Calgary Real Estate 2025: Market Balancing Act & Surprising Trends Unveiled

Key Facts

• Market Shift in 2025: After several boom years, Calgary’s housing market is stabilizing. Sales have cooled to more normal levels and overall home prices are roughly flat to slightly down year-over-year creb.com creb.com, marking a shift from the double-digit gains seen in 2021–2022.
• Residential Prices by Segment: The benchmark price for a Calgary home sits around $590,000 as of mid-2025 creb.com. Detached and semi-detached houses have held their value or seen modest upticks (~0–2% annual gain) storeys.com, thanks to limited supply in popular areas. In contrast, condominium apartments and townhomes are experiencing slight price declines (around 1–2% down year-over-year) due to a surge in new high-density supply creb.com storeys.com.
• Record New Construction & Inventory: Calgary has been building at a torrid pace. Housing starts hit a record ~24,400 units in 2024 calgary.ca (mostly condos and rentals), and 2025 continues to see high construction activity. This boom in building has doubled the resale inventory from last year creb.com, easing the extreme seller’s market of previous years. Buyers now have more choice, and the market has tilted toward balanced conditions – even favoring buyers in some segments creb.com.
• Rental Market Cooling Off: After years of tight supply, Calgary’s rental sector is finally loosening. The vacancy rate jumped from an ultra-low ~1.4% in 2022 to about 4.8% by late 2024 mortgagesandbox.com as thousands of new purpose-built rentals hit the market. Average rents have leveled off and even dipped – as of mid-2025 the city’s average rent (~$1,914 across unit types) is down roughly 9% year-over-year calgary.citynews.ca. Landlords are offering incentives (like free rent months) and advertised rents for a 2-bedroom have pulled back a few percent from last year cmhc-schl.gc.ca cmhc-schl.gc.ca.
• Commercial Real Estate Mixed: Calgary still endures Canada’s highest office vacancy, a legacy of the energy downturn and remote work. Downtown office vacancy hovers around 30% cbre.ca, and overall city office vacancy is about 23–24% assets.cushmanwakefield.com with many older towers struggling to find tenants. However, the City’s aggressive office-to-residential conversion program is underway – 21 office buildings have been approved for conversion, creating 2,628 new homes and removing over 2.6 million sq. ft of empty office space from downtown cmhc-schl.gc.ca. In retail and mixed-use spaces, consumer demand is recovering and new projects (like community shopping centers and revitalized high streets) are moving forward cautiously as the economy improves.
• Industrial Market Strong: Calgary’s industrial real estate is a bright spot. Warehouse and logistics space remains in high demand thanks to e-commerce and distribution growth. Vacancy rates are low (around 4–5% in 2025) avisonyoung.ca after a wave of new construction slightly eased the prior shortage. Lease rates have firmed up, and roughly 1–1.5 million sq. ft. of additional industrial space is under development to accommodate logistics, manufacturing, and warehousing needs avisonyoung.ca.
• Key Growth Drivers: Several factors are shaping Calgary’s market. Population growth is number one – the Calgary metro added an astonishing ~100,000 new residents (+6%) in 2024 alone atb.com, fastest in the nation, thanks to record immigration and interprovincial migration. This flood of people (many drawn by Alberta’s job opportunities and affordable housing) has supercharged housing demand. The economy is holding up well: Alberta is projected to lead Canada in GDP growth for 2025 storeys.com, and Calgary has created tens of thousands of jobs (especially in tech, healthcare, and construction) while keeping unemployment around 7%. At the same time, interest rates – after rising sharply in 2022–2023 – remain elevated, which has tempered buyer affordability. (The Bank of Canada’s policy rate was in the 2.75–5% range through early 2025, though a recent cut to 2.5% in late 2025 has provided some relief reuters.com.) Major infrastructure projects are also boosting confidence: construction began in 2025 on the $5+ billion Green Line LRT (Phase 1 adding 16 km and 10 stations by ~2030) en.wikipedia.org, and the new $1.25 billion event centre/arena is underway for a 2027 opening calgary.citynews.ca – both expected to spur development in surrounding areas.
• Investment Trends: Calgary is increasingly on investors’ radar. Local real estate investors have been active in buying rental properties during the recent boom, attracted by strong rent yields (especially compared to Toronto/Vancouver). With the recent rent softening, some condo investors are reevaluating, and the surge in apartment supply is even leading some to list units for sale, which has tripled condo resale listings since mid-2024 mortgagesandbox.com. Out-of-province buyers (from Ontario and B.C.) continue to view Calgary as a bargain market with room for growth, and some institutional investors and REITs are acquiring assets (e.g. rental apartment portfolios, industrial parks) at prices that still offer solid cap rates. Notably, Canada’s foreign-buyer ban (extended through 2027) means direct foreign residential investment is limited canada.ca, but foreign capital is still finding its way into commercial deals and development projects. Overall, investor sentiment in 2025 is cautiously optimistic – many see Calgary as having passed through the overheated phase and now presenting a window of opportunity before the next upcycle.
• Neighborhood Hotspots: Around the city, certain areas are experiencing the most change. New suburban communities on the outskirts are booming – for example, Yorkville (SW), Glacier Ridge and Ambleton (NW), and Belvedere (E) – adding thousands of single-family homes for Calgary’s growing families bestcalgaryhomes.com. Established suburbs like Livingston, Seton, and Mahogany continue to expand with new phases and amenities. In the inner city, Marda Loop is buzzing with infill construction and a major mixed-use development (the Marc + Mada project) set to transform that trendy district avenuecalgary.com. The historic Currie Barracks area is being redeveloped into a modern mixed-use community, and the Beltline/East Village continue to add condos and shops catering to young professionals. Meanwhile, some long-neglected areas are on the upswing: for example, Greater Forest Lawn in the east is poised for revitalization with new public facilities and housing initiatives, making it attractive to investors looking for the “next big thing” as new residents pour into the city avenuecalgary.com.
• Outlook – Balanced Now, Moderate Growth Ahead: Calgary’s real estate market in the short term (2025–2026) is expected to remain balanced. Economists predict flat to modest price growth in 2025 – roughly +1% for detached houses and 0% to –2% for condos/townhomes, following the slight cooling this year storeys.com. The ample new housing supply and higher borrowing costs will likely keep a lid on rapid price escalation, even as population gains continue. By the late 2020s, most forecasts envision Calgary’s market climbing gradually upward. Population growth is projected to slow to ~2% annually (versus the heady 4–6% recently) as federal immigration targets are adjusted and interprovincial migration normalizes atb.com. This more moderate influx, combined with sustained homebuilding, should bring supply and demand into better alignment. Through 2030, Calgary’s housing prices are expected to post steady, modest increases rather than another boom – think on the order of a few percentage points per year, barring any major shocks. The big wildcard is the economy: if oil & gas markets or the tech sector surge, Calgary could see another demand spike; conversely, any global downturn or significantly higher interest rates could soften the market. Overall, the city’s strong fundamentals – diversifying industries, young growing population, and relative affordability – suggest a positive long-term trajectory for real estate, albeit without the extreme swings of the past decade. Buyers, sellers, and investors alike should prepare for a Calgary market characterized by stability and sustainable growth as we head toward 2030.

