Key Facts
- Housing Prices Surge: In summer 2025 the Québec City CMA saw record prices. The median single-family home reached about CA$453,500 in July 2025 – a 21% jump year-over-year apciq.ca. Condos and plexes also climbed roughly 10–11% apciq.ca. Notably, Québec City led Canada with a 13.4% annual home-price gain by early 2025 globalpropertyguide.com.
- Sales Volume & Inventory: Sales are red-hot. July 2025 transactions were up ~12% from a year earlier apciq.ca, driven by a 15% spike in single-family home sales apciq.ca. At the same time, active listings plunged. By mid-2025 available homes were down roughly 28% from 2024 apciq.ca, creating severe supply shortages (especially entry-level and affordable units). Bidding wars are common – ~40% of homes sold over 5% above asking in mid-2025 apciq.ca.
- Rental Market Tightness: Québec City has one of Canada’s tightest rental markets. CMHC reports the rental vacancy was only 0.8% in 2024 assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca – effectively “record low” by historic standards. Most newer rentals are quickly absorbed; even suburbs had near-0% vacancy assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca. With demand far outstripping supply, average rents have risen sharply. In fact, by late 2024 the average two-bedroom asking rent in all Québec City submarkets had topped $1,000 assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca, and lease turnover rents jumped ~12% year-over-year. This makes finding an affordable rental extremely difficult.
- Commercial Sector: Office availability is easing. CBRE reported that after negative absorption earlier, Q2 2025 saw net absorption turn positive, pushing vacancy down by ~0.4 percentage points cbre.ca. Class-A downtown office rents average about $16.50/sq.ft (higher than the regional average) cbre.ca. Sublet space has also shrunk dramatically. Québec City’s industrial market is stabilizing: rents have held firm and limited new supply has balanced modestly rising cap rates canadianrealestatemagazine.ca. Retail space (especially grocery-anchored strip centres) remains in demand, though exact vacancy figures are not publicly reported for the region.
- Economic & Demographic Context: Québec City’s economy is strong and diverse. Unemployment is low (~4.5% in spring 2025) despite provincial headwinds apciq.ca. Growth is fueled by public-sector jobs, a rising tech and tourism sector, and strong social cohesion (second-highest GDP per capita growth in Canada from 2001–2019 policyoptions.irpp.org). The CMA population reached ~880,875 in 2023 (adding +22,275 people) quebecinternational.ca, driven almost entirely by immigration and interprovincial gains quebecinternational.ca. In 2023 Québec City was the only major Québec region with positive net migration against Montréal and other areas quebecinternational.ca. However, demographic projections warn the city will age rapidly, and recent immigration caps are already flattening growth: in Q2 2025 Québec’s population growth hit zero desjardins.com.
- Housing Supply & Construction: Municipalities and developers are ramping up construction. Many new projects, especially multi-unit rental buildings, are underway. Provincial forecasts (Desjardins) project Québec-wide housing starts to climb ~10% in 2025 desjardins.com (reflecting starts in the Québec City region as well). Federal measures like the new GST/HST rebate for purpose-built rentals and local development incentives are intended to boost supply desjardins.com. Still, land, labor and costs remain bottlenecks.
- Policy Environment: Interest Rates: The Bank of Canada (BoC) has begun easing. By Sept 2025 the policy rate was cut to ~3.25% (from 5% in 2024) canadianrealestatemagazine.ca. Variable mortgage rates are already falling, and fixed rates are forecast to edge down in late 2025 desjardins.com. Lower borrowing costs are encouraging buyers, but experts caution that mortgage rates may not decline as fast as the policy rate (Bond yields play a role) desjardins.com. Immigration: New federal and Québec regulations (lower caps on temporary workers and students) are expected to slow migrant inflows desjardins.com, cooling long-run housing demand. Housing Policy: No Québec-specific foreign-buyer tax or rent control changes are in effect, but federal affordable-housing programs (and municipal land-use plans) aim to ease the shortage.
