- Fed Cuts & Housing – The U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates 25bp (first cut of 2025), sending 30‑year mortgage rates down to ~6.1% cbsnews.com. Homebuying activity has perked up, but building data still lag: single‐family housing starts plunged 7% in August to 890K (SAAR), a 2½‑year low reuters.com. Santander economist Stephen Stanley warns builders are “plagued with excessive new home inventories” and must “bite the bullet” and slow construction reuters.com.
- Canada Builds – Ottawa announced a new Build Canada Homes agency and a C$1.5 billion top‐up to its Affordable Housing Fund canada.ca. Housing Minister Gregor Robertson hails it as “a turning point” – a one-stop shop and funding boost to speed up construction of thousands of affordable units canada.ca canada.ca.
- Europe Mixed Signals – In the UK, Rightmove reports asking prices down ~0.1% year‑on‑year in September (first annual fall since early 2024) amid tax‑change uncertainty reuters.com. By contrast, a Reuters poll sees German home prices rising ~3% in 2025 (first growth in three years) reuters.com, as the economy recovers and ECB rate cuts (cumulative 200bp) kick in. ING’s Carsten Brzeski notes, “The recovery in the housing market continues, despite stagnating affordability…” reuters.com. However, experts warn affordability will remain tight – GEWOS’s Sebastian Wunsch says “no substantial improvement in affordability is foreseeable” soon, given weak rental construction reuters.com.
- Asia-Pacific Trends – China’s housing slump is moderating: a Reuters poll now sees 2025 new‑home prices down ~3.8% (versus a 4.8% drop forecast in May) reuters.com. Yet sales and investment are still falling double-digits as developers default on debt and inventory piles up reuters.com. Fitch Ratings warns of “many structural challenges” ahead – demographics, low affordability and bloated unsold stock reuters.com. In Vietnam, Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính ordered massive new homebuilding, easier approvals and cheaper loans to cool soaring prices reuters.com reuters.com. In Australia, analysts expect home prices to rise ~5% in 2025 as the RBA’s rate cuts (now 3.6%) revive demand reuters.com – but Metropole’s Michael Yardney cautions that lower rates in an undersupplied market may actually push prices further out of reach for first‑timers reuters.com.
- Latin America – Brazil’s mid‑September inflation edged up 0.48% on higher housing and utility costs reuters.com. Annual inflation (5.32%) remains well above the 3% target, keeping the central bank at a 15% policy rate. (As one example of regional deals, Mexico’s luxury condo markets remain hot, but affordability and finance tensions persist.)
- Middle East & Africa – Governments are boosting housing. Abu Dhabi unveiled plans for 13 new residential communities (40,000+ homes) at a total AED 106 billion (US$28.8 b) zawya.com, plus land grants and subsidies to speed up approvals. Dubai, Sharjah and Ras Al-Khaimah also approved multi‑billion AED housing projects (thousands of new homes) this year zawya.com zawya.com. In contrast, Turkey moved to punish fraud in its citizenship‑by‑investment program, revoking the passports of hundreds of foreign buyers who gamed the system imidaily.com. In Africa, South Africa’s housing supply struggles continue amid high demand and tight financing, while Egypt’s top developers are pivoting to tourism: Egypt’s Emaar Misr signed a deal with Saudi/Emirati partners to build an $18.6 b “Marassi Red Sea” resort-city reuters.com (projected to generate $100–200M/year in tourism revenue).
North America – U.S. Housing Slump vs Policy Relief
U.S. residential markets remain sluggish despite cheaper borrowing. Even after the Fed’s surprise 25‑bp cut (Sept 17 reuters.com), the housing market shows deep weakness. August data showed single‑family starts plummeting 7% to a 890K annual pace reuters.com, dragged down by an 18‑month glut of unsold new homes. Santander economist Stephen Stanley commented, “Builders have been plagued with excessive new home inventories… It is past time that builders bite the bullet and cut back on the number of homes they are starting to get inventories under control.” reuters.com. Multifamily starts also fell (down 11%), leaving total housing starts down 8.5% in August reuters.com. Low mortgage rates (~6.1% for 30‑year fixed cbsnews.com) have revived some buyer interest, but industry analysts say job‑market uncertainty and existing home oversupply will keep a lid on activity reuters.com reuters.com.