Residential Real Estate Market in 2025

Home Prices and Sales Trends

Calgary’s residential market in 2025 has transitioned from frenzy to stability. Sales activity has pulled back from record highs – the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) reports unit sales year-to-date are down into the 23,000 range for 2025, after topping 26,000 last year storeys.com storeys.com. This dip (on the order of a 10–15% decline in transactions) brings sales closer to long-term norms rather than indicating a crash. The cooldown is partly due to economic uncertainty and higher borrowing costs weighing on buyer confidence creb.com. Even so, today’s sales levels remain above the lows seen in the oil downturn of 2015–2019 creb.com – Calgary’s market is slowing, not stalling.

Meanwhile, home prices have plateaued in 2025. The overall benchmark price for Calgary (all property types) is roughly $585,000–$590,000 as of mid-year creb.com. This is actually a slight decrease (around 2% lower) compared to spring 2024 creb.com, marking the first year-over-year price drop in several years. The small decline is largely attributed to the condo and townhome segment (more on that below) and is not uniform across the city. In fact, detached single-family homes – Calgary’s most coveted segment – have held value or even notched minor gains in some areas. The CREB’s forecast update calls for detached house prices to end 2025 up “under 2%” from last year storeys.com, essentially flat. Limited supply in certain price ranges (especially mid-market family homes) is supporting detached values creb.com, even as the citywide average stabilizes. Similarly, semi-detached homes (duplexes) are faring well: the benchmark price for semis was around $697,300 in May 2025, up ~3% year-over-year creb.com. In short, Calgary’s low-density homes remain in demand and largely avoided any price correction in 2025 creb.com.

By contrast, higher-density properties are seeing a mild pricing pinch. Condominium apartments and townhouses (row homes) experienced rapid appreciation in 2022–2024 (some condo prices jumped 10–15%+ in 2024 alone), but that trend reversed this year. Abundant new supply – many condo projects completed or nearing completion – plus softening rental returns have applied downward pressure. As of mid-2025, apartment-style condos are showing an annual price drop of about 2% on the benchmark index creb.com. The typical Calgary apartment now has a benchmark value around $335,000–$340,000 (for reference, in May the apartment benchmark was $335,300) creb.com. Row townhomes have similarly seen prices inch down about 1–2% year-over-year creb.com, with a benchmark in the mid-$400Ks (May row benchmark was $453,600) creb.com. These declines are relatively slight, essentially trimming the peak off last year’s prices. Abundant choice in the new condo market (and competition from a booming rental sector for prospective buyers) has made condo/row prices more negotiable. It’s worth noting that even after dipping, condo values in Calgary remain higher than pre-pandemic levels – the market is coming off the boil, but not crashing. CREB expects apartment and row prices to finish 2025 down a modest 1–2% overall creb.com, and early data align with that forecast.

