- US rental listing battle: Five U.S. states sued Zillow and Redfin for antitrust violations on Oct 1, accusing them of colluding to limit apartment-rental competition reuters.com. Virginia AG Jason Miyares warned “Zillow paying Redfin to exit the market harms renters” by reducing choices reuters.com.
- Big US investment: Innovative Industrial Properties (a cannabis REIT) announced a $105 million investment in IQHQ, a life-science property platform businesswire.com businesswire.com. IIP’s chairman called this its first move “outside of the cannabis industry,” betting on the “attractive, long-term strength of the life science industry” businesswire.com.
- UK market tick up: In September the UK saw a modest rebound – house prices rose 0.5% month-over-month after a summer dip reuters.com. Nationwide’s chief economist noted that low unemployment and rising wages are supporting buyers, and “borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little further” reuters.com. Meanwhile UK hotel investments jumped 28% YOY in Q3 (£1.04 billion), driven by single-asset deals in London hotelowner.co.uk.
- Key Europe deals: Slate Asset Management agreed to buy a €100 million German “essential real estate” portfolio (anchored by major supermarket tenants) businesswire.com. In Hungary, Czech group DRFG acquired Budapest’s 17,600 sqm Bartók Ház office tower from CA Immo – its first entry into the Hungarian market property-forum.eu.
- China’s housing stall: Official surveys (China Index Academy) showed September home prices barely budged: new-home prices +0.09%, resale prices down -0.74% reuters.com. Analysts warn this sector is still in a slump – a recent Reuters poll sees prices flat until at least late 2026 or 2027 reuters.com.
- India’s luxury boom: New data show Q3 home sales across seven top Indian cities fell 9% to 97,080 units, but total sales value rose 14% (₹1.52 lakh crore) economictimes.indiatimes.com. The gain was driven by upscale demand – 38% of new supply was “luxury” (₹1.5cr+ homes) economictimes.indiatimes.com. Average prices jumped 9% YOY (24% in Delhi NCR, 10% in Bengaluru) economictimes.indiatimes.com as buyers chased high-end and premium properties.
- Middle East surge: Saudi Arabia is aggressively courting foreign investors. Ahead of Expo Real Munich (Oct 6–8), Invest Saudi will unveil billions in new projects, timed to a January 2026 law allowing non-Saudis to buy property in designated zones arabianbusiness.com. Deputy Minister Fahad Al Hashem said the reform “has removed traditional restrictions” and that events like Riyadh Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup are creating “unprecedented demand” for real estate arabianbusiness.com. In Dubai, Q3 figures were eye-popping: transactions jumped 60.8% YOY (52,853 deals, AED 132.8 billion) and prices soared 17.4% therealestatereports.com.
- Expert outlook: Industry experts generally foresee cautious growth. Nationwide’s Robert Gardner sees a supportive backdrop for buyers (strong earnings, easing rates) reuters.com. Savills’ hotel-market head David Kellet noted “sentiment has stabilised through Q3” with over £1 billion of deals closed, and expects single-asset transactions to remain strong into 2026 hotelowner.co.uk. CBRE even predicts a “pivotal shift” in 2025 as the U.S. office market stabilizes, allowing occupiers “increased confidence” to plan new leases cbre.com.
United States – Rental Wars & New Bets
U.S. headlines were dominated by legal and investment news. On Oct 1, five state attorneys general (VA, AZ, CT, NY, WA) filed an antitrust suit against Zillow and Redfin over a $100 million deal in early 2025 reuters.com. The complaint alleges Zillow paid Redfin to exit the apartment-rental ad market, limiting competition. Virginia AG Jason Miyares warned this pact “harms renters and property owners by taking away free market incentives” reuters.com. The suits (one by states, one by the FTC) argue the deal will push up rents and fees by reducing platform choice.
In corporate real estate news, Innovative Industrial Properties (IIP) made a big strategic move on Oct 1. The cannabis-REIT announced it closed a $105m investment in IQHQ, a leading life-science real estate company businesswire.com. This is IIP’s first deal outside cannabis, signaling a broadening of investment focus. As IIP Chairman Alan Gold said, the firm is deploying capital “in a highly accretive way” and will “continue to capitalize on the attractive, long-term strength of the life science industry” businesswire.com. This deal and IIP’s new $100m credit facility against the IQHQ stake highlight a trend of REITs diversifying into biotech labs and other specialized property types.
United Kingdom & Europe – Steady UK Prices, Hot Hotels, Notable Deals
In the UK residential market, September saw a slight recovery: Nationwide reported a 0.5% monthly house-price gain, following a 0.1% drop in August reuters.com. On a year-over-year basis prices were up 2.2%. Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner observed that fundamentals (very low unemployment, rising wages and household wealth) are solid reuters.com. He notes, “borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little further,” which could bring more buyers back once mortgage rates ease reuters.com.
On the commercial/hospitality side, UK investment activity picked up sharply. Savills reports Q3 hotel transactions of £1.04 billion – a 28% increase from a year ago hotelowner.co.uk. London dominated these deals (£697m, 42% of the total), reflecting renewed confidence in big-city tourism and hotel assets. Savills’ David Kellet said that after a cautious first half, Q3 saw more than £1bn in closed deals and a “marked increase” over 2024 hotelowner.co.uk. He emphasized that over 90% of these were single-asset purchases. Looking ahead, Kellet expects this strong appetite for individual hotel properties to continue, while predicting that larger portfolios will start trading again in 2026 hotelowner.co.uk.
