- Balanced Market in 2025: Ottawa’s housing market is stabilizing. In August 2025 the average home price was about $686,500 (up ~4% YoY) with a median of $630,000 (up 3.3%) wowa.ca wowa.ca. Sales (~1,236 in Aug 2025) rose ~12% YoY, while new listings also climbed – yielding a Sales-to-New-Listings ratio (SNLR) of ~58%, a textbook “balanced” market wowa.ca. Months-of-inventory (~3.2) is near historical norms, easing the bidding-war frenzy of 2021–22 wowa.ca.
- Resale Price Trend: After a frenzy in 2021–2022, Ottawa home prices are showing modest growth. The benchmark price (typical home) held around $633,000 in mid-2025 (nearly flat from July) and about 9% below the 2022 peak wowa.ca. Average sales prices have slipped slightly in recent months (–1.2% MoM in Aug 2025) but remain higher than a year ago wowa.ca. By end-2024 average sale prices were ~$692,400 and are forecast to reach ~$734,000 in 2025 ottawa.citynews.ca. Central 1 Credit Union predicts Ottawa prices will roughly hold flat in 2025 (~+$640.5k, +0.4% from 2024) and then rise 2–3% per year to about $658k in 2026 and ~$679k by 2027 central1.com.
- Sales & Inventory: Ottawa sales are healthy, with 2024 and early 2025 showing year-over-year increases in transactions. For example, Aug 2025 sales were 12.4% above Aug 2024 wowa.ca. Listings have grown to the highest levels since 2018. Active listings numbered ~3,970 in Aug 2025, up 13% YoY (about 3.2 months supply) wowa.ca. This extra supply gives buyers more choices, slowing price appreciation.
- Housing Segments: Single-family homes remain the most expensive, averaging ~$839,000 in Aug 2025 (up ~4.1% from a year ago) with a benchmark price ~$700,100 (+1.5% YoY) wowa.ca. Townhouses averaged ~$556,000 (+3.5% YoY) wowa.ca. Condo/apartment prices averaged ~$408,000 (–2.8% YoY) with a benchmark ~$412,300 (–1.1% YoY) wowa.ca, reflecting a slight cooling as new condo supply enters the market.
- Neighborhood Hotspots: Urban infill areas (Centretown, The Glebe, Hintonburg, Westboro) remain popular for condos and older homes, especially with commuters and first-time buyers. Suburbs are booming: Kanata–Stittsville, Barrhaven and Orléans grew fastest as families and remote workers seek larger, affordable homes mattrichling.com. Emerging areas include Vanier (affordable infill) and Riverside South. (See In-depth analysis below for more neighborhood insights.)
- Rental Market Tightens: Ottawa’s rental market is very tight. Vacancy for purpose-built rentals has been historically low (≈1–2%), though CMHC projects a small rise to ~~2.9% by 2025 as population growth slows ottawa.citynews.ca. Average two-bedroom rents hit ~$1,880 in 2024, and are projected ~$1,960 in 2025 ottawa.citynews.ca. Despite new purpose-built rental completions (nearly 3,700 units in 2024) and condo units shifting to rentals, demand from government, students, and tech workers keeps occupancy high (~97% equiton.com) and rental rates rising.
- Commercial Real Estate: Ottawa’s commercial market is steady but reflects broader trends. Office: Vacancy remains elevated (~12–13% in mid-2025) due to hybrid work and some firms downsizing cbre.ca. The Downtown core saw a recent drop to ~13.3% vacancy (70 bps Q-o-Q) thanks to lease renewals (e.g. 160 Elgin) cbre.ca. Suburban office (Kanata etc.) is slightly higher (~13.3%) cbre.ca. Retail: Ottawa’s retail vacancy was ~3.5% in H1 2025 (up from 2.8% in late 2024), driven by empty space at a few malls like Rideau Centre assets.cushmanwakefield.com. In contrast, neighbourhood/community malls are very tight (<2% vacancy) assets.cushmanwakefield.com. Industrial: Extremely strong. Ottawa industrial vacancy is low (~4.4% as of Q2 2025, down from Q1) assets.cushmanwakefield.com. All industrial submarkets (Orléans, Stittsville, etc.) saw positive absorption as manufacturers and distributors expanded assets.cushmanwakefield.com. Ottawa’s industrial rents are rising ($16.75 psf in Q2 2025, up slightly) assets.cushmanwakefield.com.