The geography of price changes within Calgary is varied. Generally, the outer suburban neighbourhoods (where many detached homes are) have stayed stronger, while the inner-city condo-heavy areas saw more of the flattening. For example, the City Centre districts and Beltline – flush with new condo towers – have more listings and softer condo prices, whereas suburban communities like Evanston, Silverado, or Mahogany (dominated by houses) still have relatively tight inventory and resilient prices. Even within property types, supply differences matter: in the detached category, lower-priced entry-level homes remain scarce and have continued to appreciate, whereas the luxury segment (high-end detached in the $1M+ range) has more supply and has cooled a bit. This “two-speed” market is creating opportunities for move-up buyers – those selling an entry home into strong demand and buying into a softer high-end segment can benefit from the price gap shift. Overall, Calgary’s price trends in 2025 point to a healthier balance: after three years of red-hot seller’s market conditions, pricing power is finally equalizing between buyers and sellers creb.com. Homes still sell, but buyers can take a bit more time and often negotiate under asking now, especially on condos or in over-supplied pockets.

Housing Supply and New Developments

A huge story in 2025 is housing supply finally catching up. Calgary went from a severe listings drought to a much healthier inventory in the span of a year. In mid-2024, buyers and REALTORS® were lamenting that there were “no listings” – inventory was near record lows. Fast forward to mid-2025, and active listings have roughly doubled year-over-year creb.com. The Calgary market now has thousands more homes available, thanks to a combination of factors: record new construction, more resale listings as the hot market cooled, and a flood of new rental units giving would-be sellers confidence to list their homes. CREB notes that after several years of under-supply, Calgary’s resale inventory in 2025 is finally “back in line with normal levels” creb.com. The months-of-supply metric – which fell under 2 months at the peak of the frenzy (indicative of a sellers’ market) – has now risen to around 2.5–3 months citywide creb.com, signaling balanced conditions. Buyers have more choice, and bidding wars are far less common than in 2021–22.

Fueling this supply boost is an ongoing construction boom. Calgary has been building housing at a pace never seen before in its history. In 2021, 2022, and again in 2023, housing starts surged to multi-decade highs, culminating in 24,400 housing starts in 2024 – an all-time record calgary.ca. Crucially, most of these new units are in higher-density formats: condominiums, rental apartments, and townhome complexes. The city responded to the population influx and low vacancy with a wave of condo towers and apartment projects, many of which are now completing. As a result, 2025 is seeing a heavy volume of project completions. New condo buildings have opened in areas like the Beltline, East Village, University District, and suburban hubs (e.g. Seton in the SE). Perhaps even more impactful is the surge in purpose-built rental buildings delivering (some funded by government and CMHC programs). The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation notes Calgary’s purpose-built rental stock expanded by ~10% in 2024 alone mortgagesandbox.com – a massive one-year jump – and that momentum has continued into 2025. With government incentives, developers have 1,000s of rental units underway, many scheduled to open by 2025–2026. This elevated supply is a key reason resale inventory has risen: some would-be buyers are finding rental options and not competing for resale homes, and some investors are listing condos because the rental market is no longer ultra-tight.

On the development front, Calgary in 2025 is bustling with construction cranes not just for housing but also mixed-use and infrastructure projects. A few notable developments and trends:

