Montreal Real Estate Market 2025: Record Highs, New Rules & What’s Next

September 27, 2025
Montreal Real Estate Market 2025: Record Highs, New Rules & What’s Next
  • Record Home Prices: Montreal’s housing market hit all-time highs in 2025. The average home sold for ~$669,000, about 8–9% higher than a year ago, marking a robust rebound in prices wowa.ca. Median single-family home prices reached $633K (+7% YoY), condos $422K (+4%), and plexes $840K (+10%) wowa.ca, underscoring broad-based gains.
  • Sales Surge Back: Buyer activity has resurged. August 2025 saw 3,330 homes sold, up 12% year-on-year, the most active August since 2021 apciq.ca. This was the 20th straight month of rising sales apciq.ca, a dramatic turnaround from the cooldown of 2022–23.
  • Balanced but Competitive Market: Inventory grew modestly (active listings up 4% YoY), keeping conditions tight apciq.ca. The sales-to-new-listings ratio hovers ~60%, borderline seller’s market wowa.ca. Turnkey homes still spark bidding wars, though buyers are increasingly cautious, often inserting conditions as higher rates pinch affordability blog.remax.ca.
  • Commercial Mixed Bag: Office vacancies neared 19% downtown as remote/hybrid work persists 2727coworking.com, pressuring rents and prompting conversions to apartments renx.ca. In contrast, industrial and retail real estate remain resilient. Industrial spaces report low vacancies (~4–5%) amid logistics demand, while retail availability fell to just 2.4% by late 2024 jll.com as foot traffic rebounded, indicating a robust retail sector.
  • New Rules & Policies: Canada extended its foreign-buyer ban on homes through 2026 canada.ca to curb speculation. The GST was cut from new rentals to spur apartment construction canada.ca. Montreal enacted one of the toughest Airbnb crackdowns, banning short-term rentals outside summer months to free up housing thelogic.co. Banks also eased mortgage stress by allowing 30-year amortizations in some cases, but first-time buyers still struggle with prices far outpacing incomes mortgagesandbox.com.
  • Hot vs. Not Neighborhoods: Price gaps are wide across the city. Elite enclaves like Outremont and Westmount command prices far above city averages, accessible only to wealthy buyers centris.ca. In Q1 2025, Mont-Royal’s average house cost a steep $2.02M centris.ca. Meanwhile, outer districts remain more affordable – e.g. Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles houses average ~$572K, roughly 40% below the island-wide mean centris.ca and attracting surging interest (sales +22% YoY). Up-and-coming areas like Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve also offer relative bargains (houses ~$603K, condos ~$427K) amidst ongoing revitalization centris.ca. By contrast, trendy central neighborhoods like Le Plateau saw flat condo prices (+0.3% YoY) suggesting they’ve hit an affordability ceiling centris.ca, while the condo-heavy Sud-Ouest (Griffintown) even dipped –1.8% centris.ca due to abundant new supply.
  • Economic & Demographic Drivers: Population growth bolstered housing demand in 2024–25 – Greater Montreal added an estimated 90k+ residents in a year statistique.quebec.ca, fueled by immigration and its relative affordability. However, Quebec is now curbing temporary immigration, and forecasts warn Montreal’s population could flatline or even dip ~5% by 2030 montreal.citynews.ca. Despite slower growth ahead, housing needs will persist as the population ages and smaller households proliferate montreal.citynews.ca. Job market: Montreal’s economy faced headwinds in 2025 (Canada’s GDP stalled and Quebec’s GDP slipped in Q2 apciq.ca), yet housing demand defied a mild recession. The city’s comparatively low home prices (≈50% cheaper than Vancouver’s wowa.ca) meant owners were better able to absorb high interest rates desjardins.com. Interest rates remained elevated through most of 2025 (~6% mortgages), crimping affordability, but the first Bank of Canada rate cut in late 2025 has set the stage for relief blog.remax.ca. Many younger buyers remain priced out without family help; a median-income household qualifying for a ~$260K mortgage would need an enormous down payment (>$60K) to afford even a condo mortgagesandbox.com.
  • 3–5 Year Outlook: Experts anticipate moderating growth rather than another boom. 2025 is on track for solid price gains (mid-single-digit increases) as pent-up demand is unleashed with slowly easing rates cmhc-schl.gc.ca. By 2026–27, price growth is expected to slow to more sustainable levels cmhc-schl.gc.ca once interest rates normalize and more buyers are satisfied. Quebec’s market outperformance may continue in the near term – analysts note Montreal entered 2025 with sales and construction rising even as Toronto and Vancouver lagged desjardins.com cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Historically high sales in Quebec are forecast, with price growth above the national average through 2025 cmhc-schl.gc.ca thanks to affordability and policy support. Looking further out, risks remain: a weaker economy or job losses could undercut demand, and some observers caution Montreal is at only a “moderate risk” of correction mortgagesandbox.com. On the supply side, housing starts are expected to slow after 2025 (especially condo projects) as developers grapple with higher costs and wary investors cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Fewer new condos in the pipeline could tighten supply by the late 2020s, potentially propping up prices. Overall, most forecasts see balanced, steady growth for Montreal over the next 3–5 years – a period of adjustment to higher borrowing costs, offset by the city’s enduring draws (diverse economy, influx of skilled workers, and lower cost base than Canada’s other big cities).

Overview: Residential & Commercial Markets in 2025

Montreal’s real estate market in 2025 is dynamic, with residential and commercial sectors charting different courses. On the housing side, momentum has swung upward after a brief cooldown. Sales volume and prices are climbing again: by August 2025, home sales in the Montreal Census Metro Area (CMA) were 12% higher than a year prior, marking nearly two years of continuous growth apciq.ca. This recovery followed the interest-rate shock of 2022–23, which had briefly tamed bidding wars and caused a dip in values. Now, home prices have not only rebounded but set new records, with the average sale price reaching ~$668K – the highest ever for Montreal wowa.ca. Unlike the frothy surges seen in Toronto or Vancouver, Montreal’s ascent has been a steadier climb, aided by its greater affordability and sustained demand.