- 2025–2027 Forecast: Leading forecasts project modest growth in Ottawa. Central 1 (Ontario outlook) sees sales dipping ~–1.8% in 2025, then rising +3.9% (2026) and +5.1% (2027) in the Ottawa area central1.com. Prices edge up slowly: +0.4% in 2025, +2.7% in 2026, +3.2% in 2027 central1.com. RBC Economic Research broadly expects Ontario prices to falter later in 2025 (–0.7% in 2026) due to high inventory rbc.com, but Ottawa’s market is less overheated than Toronto or Vancouver. Homeownership affordability will improve slightly as mortgage rates ease and wages rise, unlocking some pent-up demand rbc.com rbc.com. CMHC similarly predicts sales/prices rebound by 2026-27 as economic conditions improve assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca.
- Key Influences: Interest rates and affordability are paramount. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates around 2.75% through 2026 rbc.com, so borrowing costs remain higher than recent lows. Immigration policy has a big local impact: recent federal cuts to immigration (intended to slow population growth) will dampen rental demand and housing sales growth ottawa.citynews.ca rbc.com. Conversely, Ottawa’s tech and government employment boom underpins demand. Ottawa’s tech sector grew ~51.7% (2018–2023) investottawa.ca, the fastest of any major North American city, anchored by Kanata North (540+ companies, 33,000 jobs) investottawa.ca. Stable public-sector jobs, healthcare and education also insulate Ottawa from ups and downs. Infrastructure projects – the O-Train LRT expansion, hospital upgrades, highways – will add jobs and housing in surrounding suburbs over the next decade.
- Investment Opportunities: Ottawa offers a balance of stability and growth. With a strong institutional job base and comparatively affordable prices, investors see steady long-term appreciation. The low rental vacancy (~2–3%) means rental income is secure equiton.com ottawa.citynews.ca. Emerging areas like Stittsville-Kanata and downtown condos (with recent office-to-resi conversions) hold promise for capital gains. Multi-family and purpose-built rentals are in demand, given Ottawa’s young demographics and tech workforce.
- Risks: Price growth is moderating, so flips are less certain. Overbuilding is a concern: Ottawa has many condos under construction, which could cap prices. High interest rates still deter some buyers. The trade war uncertainty (e.g. potential U.S. tariffs) could slow Ontario’s economy, indirectly affecting Ottawa assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Tightened mortgage rules (higher downpayment caps) and slowing population growth (immigration reductions) will constrain demand. Finally, any sharp market shock (recession, bond market changes) would slow activity.
- Expert Views: Local Realtors and economists agree on a “return to normal” Ottawa market. Analysts (e.g. Matt Richling) note Ottawa is “no longer a scorching sellers’ market,” with condos and urban infill hot, but broadly “balanced” conditions mattrichling.com mattrichling.com. CMHC and RBC forecasts foresee only gentle ups and downs through 2027 rbc.com central1.com. The consensus is for steady, moderate appreciation (roughly income-aligned, ~1–3% per year) rather than booms or busts rbc.com mattrichling.com.
Sources: Authoritative market reports and news (CMHC, RBC, Cushman & Wakefield, CBRE, CityNews, Central 1 Credit Union, etc.) have been used to compile these figures and forecasts wowa.ca ottawa.citynews.ca assets.cushmanwakefield.com cbre.ca assets.cushmanwakefield.com equiton.com rbc.com.