• Suburban Expansion: The city has approved and launched numerous new suburban communities to accommodate growth. In fact, a City committee greenlit dozens of new suburban neighbourhoods in recent years. As of 2025, at least 11 new community projects are in progress for 2025/26 bestcalgaryhomes.com newhomesalberta.ca. Examples include Ambleton (NW), Glacier Ridge (far north), Belvedere (east), Alpine Park (SW), and Homestead (NE) among others. These areas are in various stages – some already building and selling homes, others just breaking ground. Together, actively developing suburbs have added tens of thousands of housing units (27,700 units in 2021–2025 alone, capturing ~60% of the city’s new housing growth) calgary.ca. The trend is clear: Calgary continues to grow outward, offering new detached homes and townhomes in master-planned communities complete with parks, schools, and retail. Buyers priced out of inner-city neighborhoods, or newcomers seeking family-friendly housing, are flocking to these fringe areas.
• Infill and Urban Redevelopment: Simultaneously, Calgary is seeing significant redevelopment within the city. Inner-city infill construction (tearing down old houses to build duplexes, fourplexes, or row houses) remains very active in areas like Altadore/Marda Loop, Killarney, Capitol Hill, and others. The city’s planning policies are encouraging gentle density in established areas, and 2025’s more balanced market hasn’t slowed infills much – builders are betting on continued demand for centrally located homes. Additionally, large-scale redevelopment of former institutional/industrial sites is ongoing. For example, Currie Barracks, a former military base near downtown, is being transformed into a new urban village (with condos, townhomes, retail and offices); construction of homes and a retail “high street” there continues in 2025. In the East Village and Victoria Park area, the focus of the Rivers District plan, new condo towers and the BMO Centre expansion (a major convention center upgrade completed in 2024) have injected fresh life. The Beltline is also slated for a new event centre (arena) and surrounding entertainment district by 2027, which is already sparking nearby condo projects and land development. All told, Calgary’s established core is slowly but surely adding residents – a key goal of the City’s downtown revitalization efforts.
• Office Conversions to Housing: One highly innovative source of new housing is Calgary’s downtown office conversion program. With downtown office vacancy so high, the City (with provincial and federal support) has offered incentives to convert empty office buildings into residential use. As of early 2025, 21 office buildings have been approved for conversion, which will create 2,628 new residential units (mostly rental apartments) in the downtown core cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Several of these projects are already under construction or even complete. For instance, a former office tower on 7 Ave SW reopened in 2023 as “The Cornerstone” apartments, and more are following. In 2025, one high-profile conversion is the Barclay Centre (606 4 St SW) – a 55-year-old, 16-storey office building being reimagined into 166 rental apartments with modern amenities, set to open in 2027 cmhc-schl.gc.ca cmhc-schl.gc.ca. These conversions not only chip away at vacant office inventory but also add much-needed rental homes right where demand is growing (downtown). By 2030, the conversion program aims to remove millions of square feet of office space and add well over 5,000 new downtown housing units, dramatically reshaping Calgary’s core. This is a nationally watched experiment, and in 2025 it’s in full swing – four converted buildings are expected to open to residents within the year cmhc-schl.gc.ca.
• Infrastructure Projects: Calgary’s real estate development is closely tied to major infrastructure. In 2025, the long-awaited Green Line LRT finally kicked off main construction. This new C-Train line (the city’s largest infrastructure project ever) will initially run 16 km from Shepard (SE Calgary) to 7 Avenue SW (downtown), adding 10 stations in underserved SE neighborhoods en.wikipedia.org. Groundbreaking occurred in June 2025 en.wikipedia.org, and the first phase is slated to be operational by around 2030 en.wikipedia.org. The Green Line is already influencing development: along the planned route (which includes stations in communities like Inglewood, Ogden, and near the new Event Centre), developers are assembling land and proposing transit-oriented projects. The City is also investing in utility upgrades and land-use changes along the corridor. Another headline project is Calgary’s new Event Centre, a 19,000-seat arena dubbed “Scotia Place” under construction in the Rivers District. Foundation work began in early 2025 calgary.citynews.ca with a target opening in fall 2027 calgary.citynews.ca. This facility (future home of the NHL Flames and a year-round entertainment venue) is the linchpin of a broader Culture & Entertainment District plan – expect new hotels, condos, restaurants, and other attractions to spring up around it. Indeed, even during construction, nearby land values are rising in anticipation. Beyond these, other infrastructure like the Stoney Trail ring road (fully completed in 2024) and airport expansion plans continue to improve connectivity, which tends to unlock peripheral lands for development (e.g. industrial parks near the ring road, new communities just beyond the old city limits).

In summary, Calgary’s housing supply in 2025 is finally on the upswing. Years of planning and building are yielding tangible results: more homes available for buyers and renters alike. New developments – from far-flung suburbs to downtown high-rises – are creating a city that can better accommodate its growth. For buyers, this means more options and less frantic competition. For the market overall, it bodes well for improved affordability over the medium term, as supply catches up to demand. The key question will be whether construction can sustain its pace (given labour and cost challenges) and whether population growth continues at its recent clip. But as of 2025, Calgary is proactively adding housing, which marks a significant shift from the scarcity-driven price spikes of the early 2020s.

Rental Market and Vacancy Rates

Calgary’s rental market has flipped from scorching hot to comfortably warm in 2025, offering a bit of relief to tenants. The past few years saw rents in Calgary soar at some of the fastest rates in Canada – double-digit annual rent hikes – driven by an influx of newcomers and rock-bottom vacancy. By late 2022 and into 2023, the city’s rental vacancy rate sank near 1%, and finding an apartment was a fierce competition with bidding wars for leases not uncommon. However, 2024–2025 introduced a new chapter: surging rental supply and softening demand have finally eased the pressure.

The vacancy rate in Calgary’s purpose-built rentals climbed substantially. According to CMHC surveys, metro Calgary’s vacancy rate was just 1.4% in 2023, but by the end of 2024 it had jumped to 4.8% mortgagesandbox.com. This is one of the most dramatic one-year vacancy swings on record for Calgary. A ~5% vacancy is considered relatively healthy (a balanced rental market), so Calgary went from ultra-tight to essentially normal within 12 months. Industry sources in 2025 even suggest vacancy may push above 5% in some segments as more new buildings open emeraldmanagement.com. Indeed, private sector data showed Calgary’s rental availability continued rising into mid-2025, with advertised apartment vacancies taking longer to fill and landlords starting to compete for tenants cmhc-schl.gc.ca cmhc-schl.gc.ca.

This rise in vacancy is directly tied to new supply. As noted earlier, a record number of new apartment units have been completed or are nearing completion. Many of these are large multi-family projects aimed at renters (some condo projects also ended up as rentals). For example, in the downtown and Beltline alone, several hundred new rental units hit the market in the last year (at properties like The Residences at TELUS Sky, Avenue Tower II, etc.). In suburban areas, developers built new rental complexes in communities such as Seton, University District, and near transit nodes. These additions, combined with more private condos being rented out, have greatly increased the listing inventory for renters. Rental listings in Calgary were up around 130% year-over-year in early 2025, per CMHC analysis cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Faced with more competition, landlords have had to become more flexible on pricing and incentives.