In commercial real estate, 2025 painted a more nuanced picture. The office market remains the soft spot: downtown office vacancy has hovered in the high teens (≈18–19%) through early 2025 2727coworking.com, an unprecedented level for Montreal. After the pandemic, many companies downsized space as remote and hybrid work became entrenched, leaving a glut of empty offices. There are signs of bottoming out – Q2 2025 saw a slight decline in vacancy for the first time in nine quarters as some large tenants (e.g. PwC) inked new leases cbre.ca. Still, roughly 1 in 5 office spaces downtown is vacant 2727coworking.com, forcing landlords to get creative. Notably, developers have started converting obsolete offices into residential units – for example, older towers and even former hotels in west downtown are being transformed into rental apartments and student housing renx.ca renx.ca. This trend, supported by government grants and rising housing demand, could slowly chip away at the office surplus in coming years.

On the other hand, industrial real estate continues to be a star performer. Montreal’s industrial sector – including warehouses, logistics facilities, and manufacturing space – enjoyed strong demand through 2025, thanks to e-commerce growth and a resilient manufacturing base. Vacancy rates that hit historic lows (~1–2%) during the pandemic have inched up as new supply delivered, but remain low by historical standards (around 4% as of Q1 2025) collierscanada.com. Rents for prime industrial space are still climbing (expected +8–12% in 2025) amid limited availability and competition for modern warehouses joerullier.com. Investors continue to favor industrial assets for their stable income, although record-high construction costs have tempered the breakneck pace of new development.

Meanwhile, retail real estate in Montreal has proved surprisingly robust. Far from the retail apocalypse some feared, the city’s shopping corridors and malls bounced back in 2024–25. By late 2024, retail space availability had shrunk to 2.4% (from 2.7% mid-year) – an extremely tight market jll.com. Rising consumer spending and the return of office workers and tourists have bolstered foot traffic. Public transit ridership is back above 80% of pre-pandemic levels, and Montreal’s airport even saw 8% more passengers in 2024 than in 2019, one of the strongest recoveries in Canada jll.com. This increased mobility translated into more shoppers on Sainte-Catherine Street and in neighbourhood high streets. Mall leasing also picked up, with new international brands (e.g. Mango, Nike) opening stores in major centres jll.com. Effective retail rents did cool off in 2024 (+1.1% vs +3.9% in 2023) jll.com, reflecting landlords’ eagerness to fill space, but overall the retail sector’s outlook is positive. As one commercial report noted, Montreal’s retail market is tightening across all property types and areas, aided by minimal new construction and growing tenant demand jll.com jll.com. In short, while offices struggle, industrial and retail segments of Montreal commercial real estate remain healthy and in some cases expanding, balancing the overall market performance.

Residential Market Trends and Pricing in 2025

Home prices in 2025 – After a slight correction in 2022–23, Montreal’s home prices are firmly on an upswing in 2025. The average home price in the metro area hit roughly $660K–$670K by mid-2025, eclipsing the previous peak from 2022 wowa.ca. This represents high-single-digit appreciation (~7–9% YoY) wowa.ca – a pace outpacing inflation and incomes, but more measured than the frenzied 20%+ gains seen in 2021’s boom. It’s notable that Montreal’s price growth outperformed that of other major Canadian cities this year: while Toronto and Vancouver grappled with flat or sliding prices in some quarters, Montreal notched new highs wowa.ca. Analysts attribute this to Montreal’s relative affordability and supply dynamics. Even after a decade of rapid appreciation (Montreal’s benchmark home price is up 105% since 2015, far more than Toronto’s 67% wowa.ca), the city’s typical home (~$570K benchmark wowa.ca) still costs 40–50% less than in Toronto or Vancouver wowa.ca. This gap means Montreal had less “froth” to lose when interest rates jumped, and it left more room for prices to climb back as demand returned.

By property type, single-family homes (detached) saw the strongest price gains in 2025. The median price for a detached house in the Montreal CMA hit $633,250 (August data), about +7% vs. August 2024 apciq.ca. In fact, house prices on the Island of Montreal rose even faster (+10% YoY) apciq.ca, indicating intense competition for limited supply in the city core. Families and move-up buyers, often with existing equity to leverage, drove this segment apciq.ca. Many desirable houses continued to receive multiple offers, especially if turnkey and well-located, leading to sales above asking. Homes requiring work or priced ambitiously, however, could sit longer – a new reality as buyers become more price-sensitive and interest costs bite blog.remax.ca blog.remax.ca.

Condominiums in Montreal had a more modest trajectory in 2025. The median condo price (~$422,000 as of August) was up about 3–4% year-over-year wowa.ca, lagging the detached market. Ample supply is one factor: Montreal has seen a wave of condo construction over the past decade, and many units presold during the low-rate era are completing now. Indeed, 2025 is a peak year for condo completions, which is contributing to a rise in active listings and giving buyers more choices mortgagesandbox.com cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Downtown, investor-owned condos have come under pressure – some investors who bought pre-construction are now selling, squeezed by interest costs outpacing rental yields cmhc-schl.gc.ca. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), record new condo completions in 2025 and softening rents will likely keep Montreal’s condo price growth in check cmhc-schl.gc.ca. In fact, certain condo-heavy areas like the Griffintown district (Sud-Ouest) saw slight price declines this year (–1.8% YoY for condos) centris.ca. That said, condos remain the most attainable option for first-time buyers, and demand for well-priced units is steady. Outer-suburb condos and those in mid-priced neighborhoods experienced decent appreciation (e.g. condos in Côte-des-Neiges/NDG jumped ~+17% YoY on average centris.ca, possibly reflecting young professionals snapping up units in those areas). Overall, Montreal’s condo market is balanced – an abundance of listings means buyers can take their time, and sellers are adjusting expectations, sometimes accepting below asking offers or longer closing periods blog.remax.ca.

The plex market – Montreal’s signature duplex/triplex multi-family homes – had a particularly strong year. Small income properties (2–5 units) saw renewed investor interest as rental demand in the city stays high. The median plex price around $840K was up 10% YoY wowa.ca, outpacing other categories. August sales of plexes surged 23% year-on-year apciq.ca, leading all segments. With higher interest rates, new investors need larger down payments for these properties, but many are attracted by rising rents and the desire for rental income to offset mortgage costs. Moreover, some would-be homebuyers are choosing to “house hack” by buying a plex – living in one unit and renting out others – as a way to afford homeownership in the city. This trend helped make plexes one of the fastest-moving property types in 2025.