On the commercial side, firms are cautiously optimistic. Real estate services giant CBRE (NB: Cushman & Wakefield and others report similar trends) raised its 2025 profit forecast in July, citing robust leasing demand reuters.com. CEO Bob Sulentic noted, “Despite uncertainty in the macro environment, occupier and investor clients largely proceeded with executing their plans.” reuters.com CBRE’s U.S. office leasing revenue jumped 14% in Q2 as some companies expanded footprints. In the retail/industrial sector, leasing remains steady (helped by consumer recovery), though rent growth is slowing.
Canada – Ottawa is attacking the housing shortage head‑on. On Sept 19, the government launched Build Canada Homes (a federal agency to co-finance mass‑market construction) and announced a C$1.5 billion top‑up to the Affordable Housing Fund canada.ca. Housing Minister Gregor Robertson called it “a turning point in how we deliver affordable housing in Canada”, emphasizing innovative methods and partnerships canada.ca. The funds (delivered by CMHC) will support thousands of new units, prioritizing shovel‑ready projects. Meanwhile, Canada’s overall housing market is cooling: key centers like Toronto and Vancouver have seen flat prices after years of rapid growth, and affordability pressures remain acute. (The Bank of Canada has paused its tightening cycle, awaiting more data.)
Europe – Price Slumps and Supply Gaps
Across Europe, housing markets show a patchwork of trends. The Eurozone is benefiting from lower borrowing costs. The ECB left rates unchanged on Sept 11 ecb.europa.eu (deposit 2.00%, refi 2.15%), citing inflation near target. Lower rates and bank support measures are slowly reviving demand. A Reuters poll of 14 analysts found German home prices will rise about 3.0% in 2025 (after a 2‑year slide) and 3.5% in 2026 reuters.com. Indeed, Q1 2025 saw German prices +3.8% year-on-year reuters.com, and building permits jumped 7.9% in June. But affordability is deteriorating. ING’s Carsten Brzeski notes “the recovery in the housing market continues, despite stagnating affordability…” reuters.com. GEWOS economist Sebastian Wunsch warns that the recent surge in prices will do little to help buyers – “no further substantial improvement in affordability is foreseeable for the remainder of 2025,” and with very few new rental permits, the market won’t fundamentally change soon reuters.com. Renters face similar pressures: average city rents are expected to climb 3–5% in the coming year despite new rent‑control proposals reuters.com.
In the UK, home price growth has stalled. Rightmove data showed asking prices in late August just 0.1% below a year earlier reuters.com – the first annual drop since early 2024. Short‑term fluctuations aside, surveys suggest little price growth into late 2025, as buyers face higher mortgage costs and uncertainty over property tax hikes. The Bank of England’s next move is uncertain after pausing earlier in 2025; many analysts expect rates to remain flat given sticky inflation.
Spain & Southern Europe – A hot spot for investors, especially in niche markets. For example, Spain is experiencing a student‑housing boom: a record €€1.2 b investment by CPP (Canada Pension Plan) in student residences (via Brookfield’s Livensa deal) caps a banner year reuters.com. International developer Greystar (and others like Hines) say the fundamentals are superb: “The fundamentals in Spain are arguably the best in Europe,” says Greystar’s Nigel Allsopp reuters.com. With student numbers up 77% over the past decade, the 117,000 purpose‑built beds cover only ~20% of demand reuters.com. Greystar touts Spain as “the most landlord-friendly” student market in Europe, and new premium dorms (with gyms, etc.) are commanding €1,000+/month rents reuters.com reuters.com. (The flip side: many local students now struggle to find affordable rooms.) Other Southern markets (e.g. Portugal, Italy) see modest price growth, but remain far more affordable than France or Germany.