- Urban Planning: Major city projects will shape the market. Notably, Québec City is planning a 19 km modern tramway (“TramCité”) connecting western suburbs (Cap-Rouge) to Charlesbourg via downtown cdpqinfra.com. This transit investment is explicitly intended to “accelerate real estate development” and boost economic activity in the region cdpqinfra.com. Other infrastructure (schools, roads, heritage tourism improvements) and zoning changes for higher-density housing are also in discussion.
Residential Real Estate (2025)
The residential market in Québec City remains wildly seller-favourable in 2025. Tight supply and strong demand have driven prices to new highs. According to the Québec real estate board (QPAREB), July 2025 saw 744 home sales – up 12% from a year earlier apciq.ca. Single-family homes were the strongest segment (+15% sales), and condominiums and plexes also climbed (sales +8% and +5% respectively) apciq.ca. This surge was partly led by the Northern Periphery suburbs, but all zones (including the downtown agglomeration and south shore) saw fewer listings than usual. In fact, QPAREB reports active listings are down about 28% from July 2024 apciq.ca.
With so few listings, bidding wars have reappeared. Over 40% of 2025 offers exceeded asking price by 5% or more apciq.ca. As a result, median sale prices are skyrocketing. The all-time median for a single-family home in July 2025 was about CA$453,500 (up 21% year-over-year) apciq.ca. Average selling prices (all property types) are similarly up about 10–15%. The Greater Québec City Area led Canada in price growth in early 2025 – far outpacing Toronto and Vancouver – as affordability constraints and low borrowing costs funnel buyers to this more affordable market globalpropertyguide.com. Royal LePage notes that pent-up demand and scarce inventory have made Québec one of the “surprising resilient” markets in Canada entering 2025 globalpropertyguide.com.
Rental Market: The rental sector is even tighter than home ownership. CMHC data for late 2024 show the overall vacancy rate at only 0.8% assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca – essentially zero availability. In central neighbourhoods and many suburbs, vacancies were virtually zero, so landlords had no pressure to lower rents assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca. The effect is rapid rent inflation: by Fall 2024 the average two-bedroom rent exceeded $1,000 in every submarket assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Lease turnover rents were up ~12% year-over-year, far outpacing wage growth. More than 80% of new housing starts in Q1 2025 were purpose-built rentals desjardins.com, and even with that added supply rents are still rising (albeit at a moderating pace). Vacancy did tick up slightly in 2024 on the south shore (to ~1.9%) due to new projects assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca, but the overall market remains extremely tight. Many tenants – especially low-income households – face very few options, which may eventually spur pressure for rent regulations or more low-rent builds.
Commercial Real Estate
Office Market: Québec City’s downtown office market is beginning a recovery. After a slump in 2023–Q1 2025 (with high vacancy and sublet space), Q2 2025 saw a net absorption rebound. CBRE reports a 40 basis-point drop in vacancy in just one quarter cbre.ca. Class A office buildings led this turnaround: downtown Class A space has recorded two consecutive quarters of positive leasing for the first time since 2021 cbre.ca. Rents for top-tier office space averaged about $16.50/sq.ft in Q2 2025 – roughly 7% above the regional average cbre.ca. Notably, the amount of sublet space on the market shrank by over 50% year-over-year cbre.ca, an indication that some tenants are committing to space again. Investors are also more active: 2024 saw resumed office sales and stable net rents ($7–$8/sq.ft in prior reports) canadianrealestatemagazine.ca. Overall, the office sector appears poised for gradual stabilization if economic conditions hold.
Industrial Market: The Greater Québec City industrial sector has remained relatively resilient. Availability has risen only modestly despite new development, and leasing activity has been steady. Analysts note that cap rates drifted up slightly in 2024 as yields normalized, but limited new product delivery means that rental rate growth has continued and vacancy rates have mostly “normalized” rather than spiking canadianrealestatemagazine.ca. In short, demand for warehousing and light industrial (driven by manufacturing, logistics and some e-commerce) has roughly kept pace with supply. Land prices are high, so new large-scale projects are slower, but small infill developments are leasing up quickly. Overall, Québec City’s industrial market shows classic signs of balancing supply and demand – rents growing, cap rates stabilizing – and is likely to remain steady in the near term canadianrealestatemagazine.ca.