In terms of market balance, Montreal’s residential sector in 2025 can be characterized as tight but not overheated. The sales-to-new-listings ratio in Montreal stayed around 50–60%, indicating balanced to seller-leaning conditions wowa.ca. Active listings have risen slightly (up ~4–5% from 2024) apciq.ca, thanks in part to more condo inventory. Buyers have a few more options than during the pandemic frenzy, and properties take a bit longer to sell on average (around 60–70 days on market for both houses and condos as of Q1 centris.ca). Notably, conditional offers have made a comeback in offers – a stark change from the unconditional, “buy now, inspect later” mindset of 2021. In 2025, sellers increasingly accept offers conditional on financing or the sale of the buyer’s current home, reflecting a more level negotiating field blog.remax.ca blog.remax.ca.

However, the overall trend in 2025 is one of revival and confidence in the housing market. The fact that Montreal’s average home price is ~41% higher than five years ago wowa.ca, despite intervening interest rate hikes and a pandemic, speaks to the persistent demand and limited supply. Much of this demand is organic – driven by Montrealers upgrading homes or new households being formed – rather than speculative flipping or foreign capital. The city’s comparative affordability (with mortgages here often half the size of those in Toronto for a similar home) gave it a cushion; owners were generally able to weather the rate increases better, and fewer were forced to sell in distress desjardins.com. Thus, Montreal didn’t see a steep price correction in 2023 like some markets did, and it entered 2025 on stronger footing. If anything, Montreal’s housing market has been defying economic gravity to an extent – even as Canada’s GDP contracted slightly in mid-2025 and recession worries grew, Montreal real estate stayed “exceptionally dynamic,” buoyed by factors like slightly lower mortgage rates, extended loan amortizations, and sheer housing need outstripping supply apciq.ca apciq.ca.

Investment Opportunities and Growth Areas

Despite high prices, Montreal in 2025 continues to present attractive opportunities for real estate investment, both in traditional properties and emerging niches. Investors – ranging from local landlords to large institutions – are strategically targeting segments and locations poised for growth:

1. Rental Housing & Multifamily Development: With rents climbing and a persistent housing shortage, purpose-built rentals have become a hot investment area. The federal removal of GST on new rental construction (enacted late 2023) immediately improved project economics for developers canada.ca, and Montreal stands to benefit given its high proportion of renters. We’re seeing renewed interest in constructing apartment buildings and converting other property types into housing. For example, some developers have turned older office buildings into rental apartments or student residences downtown renx.ca, capitalizing on vacant office floors and strong demand from university students. The city’s low rental vacancy and the influx of students and newcomers make multifamily assets (from small plexes to large apartment blocks) a relatively safe bet – a steady income stream with potential for capital appreciation as land values rise.

2. Up-and-Coming Neighborhoods: Investors are also looking beyond Montreal’s traditional upscale neighborhoods and eyeing emerging areas with growth potential. Two notable zones are the Southwest borough and the East End. The Southwest (areas like Verdun, Saint-Henri, Pointe-St-Charles) has been on the rise for years and continues to attract young professionals and families, given its new amenities and transit (the new REM light-rail stations and existing metro lines improve access). Meanwhile, East End districts such as Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Mercier, and even farther east in Rivière-des-Prairies are in focus. These areas offer more affordable entry prices – often 20–40% below island averages centris.ca – and are undergoing revitalization. The Centris Q1 report highlighted Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles as high-demand for single-family homes, with views on listings up 9% and sales surging centris.ca. Investors see potential as these neighborhoods add services and as infrastructure (like extensions of metro lines or improved highways) makes them more accessible. The East End also benefits from city programs aimed at stimulating development in historically under-invested areas. Over the next few years, areas along major corridors like Notre-Dame Street East and around the Olympic Park are slated for mixed-use projects and could yield solid returns for early investors.

3. Commercial Niches – Industrial, Data Centers, and More: On the commercial side, industrial real estate remains an “all-star” investment in Montreal. Warehousing and logistics facilities are in short supply, and e-commerce companies, distributors, and manufacturers are willing to pay premium rents to be in or near the city. As mentioned, industrial vacancy is very low and rents are rising, ensuring dependable income growth for owners. Investors who acquired industrial assets pre-2020 have seen valuations soar, and even at today’s higher prices, many funds continue to scout for Montreal warehouses given expectations of 8–12% rent growth in 2025 joerullier.com. Additionally, new economy property types are gaining traction – for instance, data centers have emerged as a desirable asset class. With Montreal’s cool climate (good for cooling servers) and cheap electricity, data center developments are expanding, attracting capital from specialized investors. Cold-storage facilities (serving the food supply chain) are another niche highlighted as a “best bet” in Canadian real estate for 2025 pwc.com, and Montreal’s port and agri-food industry make it an ideal location. These niche property types blur the line between real estate and infrastructure and are seen as high-growth opportunities in an otherwise matured market pwc.com.

4. Purpose-Built Rentals & Student Housing: Montreal’s huge student population (four major universities and numerous colleges) underpins strong demand for student housing – an investment segment now garnering more attention. Companies have started converting or building residences tailored for students and young professionals. For example, a landmark downtown office building was acquired to create 69 units of student housing by mid-2025 costar.com. With the Airbnb crackdown, many investors who previously did short-term rentals may pivot to student or long-term rentals, which could boost supply of legal rental units. The city and province have also signaled support for affordable housing projects, offering low-interest loans and incentives. Some savvy investors are partnering with nonprofits or government programs to develop mixed-income housing, which, while yielding slightly lower returns, comes with grants or subsidies that lower risk.

5. Transit-Oriented Development (TOD): Montreal’s ongoing transit expansions, notably the Réseau Express Métropolitain (REM), are creating micro-hotspots for real estate. The REM’s first segments opened in 2023–2024 (linking downtown to the South Shore), and future branches will reach the airport and West Island. Land and properties around REM stations (e.g. Brossard on the South Shore, and future West Island stops like Pointe-Claire) are appreciating as developers plan new condos, retail and office hubs to leverage the improved connectivity. Investors seeking growth may target these station areas early. Similarly, any progress on the long-discussed Blue Line metro extension in the east could lift real estate in neighborhoods along the proposed route.