Asia-Pacific – China’s Inventory Crisis & Cooling Policies
China’s real estate bust continues, but at a slightly slower pace. A Reuters survey (Aug 26–Sept 3) forecasts new‑home prices down 3.8% in 2025 (an improvement from a 4.8% decline projected in May) reuters.com. Prices should only return to modest growth (~2%) by 2027. Even so, the market is in deep freeze: sales are expected to fall ~7.5% this year reuters.com, and investment could plunge ~11% reuters.com, due to massive unsold inventories and developer defaults. Beijing has rolled out support (lower down‐payments, eased mortgage rates, government land buy‑back programs), but analysts say structural issues loom. Fitch Ratings warns of “structural challenges… including demographic shifts, low housing affordability and high unsold inventory in many parts of the country” reuters.com. Industry experts say no rebound is likely until at least late 2026, absent heavy state intervention (e.g. using fiscal funds to convert unsold units into social housing reuters.com).
Elsewhere in Asia: Japan’s housing demand is steady but modest (Tokyo prices were up ~8% in early 2025), while New Zealand’s market is cooling after earlier booms (RBNZ holds rates near 3.7%). In India, new data (if any) indicates housing sales may have softened after a pandemic‑era rally, especially if RBI pauses rate cuts. In Southeast Asia, markets vary: Indonesia’s luxury condos face oversupply, Singapore’s foreigner cooling measures weigh on prices, whereas growth cities like Bangkok see modest gains.
A bright spot: Australia/New Zealand. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut its cash rate from 4.35% to 3.6%, and markets expect one or two more cuts by mid‑2026. Analysts polled by Reuters now forecast Aussie home prices up about 5–6% over the next two years reuters.com. Head of economic forecasts Johnathan McMenamin at Barrenjoey expects “a continued lift in house prices… as a few more rate cuts… household buying capacity will continue to rise, putting upward pressure on the housing market.” reuters.com. However, Australia’s 8× income price levels mean affordability is stretched. Metropole’s Michael Yardney cautions that “lower rates are intended to improve affordability, but when they fuel demand in markets with chronic undersupply, the effect can actually push prices further out of reach” for homebuyers reuters.com. New Zealand’s RBNZ already moved to cut last month; Wellington house prices have stabilized but remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
Latin America – Inflation and Policy Pressures
In Latin America, housing markets reflect broader economic pressures. Brazil’s inflation reading (IPCA-15) crept up 0.48% in mid-September reuters.com, mainly due to a 3.31% monthly jump in housing costs reuters.com (electricity and rent). Annual inflation (~5.3%) is still far above the 3% goal, keeping the Selic rate at a 15% high (after 450bp of hikes in 2024). Recent data show Brazil’s real estate prices are rising faster in inflation-adjusted terms than a year ago, pressuring consumers. The central bank signaled a pause for now, but many economists see policy easing on the horizon in late 2025.
Mexico’s housing market remains fragmented: City-center condo prices have surged (5–10% YOY in places like CDMX), while affordability is crumbling for middle-class buyers. Banxico (Mexico’s central bank) has paused at 7.75%, and lower borrowing costs could spur demand if lenders ease mortgage conditions. In Argentina, property is largely seen as an inflation hedge, with official construction numbers down but unregistered deals (often in USD) remaining strong. Across the region, foreign investors are eyeing logistics, warehousing and tourism developments (e.g. new resort projects in the Caribbean), but data is mixed due to currency volatility and rate uncertainty.
Middle East & Africa – Mega Projects and Supply Gaps
Oil‑rich Gulf states continue massive building drives. In the UAE, authorities have launched unprecedented housing programs. Abu Dhabi’s 2025 housing plan includes AED 94 b for ~25,200 new homes plus AED 12 b for ~14,900 serviced plots zawya.com (total AED 106 b, ~$28.8 b) across 13 new communities (e.g. West Baniyas, Yas Canal projects). The government also raised subsidies (AED 250k off large mortgages) and extended loan terms to ease costs. In H1 2025 Dubai announced ~3,000 new homes (AED 5.4 b) and post-July approved 1,100 units (AED 2.0 b) including in affordable clusters like Wadi Al-Amardi zawya.com. Sharjah committed AED 335 m for ~431 emergency housing grants. These efforts, along with land grants, are designed to double housing starts over the coming years.