Rent prices, as a result, have leveled off and even declined slightly in real terms. To quantify: Rentals.ca data (July 2025 report) showed Calgary’s average rent (across all property types) at $1,914, which is 9% lower than a year prior calgary.citynews.ca. This was one of the steepest rent decreases among major Canadian cities at that time calgary.citynews.ca. By property type, one-bedroom apartments in Calgary average roughly $1,500–$1,600 per month in mid-2025, down from a peak of around $1,650+ in 2024 apartments.com. Two-bedroom units, which had climbed well above $1,800, have fallen back closer to the mid-$1,700s on average. Even larger units (three-bedrooms) saw rent drops – Calgary’s three-bedroom rents in mid-2025 are ~15% lower than year-ago levels (now around $2,300+ on average) calgary.citynews.ca. These statistics underscore a rental market that is cooling. It’s important to note, though, that this cool-off follows a period of extreme growth – for instance, average Calgary rents are still up around 9% compared to three years ago (2019–2022 period) calgary.citynews.ca. So renters today are getting a breather, but not a full rollback to pre-boom prices.

Landlords have responded to the softer market in various ways. Many new high-end rental buildings are offering move-in incentives – e.g. “one month free rent,” free parking for a year, or gift cards – to lure tenants, which hadn’t been necessary when vacancy was near 1%. Some existing landlords are restraining rent increases for lease renewals, preferring to keep good tenants than risk a unit sitting vacant for a month or two. The CMHC mid-year update noted that in Calgary (and a few other cities) advertised rents in Q1 2025 were actually 3–4% lower than in Q1 2024 cmhc-schl.gc.ca cmhc-schl.gc.ca, indicating landlords are trimming asking rents to fill units. Notably, while asking rents for new leases have dipped, the rents paid by long-term tenants still tend to be rising (due to annual rent adjustments and catching up from previous caps) – but at a slower pace. CMHC observed that rent increases for occupied units in Calgary remain positive (around 7.9% year-over-year in early 2025) cmhc-schl.gc.ca, reflecting that many tenants still see increases on renewal, though less than before.

Another interesting trend is that with more supply, renters have newfound choice and bargaining power. Throughout 2025, anecdotes emerged of renters negotiating small discounts, or being able to be choosier about location/amenities since multiple units met their criteria. This is a stark change from 2022 when renters often took the first available unit at any price. It’s also driving some quality competition: landlords of older buildings are investing in renovations and upgrades to avoid losing tenants to shiny new projects. Calgary’s secondary rental market (individual condo landlords) also feels the competition – some condo investors, seeing rents flatten and lots of new luxury rentals as competition, are opting to sell their units. This partially explains the rise in condo listings for sale in 2025 mortgagesandbox.com.

In terms of affordability, Calgary’s rental market remains cheaper than in Toronto or Vancouver, but the gap narrowed during the 2021–2023 surge. The average rent in Calgary (~$1,900) is still below the Canadian average (~$2,100) calgary.citynews.ca, and far below Vancouver (~$2,800) or Toronto (~$2,400). With the recent declines, Calgary has improved its standing as an affordable big city for renters. However, rents are still significantly higher than they were 5+ years ago, and with higher interest rates, many would-be first-time homebuyers are continuing to rent, which sustains baseline demand. One side effect of the high housing costs nationally is roommate households – even in Calgary, CMHC notes more renters are doubling up to afford rent facebook.com, a trend common elsewhere.

Looking ahead, the rental outlook through 2025 is one of continued balance or even softness. More new rental completions are slated for later in 2025 and 2026, which could push vacancy further up. Some forecasts suggest Calgary’s vacancy rate could temporarily rise into the 5–7% range before the influx of population catches up youtube.com. Rents are likely to remain relatively flat; we may even see slight nominal declines in certain segments (for example, luxury one-bedrooms in downtown might rent for a bit less in 2026 than they did in 2024). This is good news for renters and for the city’s cost of living attractiveness. For investors and developers, a cooler rental market means underwriting new projects more carefully – indeed, by late 2025 some developers signaled they would pause new rental projects because falling rents and higher financing costs squeeze the viability mortgagesandbox.com mortgagesandbox.com. But with Calgary’s population still growing, most analysts expect the rental market will gradually absorb the new supply over the next few years. The current window is something of a “catch-up” period where supply growth outpaces demand growth, after which equilibrium should be reached. Notably, Calgary’s rental market remains fundamentally tighter than it was during the oil downturn (when vacancy hit double-digits around 2016). The city is not in an overbuilt glut, but rather moving from extreme tightness to healthy conditions.

In summary, 2025 marks a turning point for Calgary rentals: higher vacancies and stabilizing rents characterize the market. Renters can breathe a sigh of relief as options increase. Landlords face more competition and must be prudent in setting rents. This balanced rental environment is likely to persist into the near future – a welcome normalization after the feverish rent hikes of recent years.

Commercial Real Estate: Office, Retail & Mixed-Use

Office Market Conditions

Calgary’s office market has been navigating a long and painful adjustment, and 2025 is another year of gradual healing – but also continued challenges. The city experienced a notorious office glut after the 2014 oil price crash, which led to energy companies downsizing or shutting their doors. Even as the broader economy recovered, the rise of remote/hybrid work in the pandemic added further stress, leaving downtown Calgary with one of the highest office vacancy rates in North America.