6. Creative Reuse & Sustainability: An emerging opportunity is the conversion and reuse of existing properties in response to market shifts. Beyond offices-to-housing conversions, there’s interest in turning big-box retail or vacant commercial sites into mixed-use communities. Montreal’s authorities are encouraging such creative redevelopments to address housing needs and reduce urban blight. Additionally, green building retrofits are a growth area, as building owners invest in energy efficiency and sustainable upgrades (partly due to rising carbon regulations). This creates business for firms specializing in retrofitting older Montreal triplexes or commercial buildings with modern, eco-friendly systems – a niche but growing investment angle.

In summary, while the easy money of rapidly rising home prices has faded compared to the frenzy of a few years ago, Montreal’s real estate landscape in 2025 still offers rich opportunities. Investors are just shifting strategy: focusing on income-producing assets (rentals, industrial) and value-add plays (conversions, emerging areas) rather than pure speculation on quick appreciation. The city’s strong fundamentals – diversified economy, increasing population (for now), and relative affordability – make it a compelling place to deploy capital for those with a medium to long-term horizon.

Regulatory and Policy Changes Impacting Real Estate

The real estate market in Montreal (and Canada broadly) in 2025 is being shaped not just by economics, but also by a wave of new regulations and policies. Governments at all levels have introduced measures aiming to tame housing prices, boost supply, or protect consumers – and these are having tangible effects on Montreal’s market dynamics.

Foreign Buyer Ban Extended: One of the most significant policies is the federal ban on foreign buyers of residential property. Initially a two-year prohibition (2023–2024), this ban was extended for another two years to January 1, 2027 canada.ca. Non-resident foreigners and foreign companies are barred from purchasing homes in Canada, with a few exceptions. In Montreal, foreign buying was never as prevalent as in Vancouver or Toronto, but this law further cooled any speculative overseas demand. Luxury segments in Montreal (downtown condos, high-end Westmount homes) likely saw some impact from this ban. By prioritizing domestic buyers, the policy aimed to make it a bit easier for locals to compete, though critics note foreign purchasers were a small slice of the market. Regardless, this extension signals that policymakers are keeping a close eye on housing as an asset class, trying to ensure “homes are for living in, not just investment” – as the Finance Minister put it canada.ca.

Underused Housing Tax: Alongside the buyer ban, the federal government has also implemented an Underused Housing Tax (UHT) – an annual 1% tax on the value of residential properties that are vacant or underused and owned by non-resident, non-Canadians canada.ca. Effective since 2022, the UHT pushes foreign owners either to rent out units or face a tax penalty. In Montreal, which has relatively few empty luxury condos compared to, say, Vancouver, the UHT’s direct impact might be limited. But it complements the broader stance of discouraging speculative holdings of housing. Wealthy international buyers now face both a purchase ban and a holding tax, which together likely dissuaded some outside investment in Montreal real estate over the past two years.

Short-Term Rental Crackdown: On the local level, Montreal introduced one of Canada’s strictest short-term rental regulations in 2024–2025. Citing housing affordability and public safety, the city now prohibits Airbnb-style rentals for most of the year, only allowing short-term rentals during a designated summer window (roughly June 10 to Sept 10) and only for those with proper permits thelogic.co. Effectively, outside of summer festival season, renting out a dwelling for under 31 days is banned across Montreal except in a small downtown tourist zone. This dramatic move came after a deadly fire in an illegal Airbnb in early 2023 galvanized political will to enforce rules. The impact: Investors who bought condos or apartments purely for Airbnb income have had their business model upended. Many of those units are expected to return to the long-term rental market or be sold. This could modestly increase rental supply in desirable areas (easing the vacancy rate slightly) and might put some downward pressure on condo prices in buildings that were Airbnb-heavy. Overall, the short-term rental crackdown is intended to free up housing stock for residents and cool rent prices, and early signs show thousands of Airbnb listings have disappeared, with more rentals appearing on traditional lease websites.

Mortgage and Financing Rules: In 2025, there have been some adjustments to mortgage rules to help buyers cope with high interest rates. For one, Canadian regulators and lenders have shown flexibility by allowing longer amortizations in certain cases. While the standard amortization for insured mortgages remains 25 years, some banks are extending amortizations up to 30 years (or more, in the case of renewals where payments would spike) to prevent defaults apciq.ca. This effectively reduces monthly payments for stretched homeowners, albeit at the cost of slower principal paydown. Additionally, mortgage insurance criteria saw a “relaxation” – for example, in mid-2024, the government slightly raised the cap on insured mortgages (allowing properties over $1 million to qualify in some first-time buyer programs) and introduced a First Home Savings Account to help buyers accumulate down payments canada.ca. Desjardins economists noted that “more relaxed mortgage insurance rules” combined with lower interest rates were convincing some buyers to finally enter the market in 2025 desjardins.com. There’s also political pressure to revisit the mortgage stress test if rates remain high; while no changes have been made as of 2025, the fact that typical 5-year fixed rates dropped from ~5.5% in 2023 to ~4.5% in late 2024 gave buyers slightly more breathing room blog.remax.ca.

Incentives for Homebuilding: To tackle the supply side, various government levels rolled out incentives. The Housing Accelerator Fund (federal) started funding Montreal in 2024 to streamline approvals and encourage faster homebuilding, with targets for adding tens of thousands of units over the next decade canada.ca. The City of Montreal itself has a bylaw (often called the “20-20-20” rule, introduced in 2021) requiring many new residential developments to include a portion of affordable housing, family-sized units, or contributions to city housing funds. This inclusionary zoning policy remains in effect in 2025, meaning developers must account for public benefit in their projects. While it adds to project costs, it aims to ensure new development benefits a cross-section of residents, not just the luxury segment.

Quebec’s provincial government has also been active: it expanded a renovation tax credit to spur renovations of rental buildings (improving quality and safety) and has invested in social housing to address the most vulnerable populations. Additionally, the province announced in 2025 plans to limit temporary foreign workers and international students (part of a broader population strategy) montreal.citynews.ca montreal.citynews.ca, which could indirectly ease some housing demand in Montreal in coming years if fewer newcomers arrive. This policy is controversial, as it pits housing affordability against immigration goals.