Meanwhile, some Middle East markets cool. Israel has seen prices plateau after the Gaza war, and authorities are easing new home taxes to stimulate construction. Turkey recently tightened real estate investment rules: it revoked citizenship for hundreds of foreign investors who had fraudulently obtained the $250K qualification imidaily.com, exposing criminal syndicates. This crackdown highlights risks in Turkey’s popular Golden Visa program; experts warn that “real estate-linked migration programs are especially vulnerable to abuse,” a regime reviewed by CIP consultant Taymour Polding imidaily.com.
North Africa is pursuing its own deals. In Egypt, tourism‑linked construction is booming. In early Sept, Egypt’s Emaar Misr (controlled by Dubai’s Emaar) announced a partnership with Saudi and Emirati firms to build Marassi Red Sea, a mega waterfront resort at the northern Red Sea coast reuters.com. The $18.6 b project (170 km²) could generate $100–200 m/year from hotel and leisure activities reuters.com. Other projects include Saudi‑led $35 b Mediterranean development announced in 2024. Still, Egypt’s urban housing shortage is severe: Cairo rents and prices are rising sharply, and IMF‑backed reforms (e.g. cutting fuel and water subsidies) are making land‑backed housing loans expensive.
Sub-Saharan Africa lacks much market data this week, but the underlying story continues: booming urban populations and limited new construction. For example, Lagos land prices climbed ~40% YTD (in local currency) as ~20 m people crowd Nigeria’s cities. Governments from South Africa to Kenya are launching affordable‑housing schemes (Kenya’s 2025 budget set aside ~$3 b for social housing). The region’s private real estate investors are exploring opportunity cities: a 2025 report highlights Nairobi, Lagos, Casablanca, and Accra as key growth markets due to demographics and urbanization. However, political risks and funding gaps mean activity is highly uneven.
Market Forecasts & Quotes
Across all regions, a common theme is that supply/demand imbalances and policy shifts will shape prices ahead. Many analysts expect the relief from falling interest rates to be gradual, not a boom. As Barrenjoey’s Jonathan McMenamin put it of Australia, “as you get a few more rate cuts, household buying capacity will continue to rise,” but he cautions this is on top of already-stretched prices reuters.com. Conversely, Santander’s Stanley (US) says the housing market may remain an economic headwind despite rate cuts – builders must trim starts to match demand reuters.com reuters.com.
In finance markets, futures suggest further rate cuts are priced in for late 2025 in the US, EU and China – which could gradually boost global real estate demand. However, central banks stress patience: the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections after the Sept FOMC showed only modest easing. Real estate economist’s mantra remains: “It’s all about affordability and credit,” as one US analyst noted (rates and incomes, not home values, are the bottleneck).
Key Takeaways: Global home prices are diverging – stabilizing or up modestly in some nations (Australia, Germany, parts of Middle East) but still sliding in overbuilt markets (US, China) reuters.com reuters.com. Governments are aggressively trying to boost supply: from the UAE’s $29b housing plan zawya.com to Canada’s new Build Homes agency canada.ca. Major investment deals continue apace: pension funds, developers and REITs are channeling capital into sectors like student housing (Spain) and logistics. As Greystar’s Nigel Allsopp observed, “[Spain] is a very hot sector” – a sign that niches with undersupply still offer opportunities reuters.com.
Sources: Latest data and reports from Reuters, government press releases (Canada.ca), industry surveys and expert interviews (cited above) give a broad picture of the Sept 28–29, 2025 real estate landscape. Each region’s snapshot above is drawn from contemporaneous news articles and official releases cbsnews.com canada.ca reuters.com reuters.com zawya.com reuters.com.