As of 2025, Calgary unfortunately still holds the title of highest office vacancy in Canada. The downtown office vacancy rate sits around 30% cbre.ca, meaning roughly one in three office spaces in the core is empty. This is an increase from earlier in the decade (vacancy was ~25% a few years ago) due to additional move-outs and a trickle of new supply completing. In Q2 2025 alone, downtown vacancy ticked up about 0.5%, partly from a large energy company consolidating space and putting more footage on the market cbre.ca cbre.ca. Calgary’s downtown has roughly 42 million sq. ft. of office inventory, so a 30% vacancy translates to ~12–13 million sq. ft. vacant – a huge excess capacity. Suburban office nodes, while healthier than downtown, also face elevated vacancy in the 15–20% range. For instance, Calgary’s suburban office vacancy was ~17% in mid-2025 (with the south suburban markets faring a bit better than the north) collierscanada.com. Citywide (all classes, downtown + suburban combined), office vacancy is approximately 23–24% assets.cushmanwakefield.com. These figures underscore that Calgary has a multi-year challenge to refill or repurpose its vacant office space.

On a positive note, there are some signs of stabilization. Over the last year and a half, national data show Canadian office vacancies plateauing, and Calgary is no exception to this emerging plateau cbre.ca cbre.ca. Net absorption (the net change in leased space) in Calgary has been hovering near zero – a bit positive one quarter, a bit negative the next – indicating the free-fall has stopped. Indeed, CBRE reported that Calgary had a slight positive absorption of office space in a couple of quarters, and high-quality “trophy” buildings even saw vacancy improve as some tenants “flight to quality” cbre.ca. The top-tier downtown towers (like the Bow, Brookfield Place) have fared relatively well, keeping occupancy and even commanding decent rents, whereas older Class B/C buildings languish nearly empty. This bifurcation means newer, amenity-rich offices in prime locations are outperforming. In fact, Calgary’s “trophy” downtown segment has vacancy around 11% – a world apart from the 30% overall downtown rate cbre.ca cbre.ca. Many tenants are using this opportunity to upgrade their space (since rent differences between classes have compressed). The spread in vacancy between Class A vs Class B/C is roughly 14.7 percentage points cbre.ca, highlighting how older offices are disproportionately vacant.

Rental rates for office space have accordingly undergone adjustments. The average downtown net asking rent in Calgary in Q1 2025 was about $16.31 per sq. ft. per year assets.cushmanwakefield.com, which actually rose from the previous quarter’s $14.95 psf. That jump is somewhat misleading – it reflects some higher-end space coming on the market, rather than landlords broadly gaining pricing power. In general, landlords of lesser-quality buildings have slashed rents dramatically and offer huge inducements to attract tenants (e.g., long free rent periods, improvement allowances). It’s not uncommon to see effective rents in Class B buildings in the single digits per sq. ft. In contrast, the premium “trophy” buildings still see rents in the high $20s psf or more for the best space. The average suburban office rent is lower, and interestingly softened slightly in early 2025 (down a bit in the suburbs even as downtown’s average ticked up) assets.cushmanwakefield.com. Overall, office rents in Calgary remain far below pre-2014 peaks. For context, before the oil crash, downtown Class A rents were in the $30–40 psf range; now only the very best spaces crack $20, and many deals are done at a fraction of historical rates. This is great for businesses looking for affordable office space, but tough for building owners and investors.

The continued high vacancy has led to creative measures. As discussed, the City’s office-to-residential conversion program is a direct response to the glut. By providing grants (up to $75 per sq. ft.) to building owners, Calgary has incentivized the removal of office inventory via conversion. By 2025, three conversions have been completed and several more are under construction, which in total will eliminate about 2.68 million sq. ft. of office space downtown cmhc-schl.gc.ca. This has a dual benefit: reducing vacancy and bringing more people (residents) into the core, which supports local businesses. City officials tout that for every $1 of public money, the private sector has put in $4 to make these conversions happen cmhc-schl.gc.ca – a decent leverage. It’s a slow process, but over the long term, these efforts should meaningfully dent the vacancy. Additionally, the City is exploring office building demolitions for some irredeemably obsolete towers, potentially turning them into parks or redevelopment sites.

On the demand side, Calgary’s office market is gradually diversifying beyond oil and gas. Tech firms, while not on the scale of Toronto/Vancouver, have grown in Calgary – companies like Amazon Web Services, Infosys, Unity Technologies, and local startups have taken office space, partially filling the void left by shrinking energy companies. The provincial government has also decentralized some jobs to Calgary’s core, and sectors like financial services and healthcare administration have modest expansions. However, these gains are incremental relative to the tens of millions of sq. ft. vacated. A noteworthy driver in 2025 is the “return-to-office” push; many Calgary companies are increasing in-person work expectations, which has led some to lease slightly more space or at least retain what they have rather than sublet. Sublease availability, which spiked in 2020, has been declining – sublet space in Calgary is down ~9% year-over-year cbre.ca, meaning fewer companies are trying to offload excess space (a sign that the worst surplus might be behind us).