Taxation: Montreal’s property taxes and duties saw some tweaks. The city continued with an extra high bracket on its land transfer tax (“welcome tax”) for expensive properties – sales over ~$1.1 million incur a 3%+ tax on the amount above that threshold wowa.ca. In 2025 there was talk (though not yet implemented) of a municipal vacant home tax similar to Toronto’s and Vancouver’s, to discourage units sitting empty. Meanwhile, on the national stage, rental investors now face a federal anti-flipping tax: selling a residential property within 12 months of purchase results in the gain being taxed as business income (100% taxable) unless an exemption applies. This was introduced in 2023 to deter speculative flips and remains in effect, influencing investor behavior to be more long-term.

In sum, 2025’s regulatory landscape is characterized by a heavy push for housing affordability and supply: deter foreign and speculative demand, shift investment toward rentals, protect tenants (e.g. via Airbnb bans), and coax developers to build more and cheaper units. Montreal’s market, traditionally more regulated (Quebec has strong tenant protections and a history of social housing), is absorbing these changes. The immediate outcome is a market that is a bit less frenzied and a bit more oriented to end-users. For example, the extended foreign buyer ban ensures the demand is mostly local, and indeed Montreal’s 2025 resurgence has been driven by local first-time and move-up buyers (with help from low immigration interest rates rather than foreign capital). If these policies continue, Montreal could see a healthier housing market in the long term – but the challenge will be ensuring enough new homes get built to meet demand without prices re-accelerating.

Neighborhood Breakdown: Prices Across Montreal

Montreal is often described as a city of neighborhoods, each with its own character and price tag. The 2025 market has accentuated differences across these areas, with some neighborhoods soaring to new price heights and others remaining comparatively affordable (or even seeing price declines in certain segments). Here’s a tour of Montreal’s real estate by region, highlighting how prices stack up:

Luxury Enclaves – Westmount & Outremont: At the top end, enclaves like Westmount (an independent city on the island) and Outremont (a high-end residential borough) remain Montreal’s priciest areas. These sectors are “reserved for a select handful of wealthy buyers” centris.ca. While exact average prices can fluctuate with a few high-end sales, it’s not uncommon to see median single-family home prices well above $1.5–$2 million in these districts. For example, adjacent Town of Mont-Royal (TMR) saw its average house price reach $2.02 million in early 2025, up 14.5% year-over-year centris.ca – indicative of the demand for affluent neighborhoods. In Westmount and Outremont, spacious century homes and proximity to top schools keep values high. These markets are insulated; even as interest rates rose, many buyers here transact in cash or have significant wealth. Thus, these luxury areas saw continued growth in 2025 and very low inventory – but they account for a tiny fraction of overall sales (Westmount had so few sales that official stats often omit its averages centris.ca).

Trendy Urban Boroughs – Plateau-Mont-Royal, Ville-Marie: The Plateau and Ville-Marie (Downtown) are known for their mix of historic walk-ups, condos, and vibrant street life. In 2025, their real estate performance was a bit mixed. Le Plateau-Mont-Royal, once the hip (now expensive) neighborhood, appears to be hitting a price ceiling. The average condo price in the Plateau was around $605,000 in Q1, basically flat (+0.3%) from a year prior centris.ca. This suggests buyers are balking at further price hikes in that area, or choosing more up-and-coming locales. Plateau’s iconic triplexes now often fetch $1M+, making cash flow tough for investors and entry tough for young families, which cools activity. Ville-Marie, which includes downtown and the Old Port, saw condo prices modestly up (~4% YoY, average ~$565,000) centris.ca. The downtown condo market still has plenty of supply (new towers completed and more on the way), and as noted earlier, investor-owned units are being listed for sale, which has tempered price growth. Still, downtown remains attractive for those who want an urban lifestyle; prices are lower than in Toronto’s core by a wide margin, so some inter-provincial buyers find value in Montreal’s downtown condos.

The Family-Friendly West – NDG, CSL, DDO: Montreal’s west end and West Island suburbs have seen solid appreciation as families seek space and yards. Côte-des-Neiges–Notre-Dame-de-Grâce (CDN-NDG), a large central borough, recorded an average single-family price of $1.24 million (+6.3% YoY) and condos ~$626K (+16.6% YoY!) centris.ca. NDG offers semi-detached homes and condos in reachable range (by Montreal standards) and seems to be surging, particularly in its condo segment – perhaps as downsizers and young professionals target it instead of pricier downtown/Plateau. Côte-Saint-Luc (a suburb adjacent to NDG) also has high average prices (~$1M houses, $536K condos) centris.ca, reflecting its desirability for middle-class families and retirees (it’s a predominantly anglophone area with strong services).

Further west, the West Island suburbs like Dollard-des-Ormeaux (DDO) and Pointe-Claire boomed. DDO’s average house price jumped to ~$883K (+13.7% YoY), with condos ~$512K (+16.8%) centris.ca. This is likely due to its suburban appeal and perhaps the REM line which now links DDO to downtown in 30 minutes, boosting its attractiveness. Beaconsfield and Kirkland, upper-middle-class West Island towns, are nearing the $1M mark for average houses (around $985K and $1.0M respectively) centris.ca. As remote work allows more flexibility, some buyers choose these suburban markets for larger homes, while still betting on improved transit (REM) for occasional commutes. The West Island overall has been a growth area, narrowing the gap historically seen between city and suburbs.

Affordable and Rising – East and North Ends: On the opposite end of the spectrum, Montreal’s most affordable neighborhoods lie in the east and north, and many of these saw notable activity in 2025. As highlighted by Centris, Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles (RDP-PAT) stands out. With an average single-family price of $571,658 in Q1 2025 centris.ca, it’s roughly 40% below the Island average. This attracted a surge of buyers – RDP-PAT accounted for 11% of all Centris home listing views, and sales volume jumped 22% centris.ca. Buyers, especially young families, are drawn by the prospect of a detached home in the $500Ks – something impossible in central Montreal. RDP-PAT’s slightly remote location (eastern tip of the island) is mitigated by decent transit (commuter trains, nearby metro terminus, planned extensions) and improved amenities. The borough’s popularity in 2025 suggests a real shift: many are willing to trade commute time for affordability.