Across Europe, investors remained active in core markets. Slate Asset Management (Netherlands) agreed on Oct 2 to acquire a six-property German “essential” portfolio for over €100 million businesswire.com. These large grocery-anchored assets (leased to retailers like Aldi, Lidl, Rewe) will boost Slate’s logistics/retail holdings in Germany. In Eastern Europe, Czech developer DRFG completed its first Hungarian deal: buying Budapest’s 17,600 sqm Bartók Ház office tower from Austrian CA Immo property-forum.eu. DRFG said the purchase fits its growth strategy in Central Europe, reflecting confidence in office leasing and redevelopment opportunities in Budapest.
Asia – China’s Slowdown and India’s Premium Market
In China, data on Oct 1 confirmed a sluggish property sector. A private survey showed September new-home prices edging up just 0.09%, down from +0.2% in August, while resale prices fell -0.74% year-over-year reuters.com. This weak performance comes despite multiple government stimulus measures (rate cuts, purchase incentives) and follows years of property downturn after the debt crisis of 2021. Analysts warn that a return to normalcy may be far off: a recent Reuters poll found experts expect prices to stabilize no earlier than the second half of 2026 or even 2027 reuters.com. Economic headwinds like high unemployment and ample unsold inventory continue to sap buyer confidence reuters.com.
India’s market showed a mixed picture. Economic Times analysis of Q3 2025 (July–Sept) revealed sales across seven major cities fell 9% YOY to 97,080 homes, but the total transaction value rose 14% to ₹1.52 lakh crore economictimes.indiatimes.com. In other words, fewer homes changed hands, but higher-end purchases drove total spend higher. Luxury and premium homes dominated: about 62% of new supply was in the top segments (38% “luxury” homes above ₹1.5cr, 24% premium ₹0.8–1.5cr) economictimes.indiatimes.com. Mid- and affordable segments had lower shares. Prices followed suit – the average across India’s top cities jumped 9% year-over-year (led by a 24% surge in Delhi NCR, 10% in Bengaluru) economictimes.indiatimes.com. This suggests strong demand and limited supply in major hubs is pushing up values, even as overall sales volumes dip. Industry analysts note that despite the slowdown in sales count, demand is still healthy in India’s key cities, buoyed by festive buying and new project launches economictimes.indiatimes.com economictimes.indiatimes.com.
Middle East – Mega-Projects and Market Openings
The Gulf region continues to blaze ahead with ambitious projects and reforms. In Saudi Arabia, Invest Saudi announced plans to unveil “billions of dollars” worth of new real estate opportunities at the Expo Real conference in Munich (Oct 6–8). This comes in anticipation of a January 2026 law that will for the first time allow foreign individuals and companies to own property in designated areas of the Kingdom arabianbusiness.com. Fahad Al Hashem, Deputy Assistant Minister at Saudi’s investment ministry, emphasized that the reform “has removed traditional restrictions” and opened the door to new investors arabianbusiness.com. He specifically noted that upcoming events like Riyadh Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup are driving “unprecedented demand” for housing, retail, and tourism projects arabianbusiness.com. In other words, Saudi Arabia is positioning its real estate market for a major influx of global capital under Vision 2030.
Dubai’s market is already showing boom signs. According to local reports, Q3 2025 saw 52,853 property transactions – a 60.8% jump versus the same quarter last year – totaling AED 132.8 billion therealestatereports.com. Average prices also climbed 17.4% to AED 1,913 per sq.ft therealestatereports.com. This surge reflects strong interest from both domestic and international buyers. Mega-developments and new visa reforms (like the UAE’s long-term visa for investors) are often credited with fueling demand. Other Gulf emirates also saw action: for example, Ajman reported that 69% of recent property valuation requests came from Golden Visa applicants after easing investment rules therealestatereports.com.
Expert Insights & Forecasts
Looking ahead, experts see pockets of strength amid caution. In the U.S., mortgage-watchers note that high interest rates continue to pressure home sales, suggesting a modest recovery in 2026 at best. Nationwide’s Robert Gardner highlighted one bright spot: with employment low and incomes rising, consumer balance sheets remain strong, which should shore up housing demand once financing eases reuters.com. Savills’ David Kellet, commenting on the hotel sector, said the UK market’s return to confidence in Q3 sets a positive tone – but much depends on how broader economic headwinds (inflation, interest rates) evolve hotelowner.co.uk.
Global advisors emphasize defensive themes. CBRE’s U.S. outlook predicts a “pivotal shift in 2025” for office real estate – vacancy rates should peak around 19% before beginning a gradual recovery cbre.com. They expect occupiers to return selectively to prime offices as the economy soft-lands cbre.com cbre.com. Meanwhile, analysts watching Asia stress that China’s market won’t fully rebound until consumer confidence improves, whereas India’s growth story remains intact due to long-term fundamentals. For instance, ANAROCK’s outlook expects more festivals- and policy-driven momentum in India’s housing market through year-end economictimes.indiatimes.com.
In summary, early October’s news underscores a split global picture: mature markets are largely consolidating after years of volatility, while opportunistic investors chase growth in high-demand sectors and emerging regions. As Saudi officials note, new policies and global events are creating a wealth of projects to fund arabianbusiness.com. In the West, structured deals (like IIP’s diversification and the Zillow/Redfin lawsuit) remind us that regulation and capital shifts will shape the landscape. For now, observers recommend watching interest-rate trends, policy changes, and mega-event calendars. These factors will determine whether the current real estate rally in places like Dubai and India can spread into broader, sustainable growth worldwide, or if cooling markets will dominate.
Sources: Global news and data from Reuters, BusinessWire, The Economic Times, Arabian Business, Savills, and industry reports reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com hotelowner.co.uk businesswire.com arabianbusiness.com therealestatereports.com economictimes.indiatimes.com. Each quoted statistic and expert comment is cited above.