Retail/Other: Although no detailed stats are available, retail properties (especially grocery-anchored centres) are reported to be fully leased, reflecting steady consumer spending and tourism. The city’s historic district and new tourist attractions help sustain retail foot traffic. Strata/tourist condo sales in Old Québec have also remained strong, benefiting from high visitor numbers (see Transportation/Infrastructure below).
Market Dynamics & Demographics
The Québec City market is underpinned by generally positive supply-demand fundamentals.
- Economy & Jobs: Québec City’s economy is diverse and outperforming many provincial regions. It has a large government sector (province & federal), growing tech and insurance industries, and a booming tourism/culture cluster. This has produced a tight labour market: unemployment in the region has been around 4.5% since spring 2025 apciq.ca, well below the provincial average. By contrast, regions exposed to U.S. tariffed industries (e.g. lumber, aluminum) saw job losses, pushing Québec’s overall unemployment from 5.7% to 6.3% through mid-2025 apciq.ca. In Québec City this has not happened, so income growth and consumer confidence remain relatively high. Strong job prospects (especially for young adults) continue to attract renters and homebuyers.
- Population Trends: Québec City’s CMA population was ~880,875 in 2023 – a 2.6% increase (22,275 people) over 2022 quebecinternational.ca. Crucially, nearly 90% of that growth came from international immigration quebecinternational.ca (with another 12% from interprovincial migrants), as births remain very low (natural increase only ~0.9% of growth) quebecinternational.ca. The bulk of new arrivals are young adults: in 2023 the region gained over 11,800 working-age residents (20–64) and 3,250 people aged 15–24 quebecinternational.ca. This has bolstered demand for housing, schools, and services. The city’s social cohesion and low crime have made it attractive to families and newcomers. However, demographic projections show this growth is unlikely to continue at current rates. Provincial policy is cutting immigration targets, and even national data note that Québec’s population growth effectively halted in Q2 2025 desjardins.com. Meanwhile the population is aging quickly. By 2030 the median age in Québec City will climb markedly, so demand for smaller units and retirement housing will rise.
- Construction Activity: To catch up with demand, both the public and private sectors are scaling up building. Developers are topping permits for new subdivisions and multi-family complexes. Québec International economists expect starts to rise ~10% in 2025 desjardins.com, particularly in purpose-built rental and mid-rise condo projects. The federal government’s housing plan (e.g. GST/HST rebate for new rentals) and municipal incentives are intended to accelerate this. For example, recent announcements include funding dozens of mixed-use projects and affordable rental schemes. Nonetheless, supply remains tight because land release and permitting take time. The shortage of entry-level homes (studios, 1‑bed units) suggests a market mismatch: many builders focus on higher-end condos, leaving a gap at the bottom end.
- Urban Development: Long-term land-use planning is evolving to accommodate growth. The city and province are investing in major infrastructure that will influence real estate patterns. Notably, Québec is designing a 19-km light-rail/tramway (“TramCité”) linking Cap-Rouge and Sainte-Foy (west of the city) through downtown and Saint-Roch to Charlesbourg cdpqinfra.com. This project explicitly aims to “accelerate real estate development” along the corridor cdpqinfra.com. Other civic plans involve infill and densification in the central neighbourhoods, and preservation of green belts on Île d’Orléans to manage sprawl. These initiatives will shape where housing and commercial growth occur, likely boosting values along major transit routes.
Policy & Regulatory Environment
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada’s rate cuts in 2025 (from 5% to 3.25% by Sept) are lowering borrowing costs nationwide canadianrealestatemagazine.ca. Québec City borrowers are poised to benefit: variable mortgages adjust quickly, and fixed rates are expected to drift downward in late 2025 desjardins.com. Lower rates should support continued homebuying in 2026, though analysts warn that global bond yields could limit how low fixed rates actually go (as noted by Desjardins) desjardins.com. Overall, policy easing should sustain demand, even as mortgage stress-test rules remain in effect.