In summary, Calgary’s office sector in 2025 is bumping along the bottom. Vacancy ~30% downtown is an immense challenge cbre.ca, and it will likely take many years of economic growth (and further conversion efforts) to significantly reduce that. Lease rates are soft, especially in older buildings, and landlords continue to compete fiercely for tenants. That said, there’s cautious optimism that the bleeding has stopped. The narrative is shifting from “how bad will it get?” to “how can we repurpose and recover?”. For Calgary’s downtown to thrive, filling these offices (or finding new uses for them) remains a top priority. The good news: no new office towers are being built (construction of offices is at a 20-year low cbre.ca), so the supply side isn’t getting worse. The focus now is on absorbing or eliminating the existing vacancy. If Alberta’s economy stays strong and sectors like tech and professional services continue growing, downtown Calgary may slowly chip away at the excess space. In the meantime, the downtown office market is a tenant’s paradise – ample choice and bargain rents – and a landlord’s headache. It’s a tale of two markets: shiny towers doing okay, older towers fighting for survival. Calgary will be closely watched in commercial real estate circles as it reinvents its downtown for a post-oil, hybrid-work era.

Retail and Mixed-Use Developments

Calgary’s retail real estate in 2025 is generally on more solid footing than the office sector, as it’s supported by the city’s population growth and recovering consumer spending. The retail market encompasses everything from suburban shopping centers and big-box power centres to urban streetfront shops and new mixed-use developments. Overall, Calgary’s retail vacancy is moderate and retail rents have been relatively stable, though performance varies by location and format.

In the suburbs, retail follows rooftops – and Calgary has plenty of new rooftops. As new communities pop up on the edges, retail developers are delivering the requisite grocery-anchored shopping plazas and services. For instance, in burgeoning areas like Livingston/Carrington (north) and Seton/Mahogany (south), new retail complexes have opened or are under construction to serve those residents (featuring supermarkets, drugstores, restaurants, etc.). These tend to lease up well, since new communities often have pent-up demand for local amenities. Power centres (big-box clusters) in established areas are generally healthy too; Calgary’s strong population growth has supported sales at major retailers (Costco, Walmart, home improvement stores, etc.), and vacancy in these centres is low. Some older power centres have even seen redevelopment, adding new pads or mixed uses. A notable trend is the incorporation of mixed-use elements – for example, the massive Taza development on Tsuut’ina Nation land (SW Calgary, near the ring road) is bringing retail, entertainment, offices, and potentially residential in a new hub, showing the blurring lines between pure retail and mixed-use destinations.

Calgary’s shopping malls had a tough go during the pandemic, but the top malls are bouncing back. CF Chinook Centre and CF Market Mall, the city’s largest malls, report improved foot traffic and sales in 2025, thanks in part to new store openings and renovations. Chinook Centre is preparing for a major expansion (including possibly adding an open-air retail street and residential towers on site in the coming years), and in 2025 it continues to attract new international brands. CrossIron Mills, the outlet mall just north of city limits, also remains a regional draw. Secondary malls (like Sunridge or Southcentre) are stable, though they face competition from e-commerce and need to keep reinventing with attractions like dining, fitness, or even healthcare uses taking retail slots. Calgary’s retail vacancy rate (for shopping centres/malls) is estimated in the low-to-mid single digits (around 3–6%, varying by submarket). The city’s high population growth has kept retail demand robust – more people means more shoppers.

In the urban core, retail is a mixed story. Downtown Calgary’s office-driven retail (the +15 food courts, ground-floor shops in office towers) has struggled due to remote work and fewer office workers. Some +15 food court stalls and convenience retail that catered to daily commuters remain vacant or on reduced hours, as downtown office worker footfall is still below 2019 levels. However, as more residents move downtown (with new condos and office conversions), a new customer base is emerging. We’re seeing an uptick in downtown amenities like grocery stores (e.g. two major grocery chains opened stores in the Beltline in recent years) and services for residents. The Beltline and East Village areas have become dining and entertainment hotspots, helping fill retail bays there. For example, First Street SW in Beltline and 17th Avenue continue to see new cafes, bars, and boutiques open, riding the wave of young professionals living nearby. Retail vacancy in the downtown core retail (at street level) is still elevated (perhaps ~10%+), but improving as some spaces convert to new concepts (like fitness studios, medical clinics, or even pop-up galleries) and as residential density makes some formerly quiet blocks viable for retail.

A big development on the horizon for urban retail is the aforementioned Culture + Entertainment District around 17th Ave and Stampede Park. With the BMO Centre expansion (the convention centre that finished in 2024) and the Event Centre construction, plans include year-round retail, restaurants, and public plazas to create a vibrant district. Already, Platform Innovation Centre (a tech hub) opened in East Village with public spaces, and the Calgary Stampede organization is working on a retail street as part of its lands redevelopment. By 2027 or so, this zone could become Calgary’s version of a sports/entertainment district, with bars, shops, and hotels – injecting new life into downtown retail.

