welcomed ~24,400 new immigrants in 2024 (up 12% from 2023) gov.mb.ca, a large share settling in Winnipeg. Provincial and federal population plans assume that Winnipeg will continue to grow modestly (driven by its affordability and economy).
Demographically, Winnipeg is quite young and diverse. The median age is around 39, and the city has one of Canada’s largest Indigenous populations (roughly 12% identifying as First Nations or Métis wowwinnipeg.com). Winnipeg also has a growing visible minority community (e.g. Filipinos ~9% of population wowwinnipeg.com, one of the largest such shares of any Canadian city). Household composition is changing too: more single-parent families, more seniors living alone, and gradually smaller household sizes overall. These shifts affect housing demand: for instance, there is rising demand for smaller units and rental apartments among young adults and seniors, while demand for large lots remains among families.
In sum, population growth is slowing, meaning that demographic factors will provide less of a tailwind for housing demand in 2026–2030. This is part of why analysts predict more moderate housing growth in Winnipeg compared to Alberta or Saskatchewan cmhc-schl.gc.ca. A city think-tank notes that Winnipeg’s growth has been strong (7% in two years) but will level off, implying some future softness in demand wowwinnipeg.com. Maintaining a stable supply pipeline will be crucial to prevent a deadlock – too much slowdown could stall the market, too little could rekindle sharp price surges if demand suddenly picks up.
3–5 Year Forecast (to 2030)
Putting it all together, most forecasters see steady but not explosive growth in Winnipeg’s real estate markets through about 2030:
- Prices: After double-digit jumps in 2020–24, home price growth is expected to slow. CMHC forecasts that price appreciation will remain positive in 2025 (reflecting continued demand and tight supply) but will moderate in 2026–27 as more listings come online cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Detached home prices may reach the low-$400K range by late 2025 (consistent with WRREB projections) and then climb more slowly toward the mid-$400K–$450K zone by 2030. Any national economic downturn could prompt a brief cooling, but the underlying upward trajectory seems intact due to constrained land supply and relatively strong income growth.
- Sales activity: After a slight dip in 2024, home sales are expected to trend gradually upward. The housing outlook calls for Winnipeg’s sales to rebound from 2023 lows back toward higher levels (though still modest by national standards) cmhc-schl.gc.ca. CMHC’s forecast summary shows annual resale transactions in the 12,000–17,000 range under low/high scenarios for 2025–27 cmhc-schl.gc.ca (8,000–15,800 projected). In plain terms, expect more deals in 2025 as buyers adapt to lower rates, and then a plateau around 2026. New listings may inch up too as some owners decide to sell into strong market conditions.
- Construction: New home construction should remain elevated and roughly stable. Starts will be led by multi-family and purpose-built rental projects underpinned by federal funding and city incentives cmhc-schl.gc.ca. CMHC suggests around 4,700–6,000 total starts per year (singles+multiples) in 2025–27 cmhc-schl.gc.ca, with higher numbers if demand surprises upward. Downtown and infill will see a flurry of apartment buildings (helping meet the 350–500 units/year target canada.constructconnect.com). Suburban growth will continue but at a slower pace; large land parcels are increasingly scarce, pushing developers inward. Over the longer term, it is likely that single-family starts drift lower (as urban land use shifts) and apartment/townhome starts take a greater share cmhc-schl.gc.ca.
- Rental vacancies and rents: Vacancy may inch up from near record lows, but not by much. If thousands of new rental units hit the market (as targeted), vacancy could reach ~2–3% by 2030 – still very tight historically cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Rents are expected to grow strongly into 2025 (benefiting landlords), then slow to low single digits thereafter. Rents for new market apartments might even plateau or dip slightly in the late-2020s if supply outpaces limited demand.
- Economic/demographic factors: Winnipeg’s economy is fairly diversified (government, manufacturing, transportation, IT) and unemployment is moderate. Over 2025–30, it is likely to grow modestly unless hit by a recession. Continued in-migration (especially from warmer provinces) will provide a tailwind, but slower population growth overall means housing demand will largely rely on internal turnover. The biggest wild card is immigration policy (e.g. federal targets) – higher immigration could push demand up beyond current forecasts.
Risks and opportunities: Interest rates are the biggest near-term risk. If global inflation resurges, rates might stay higher for longer, damping both sales and construction. Conversely, if the Bank of Canada cuts aggressively, we could see a sharp upswing in spring 2026. On the supply side, any bottleneck in materials or labor (e.g. a trades shortage) could slow starts and push prices higher. Conversely, continued deregulation and funding (federal and municipal) could inject more homes than expected, cooling prices further.
Investment-wise, Winnipeg is often seen as a stable, conservative market. It lacks the volatility of Vancouver/Toronto booms, but also tends not to crash hard. For 2025–2030, most analysts see modest growth: “great for steady builders, but no ‘sky is falling’ drama” as one CMHC report puts it. Landlords will enjoy reliable occupancy and rising rents in the near term, but should plan for eventual normalizing. Homebuyers should brace for continued competition: while buying may become slightly easier if rates fall, the days of bargain hunting are over.
Bottom line: Winnipeg’s real estate market in 2025 is active and competitive. Prices are at record levels (fuelled by low supply and steady demand), new construction is ramping up under aggressive city and federal programs, and rental markets remain tight. Over the next 3–5 years, expect steady growth – prices will climb further (though more slowly), sales will rise modestly, and new starts will be largely fulfilled by multi-family projects. Government incentives (like HAF grants, zoning reforms, tax exemptions) will play a key role in shaping where and how fast new housing is built. For now, sellers and developers hold the upper hand, but the influx of new supply planned for 2025–2030 should gradually move Winnipeg toward a more balanced, if still in-demand, market cmhc-schl.gc.ca cmhc-schl.gc.ca.
Sources: Analysis is drawn from the Winnipeg Regional Real Estate Board winnipegregionalrealestateboard.ca, CBRE Canada cbre.ca cbre.ca, CMHC market outlooks cmhc-schl.gc.ca cmhc-schl.gc.ca, RBC economics rbc.com nesto.ca, and local news reports canada.constructconnect.com winnipegfreepress.com globalnews.ca. These cite the latest available data on prices, sales, vacancy, and policy up to late 2025.