Similarly, Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve (HOMA) remains a bastion of relative affordability adjacent to downtown. Interesting trends there: single-family home prices fell 7% vs last year to about $603,000 centris.ca, implying some price correction or a change in the mix of sales (perhaps fewer renovated townhouses sold). On the other hand, HOMA’s condo prices rose 7% to ~$426,500 centris.ca, still well below the island condo average. The area’s condo market is picking up with new projects, and it remains one of the cheapest inner-city areas with metro service. More inventory in HOMA gave buyers breathing room, easing pressure despite strong demand centris.ca. Many consider HOMA a neighborhood in transition – cafes and condo lofts amid old industrial buildings – and 2025 data suggests it’s still on the upswing but at attainable prices, making it attractive to first-time buyers priced out of other boroughs.

In Montreal’s north end, areas like Ahuntsic and Villeray mix affordability with proximity to the core. Ahuntsic-Cartierville saw a slight dip in house prices (–6.6%), averaging ~$846K, but condos up +8.4% (~$451K) centris.ca. This might reflect fewer high-end home sales in 2025, but generally Ahuntsic is a stable family area, and its condos (often near the waterfront or new mid-rises) are gaining value. Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension, a diverse central district, had an average condo around $510K (–1.3% YoY) centris.ca. Parc-Extension especially has seen an influx of investors and gentrification near the new University of Montreal science campus. The plateauing of condo prices here could be due to an abundance of small condo units coming to market (investors cashing out). But with its metro access and central location, this area remains one to watch.

South Shore & Laval: While not on the Island, many Montrealers consider moving off-island for affordability. Though our focus is Montreal proper, it’s worth noting places like Laval (to the north) and Longueuil/Brossard (South Shore) saw price trends similar to the island – moderate increases in 2025, with single-family homes in those suburbs generally ranging from the mid-$500Ks to $700Ks depending on the sector (still cheaper than Montreal Island’s ~$950K average for houses centris.ca). The South Shore in particular is benefiting from the REM – Brossard’s new rapid link to downtown has boosted its condo market. These peripheral areas provide a relief valve for buyers, which in turn keeps Island prices from overheating even more.

In summary, Montreal’s neighborhood price breakdown in 2025 shows a huge range: from entry-level condos under $400K in outlying areas to mansions topping $3–4 million in Westmount. The key changes this year were that affordable areas saw the fastest sales growth (as buyers flocked there), and some traditionally red-hot areas leveled off due to affordability limits. This “two-speed” market – high-end resilience and budget-sector frenzy – highlights Montreal’s ongoing challenge: demand is broad and citywide, but supply is constrained, especially in lower-priced segments. Neighborhoods that can add housing (e.g. redeveloping old industrial lands in the East) will likely see price appreciation as they become the new frontier for young buyers, whereas saturated pricey areas may see flatter growth if buyers simply can’t stretch further.

Economic and Demographic Factors Influencing Demand

Real estate does not exist in a vacuum; Montreal’s housing and commercial property markets in 2025 are being significantly shaped by broader economic and demographic currents. Several key factors are at play:

Population Flows and Housing Demand: Montreal’s population has been on a roller coaster. After years of modest growth, the city experienced a surge in population in 2022–2024, largely due to record international immigration into Canada. Quebec welcomed a high number of immigrants in 2024 (the province’s population grew by ~155,000 that year) and Montreal, as the economic hub, absorbed many of them coastreporter.net. Indeed, 2023–2024 saw Montreal leading provincial population growth at +4.2% (adding ~91,300 people) – exceptionally high, driven “entirely by immigration” statistique.quebec.ca. This influx, combined with returning students post-pandemic, drove up housing demand sharply, especially for rentals and starter homes.

However, there’s a twist: by mid-2025 policymakers began tapping the brakes on population growth due to the housing crunch. The federal government announced plans to moderate immigration levels (especially temporary residents like international students), and the Quebec government aims to reduce temporary foreign workers by ~9% over three years montreal.citynews.ca. The Quebec statistics agency even projects the province’s population could decline by 80,000 by 2030 if these trends hold montreal.citynews.ca, with Montreal’s own population potentially dipping ~5% – a sharp reversal from previous forecasts montreal.citynews.ca. The main reason cited is a planned “temporary migrant lowering” – fewer international students and workers allowed in montreal.citynews.ca – alongside low birth rates. If Montreal’s population indeed flatlines, that would cool housing demand growth in the medium term. However, even in the scenario of zero population growth, the number of households is still expected to rise (by ~0.8%) montreal.citynews.ca because of smaller household sizes and an aging population needing separate housing units. In practical terms, while there may be fewer new people, more seniors living alone and more young people not coupling up as early means housing demand doesn’t shrink one-for-one with population. This could keep pressure on housing, albeit less intensely.

Employment and Income Trends: Montreal’s economy in 2025 has been a mixed bag. After the strong post-COVID recovery, growth slowed in 2023–24, and by mid-2025 Canada entered a period of stagnant GDP with fears of mild recession. Quebec’s real GDP was on a “downward trend since April [2025]” apciq.ca and nationally, output even contracted slightly in Q2. This economic softening typically would dampen real estate demand – job uncertainty can make people postpone buying homes or new office expansions. Indeed, consumer confidence in Montreal has been cautious blog.remax.ca. Yet, the housing market defied some of this gravity through late 2024 and early 2025. One factor was interest rate expectations – people anticipated that after the rapid rate hikes of 2022, relief was coming. By Q4 2024, bond yields fell and 5-year fixed mortgage rates did dip, prompting a flurry of buying (Re/MAX noted an “especially strong” November/December 2024 as buyers jumped in once rates inched down) blog.remax.ca. This psychological element – buy before rates rise again / take advantage if rates just fell a bit – helped sustain demand even as GDP slowed.

Montreal’s job market also held up relatively well through 2025. The city’s unemployment rate has been around the national average. Importantly, Montreal’s economy is quite diversified: sectors like tech, gaming, visual effects, aerospace, logistics, and higher education provide a broad base. Tech saw layoffs globally in 2023, but Montreal continues to be a tech hub (especially in AI and gaming), which attracts young, often international talent – all needing housing. Even as some sectors (export manufacturing) got hit by a U.S. trade slowdown and tariffs (Canada and U.S. were in a mini trade spat in 2025) desjardins.com, other sectors like tourism rebounded strongly, benefiting Montreal’s hospitality and retail real estate. Income growth in Montreal has traditionally lagged Toronto, but wage gains accelerated in 2022–2023 due to labor shortages. By 2025, wage growth moderated, and inflation – though down from its 2022 peak – had eroded some purchasing power. Households were squeezed by higher costs for everything, including mortgage payments. This has led to phenomena like more multi-generational living or co-ownership (friends or siblings teaming up to buy a duplex), which is becoming more common among first-time buyers in their 30s blog.remax.ca.