Immigration Policy: On the regulatory side, Québec’s recent immigration rollbacks (smaller student/work visas) are a headwind. Nationally, immigration drove nearly all population growth in 2025 (first time) desjardins.com. Québec has signaled plans to tighten targets, which will blunt the influx into Québec City. This could slow long-term housing demand relative to earlier projections. Planners must adjust: for example, projects targeting newcomers (student housing, entry-level apartments) may need re-evaluation if demand plateaus.
Housing Policy: There are no major new provincial rules directly targeting the real estate market (e.g. no foreign-buyers tax yet), but both Ottawa and Québec are pursuing housing affordability. Measures include subsidies for affordable rentals and incentives for conversions (office-to-housing). For instance, the federal government’s new rebate on GST/HST for new rental units desjardins.com and Québec’s programs for low-income housing aim to ease pressure. At the same time, rental regulations are evolving: the Québec housing tribunal typically allows rent increases around 3–4% (recent annual average ~3.8%), and there is political pressure for stricter controls if affordability worsens. New building codes (energy efficiency) and environmental rules will raise development costs. Overall, policy shifts will slowly add supply, but affordability remains a major challenge as described by analysts desjardins.com.
Outlook & Projections (2025–2030)
Looking ahead, most experts expect Québec City’s market to remain firm but moderating over the next 5 years. Near-term (2025–2026), prices are projected to stay at record highs. Desjardins forecasts that with limited new supply and pent-up demand, housing prices will keep climbing (albeit more slowly) through 2026 desjardins.com. The bank anticipates a modest rebound in construction to 10% above 2024, which should help stabilize inventory, but cautions that affordability will erode without dramatic new supply desjardins.com desjardins.com.
By the late 2020s (2027–2030) the outlook branches. On the positive side, if the tramway and other infrastructure projects are built as planned, they could spur revitalization of underused areas and create new districts (supporting property values there). A steady Québec economy with diversified industries should continue to attract workers and families over the long run. Continued low interest rates (relative to history) could also encourage some buyers. In the multi-family sector, ongoing tight rents and tax incentives suggest developers will keep building apartments, making rental an attractive opportunity for investors.
However, there are significant risks. A further slowdown in immigration could plateau population growth, reducing future demand; indeed Québec projections now call for almost stagnant population by 2030 desjardins.com. Any resurgence of inflation or a turn in global interest rates could dampen demand or trigger price corrections. Geopolitical tensions (new tariffs or trade barriers) could hit Québec’s export industries and weaken the job market. Supply-side, if developers overbuild in the rental or condo segments at the same time that buyer demand shifts, it could temporarily lift vacancies or slow rent gains – especially in peripheral areas. Finally, urban policy changes (e.g. new rent controls or stricter environmental rules) could alter profitability for owners and developers.
Market opportunities lie in the rental and multifamily sectors (where demand is unrelenting), as well as in under-the-radar neighbourhoods primed for redevelopment (downtown Québec and Saint-Roch have been reborn in recent years). The prospect of the tramway and other transit upgrades may open new zones for investment. On the flip side, challenges include rising construction costs (materials and labor), diminishing affordability for middle-income buyers, and potential stagnation if too many homes stay out of reach.
In summary, 2025 will likely be remembered as a peak in Québec City’s boom, but not necessarily a bubble. Prices and sales are at exceptional levels due to short supply and strong demand apciq.ca assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Future growth appears set to moderate, with some easing as more units come online and demographics shift. Yet even through 2030, Québec City is expected to outperform many North American markets thanks to its solid economy and focused planning. Homebuyers and investors should watch closely for any signs of oversupply or policy changes, but overall the market’s long-term fundamentals remain supportive – a resilient labour market, continued attractiveness to migrants (albeit slower), and deliberate urban investment.
Sources: QPAREB housing reports apciq.ca apciq.ca; Desjardins Economic Studies desjardins.com desjardins.com; CMHC Rental Market Report assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca; CBRE Québec City research cbre.ca; Québec International demography study quebecinternational.ca quebecinternational.ca; Canada Mortgage & Housing (CMHC) forecasts; Québec government economic bulletins cdn-contenu.quebec.ca; real estate and news analyses apciq.ca canadianrealestatemagazine.ca cdpqinfra.com globalpropertyguide.com.