Interest Rates and Credit Conditions: Perhaps the biggest economic factor is the interest rate environment. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate went from 0.25% in early 2022 to around 5% by 2023, dramatically increasing mortgage rates. Montrealers renewing mortgages in 2025 often faced doubled interest rates and sharply higher payments – a risk for housing stability. As noted, many banks responded by extending amortizations (some loans temporarily became 35-40 year amortizations at renewal just to keep payments manageable). In late 2024 and 2025, as inflation cooled, the Bank of Canada paused hikes and finally delivered a rate cut in September 2025 blog.remax.ca. This is a watershed moment: the first cut in years, signaling the tide is turning. While one cut only marginally eases variable-rate mortgages, it has a big effect on psychology and future expectations. By late 2025, buyers and investors believe that financing costs will gradually decline through 2026–27, potentially boosting their future buying power cmhc-schl.gc.ca cmhc-schl.gc.ca. This expectation fuels some current demand (to get in before prices might rise further when rates fall). Conversely, if rates had stayed high or gone higher, Montreal’s market might have cooled significantly. So, the interest rate outlook (finally improving) is a key tailwind now.

That said, affordability remains a challenge. Montreal may be cheaper than other big cities, but by its own historical standards it’s quite unaffordable: Price-to-income ratios are near all-time highs. A Montreal household earning the median ~$76,000 can only get a mortgage of around $260K at current rates, which, even with a sizable down payment, means they’re limited to properties ~$325K or below mortgagesandbox.com. There are very few livable properties at that price except small condos or far-flung locations. This means many first-time buyers must rely on the “Bank of Mom and Dad” for help or delay buying. Demographically, this has pushed the average first-time buyer age into the mid-30s blog.remax.ca. The presence of a large student and young renter population in Montreal also means demand for rentals and starter homes is always being refreshed, but those younger residents face high hurdles to ownership.

Urbanization and Lifestyle Shifts: Interestingly, after the pandemic-driven suburban flight, there are signs of a partial reversal: as some employers call people back to offices at least a few days a week, and as the initial wave of remote work relocations settles, Montreal’s urban core demand is stabilizing. Millennials, the largest cohort now in home-buying age, generally value urban amenities and shorter commutes. CMHC assumes that as remote work’s novelty wears off, more young buyers will “prioritize being closer to jobs, boosting sales in larger urban markets” cmhc-schl.gc.ca. This bodes well for Montreal, which can offer a vibrant city life at a discount to bigger global cities. We see this in the rental market: downtown Montreal rents climbed in 2023–25 as students and young professionals returned, making downtown condos for rent a hot commodity again. It’s a reminder that Montreal’s real estate is influenced by cultural and lifestyle factors – the city’s unique blend of European flair, festivals, universities, and walkable neighborhoods consistently draws people in, supporting housing demand beyond pure numbers.

Aging and Downsizing: On the other end, Quebec has an aging population. More seniors means more looking to downsize from suburban homes to condos or seniors’ residences (or to help their kids buy homes by passing on equity). This can increase supply in the single-family market (empty nesters selling) but also increases demand for condos and apartments. Senior housing is a growing segment of commercial real estate as well. The demographic shift is gradual, but over the next 5 years, it will be a growing factor in housing inventory and preferences.

Economic Risks: Finally, macro risks that could influence Montreal real estate include the possibility of a deeper recession (if inflation spikes again and rates stay high, for instance, causing unemployment to jump). So far, Montreal’s housing has “defied uncertainties weighing on the economic outlook” apciq.ca, but a serious recession would likely cool demand and perhaps cause a modest price correction, especially if job losses hit younger households. Another factor is interprovincial migration – Quebec in the past lost many residents to Ontario or elsewhere. Recently that outflow slowed, even reversed during early COVID, but if language laws (like Bill 96) or fewer job opportunities make Quebec less attractive, some younger people might leave, reducing housing demand. Currently, though, Montreal’s relative housing affordability could ironically attract people from Toronto or Vancouver (some anecdotal evidence exists of Canadians relocating to Montreal where their dollar goes further).

In sum, Montreal’s real estate demand in 2025 is being buoyed by the tail end of a population boom, a resilient job market, and hopes of easier financing ahead. But affordability constraints and policy decisions (like cutting immigration) are poised to moderate that demand over the coming years. The balance of these forces will determine whether Montreal’s housing market stays on its steady climb or evens out into a period of stability.

Forecast: The Next 3–5 Years in Montreal Real Estate

Looking ahead, Montreal’s real estate outlook for the next 3 to 5 years (2026–2030) appears cautiously optimistic, with expectations of moderate growth and greater stability rather than extreme swings. Here’s what experts and trends suggest for the city’s residential and commercial markets:

Home Price Trajectory: After the strong rebound of 2024–25, most forecasts see Montreal’s home prices rising at a slower, more sustainable pace going forward. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) projects that 2025 will likely see the fastest price growth of the next few years (as the market recovers from the 2022–23 slowdown and pent-up demand is released), but by 2026 and 2027 price growth should cool down cmhc-schl.gc.ca. In practical terms, this could mean Montreal’s average home price growth easing to, say, low single-digit percentages annually, more in line with income growth. By 2027, CMHC expects much of the pent-up demand to be met and housing to actually become slightly more affordable than it was in the 2022–24 period, thanks to rising incomes and somewhat lower mortgage rates cmhc-schl.gc.ca. So while prices aren’t forecast to drop significantly, the era of double-digit annual spikes likely won’t return in the near future.

Sales and Demand: Sales activity is anticipated to remain healthy. In fact, Quebec as a whole is expected to see existing home sales and prices accelerating faster than the Canadian average in 2025 desjardins.com, and staying robust into 2026. One reason is that Ontario and B.C.’s markets are more constrained by affordability, so their recovery will be slower, whereas Quebec (and Alberta) have more room to grow with their cheaper prices cmhc-schl.gc.ca. The first half of the forecast period (2025–2026) should see Montreal’s sales at historically high levels cmhc-schl.gc.ca, potentially even challenging the records of 2021. By 2027–2028, as interest rates normalize and if population growth truly slows, sales may plateau or revert to long-term averages. Demographically, the prime first-time buyer cohort (millennials) will largely have bought homes by the end of this decade, which could naturally dampen demand growth thereafter, unless a new wave of immigration or another demographic boost occurs.

Interest Rates and Financing Outlook: A critical assumption in forecasts is the path of interest rates. The general consensus is that the Bank of Canada will gently lower rates through 2025–2026 to support a cooling economy and get inflation in check cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Fixed mortgage rates have already priced in some of this (they fell slightly in anticipation), but variable rates should come down more notably. By 2026, mortgage rates might be a percentage point or more lower than 2024 levels, improving affordability somewhat. This will “unlock” some buyers who were sidelined cmhc-schl.gc.ca. However, any rate relief will be gradual and partial – no one expects a return to the 2% mortgage rates of 2021. Instead, rates may settle in a middle ground (perhaps 4–5% for a 5-year fixed) which, combined with income growth, helps borrowers a bit. So financing will become a bit easier, but likely not “cheap”. This scenario supports modest price growth but also imposes discipline; highly leveraged speculation will be less attractive when money isn’t dirt cheap.

Supply and Construction: A potential dampener on the market is the slowdown in housing construction that’s already beginning. CMHC’s outlook warns that housing starts will decline from 2025 through 2027 across Canada assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca cmhc-schl.gc.ca, and Montreal is part of that story. The primary reason is a projected drop in new condo apartment projects cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Developers are finding it harder to pre-sell units in a high-rate environment, and construction costs remain elevated, so fewer new condo towers will break ground. Rental apartment construction may hold up better (due to incentive programs and high rents), but overall Montreal might see fewer units being built annually than the past few years. While in the short term this construction slowdown is a response to softer investor demand, in the longer term it could worsen the housing shortage, which in turn props up prices. By 2027, if the population hasn’t shrunk dramatically, Montreal could be facing a renewed supply crunch because we didn’t build enough during these years to meet even modest growth. The city is trying to counter this with policies (streamlined permits, up-zoning certain areas, etc.), but those take time to yield results.

Rental Market: Montreal’s rental market is expected to remain tight but might get some relief. With more rental projects completing (like large multi-unit buildings) and the Airbnb ban pushing some units to long-term rental, the vacancy rate may inch up from its rock-bottom lows. Indeed, provincial data showed vacancy rates rising in 2024 (e.g. Montreal’s overall rental vacancy went from ~1.5% to ~3% in some estimates) desjardins.com, and although that’s still low, it’s movement in the right direction. Rents will likely keep rising but at a slower rate if vacancy increases. For investors, owning rentals in Montreal should remain attractive given solid tenant demand, but rent control (Quebec’s rent increase guidelines) means exorbitant rent hikes are not allowed on sitting tenants. The balance of rental supply vs. demand is a key factor to watch, as it can either drive more people to buy (if rents surge too high) or conversely if renting stays relatively affordable compared to owning, some may delay homeownership.

Commercial Outlook: The office sector likely faces a lengthy recovery. Over the next 3–5 years, expect office vacancy to remain elevated. A best-case scenario is that vacancy gradually declines from ~19% toward low teens by 2030, but that requires either significant economic expansion or many conversions of offices to other uses. Montreal’s local government is actively exploring incentives to convert obsolete office space to residential, and some conversions are underway. By turning downtown into a more mixed live-work neighborhood (as opposed to 9-5 offices), Montreal hopes to fill some empty towers. The success of this could redefine downtown real estate by 2030. Industrial and logistics should stay robust; even if vacancy rises a bit more with new supply, it will likely stay a landlord’s market with rent growth outpacing inflation. Retail is perhaps the brightest spot – assuming no major pandemic recurrence, brick-and-mortar retail in Montreal should continue to thrive on strong consumer spending and tourism. New mega-developments like Royalmount (a huge retail/entertainment complex that opened 2023–24) will draw regional shoppers and tourists, reinforcing Montreal’s status as a retail destination. Retail vacancies may tick up if consumer spending dips in a recession, but prime high street and mall locations in Montreal are expected to remain in demand, especially as the city’s GDP is projected to grow a bit faster than Canada’s average, supporting retail sales jll.com.

External Factors: Montreal’s outlook isn’t immune to global factors. If the U.S. (Canada’s main trading partner) enters a deeper recession in 2024–25, Quebec’s exports and job market would suffer, potentially cooling real estate. Geopolitical events (oil prices, war, etc.) could influence inflation and rates, altering the interest rate path. On the flip side, if Canada’s housing affordability crisis prompts a significant policy response – say massive federal funding for housing or big changes to zoning – that could boost supply and ease prices more than currently expected. Such broad policy shifts are hard to predict, but housing is certainly a top political issue heading into 2025 elections.

Expert Sentiment: The general sentiment among Canadian housing economists is that the “correction” phase is ending and a period of stability or moderate growth is ahead. As one Desjardins report phrased, they expect Quebec’s market to “hold strong” in the near term despite uncertainty desjardins.com. No major crash is on the horizon for Montreal absent a severe economic shock – the fundamentals (population, affordability relative to other cities, lack of oversupply) provide a floor. However, the era of runaway price escalation is also likely over; higher interest rates have permanently raised the bar for affordability, acting as a governor on prices. Montreal’s outlook is thus one of balanced optimism: price and rent increases continuing, but at a manageable pace, and opportunities for smart growth and development if the city adapts (repurposing offices, developing new neighborhoods, etc.).

In conclusion, Montreal’s real estate market through 2025 and beyond is navigating a new chapter – one defined by post-pandemic adjustments, policy interventions, and economic recalibration. The city is poised to remain a relatively stable and appealing real estate market. It may not have the speculative sizzle of Vancouver or Toronto, but for many investors and residents, that stability is a virtue. With its cultural vibrancy, improving infrastructure, and relative affordability, Montreal is set to attract people and capital, just at a more sustainable tempo. Barring surprises, the next five years should see Montreal real estate steadily growing in value and importance, cementing its place as a top market to watch in Canada.

Sources:

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