Another interesting retail project is the Greenwich development in NW Calgary (near Canada Olympic Park). It’s a 59-acre planned community aiming for a “New York-inspired” vibe with brownstone-style townhomes and a mix of commercial space avenuecalgary.com. Notably, it opened the Calgary Farmers’ Market West as a major anchor avenuecalgary.com – an indoor market hall drawing visitors for local food and goods. This has put Greenwich on the map and shows how experiential retail (like farmer’s markets, food halls) is part of new community design. Similarly, new communities like University District incorporate high-street retail integrated with residential, which has been very successful (with grocery, cinema, restaurants near campus and new condos).

One cannot talk about retail without mentioning e-commerce: It continues to grow, but Calgary retailers have adapted by focusing on in-person experiences and omnichannel. Industrial fulfillment centers on the city’s edges feed the online demand (as covered in the industrial section), but brick-and-mortar in Calgary is far from dead. In fact, a unique aspect of Calgary is its relatively young, affluent population with a penchant for dining out and shopping when able – the city consistently ranks high in restaurant spending per capita. The energy of the economy in 2022–2025 (with less severe lockdowns than some places and a quick rebound) meant many restaurants and stores thrived. That said, inflation and high interest rates have made consumers a bit cautious in 2025, leading to slight moderation in retail sales growth.

Mixed-use development is a key theme: blending residential, office, and retail. Calgary’s new zoning in areas like Brentwood, Anderson, and other transit-oriented sites encourages towers with podium retail. One example under construction is at Brentwood Village Mall – an old mall site being redeveloped with high-rise residences and retail at grade. The same is true at Westbrook and Shaganappi areas around new train stations. By combining uses, developers aim to ensure a built-in customer base for retail and create 24/7 vibrancy. The City’s refreshed Municipal Development Plan emphasizes these complete communities.

In summary, Calgary’s retail sector in 2025 is cautiously healthy. Suburban retail is expanding with the city’s growth, top malls are innovating, and street retail in populated areas is finding its footing. Challenges remain for downtown office-dependent retail and older centres that need updates. But unlike the office market, retail has fundamental support from Calgary’s demographics and spending patterns. The vacancy rates are manageable, and rental rates for prime retail have even seen slight upticks in high-demand nodes. Calgary’s retail market is ultimately riding the coattails of its population boom – more people equals more shoppers – and that is a positive trajectory so long as the city continues to draw newcomers.

Industrial Real Estate Trends

While the office market struggles and retail adapts, industrial real estate in Calgary has been a star performer in recent years. The industrial sector (warehouses, distribution centers, manufacturing space, logistics yards) in Calgary and the surrounding region has seen surging demand thanks to a combination of e-commerce growth, Alberta’s advantageous location for distribution, and a relatively diversified industrial base (including logistics, food processing, building materials, etc.). 2025 continues to see strong fundamentals in industrial, though an influx of new supply is starting to slightly loosen what had been an extremely tight market.

To put it in context: Calgary’s industrial vacancy hit a 16-year low of just 2.6% in mid-2023 assets.cushmanwakefield.com – effectively, almost full occupancy – as companies snapped up any available space. This was spurred by major commitments from e-commerce and retail distribution firms, like Amazon (which opened multiple fulfillment centers in the Calgary area), Walmart, Canadian Tire, and others building big logistics facilities to serve Western Canada. Additionally, Calgary’s position as a rail and trucking hub (halfway between Vancouver and Winnipeg, and a gateway to the U.S. border via Highway I-15) makes it a strategic location for warehouses. Throughout 2021–2023, absorption (space leased) far outpaced new construction, driving vacancies down and rents up.

Seeing the tight market, developers responded with a wave of new construction. Over the last 18 months, numerous industrial projects completed across all segments – large format distribution centers, mid-sized multi-tenant industrial parks, and even some strata industrial condos. According to Cushman & Wakefield, in the 18 months after mid-2023, Calgary saw a “wave of completions across all market segments” that began to add much-needed space assets.cushmanwakefield.com. By early 2025, this construction surge led to a modest rise in vacancy from the rock-bottom levels. Overall industrial vacancy crept up into the 4–5% range by 2025 avisonyoung.ca. Colliers reported Calgary’s industrial vacancy at 4.14% in Q2 2025, down slightly from the previous quarter thanks to positive absorption of ~560,000 sq. ft. collierscanada.com. Avison Young’s snapshot for Q2 2025 showed vacancy about 5.1% with 6.2% availability (which includes space on the market but not yet vacant), and around 1.2 million sq. ft. under development still avisonyoung.ca. So the market remains on the tighter side of balanced – certainly not overbuilt, but no longer acutely undersupplied. A 4–5% vacancy means tenants have a few more options and developers aren’t leasing out buildings before they’re even finished (which was happening during the tightest period).

Industrial lease rates have increased over the past few years given the low vacancy. In Calgary, net rents for new, quality warehouse space have pushed into the $10–11 per sq. ft. range, which is notable (historically, $7–8 was the norm). Older or less optimal spaces lease for less, but overall rent growth has been strong. There’s been some pushback by tenants in 2025 with more space available – the rapid rent increases are leveling off. But landlords of modern high-clear buildings are still confident due to limited competition in that segment. Calgary’s industrial land and building costs are also rising, which puts upward pressure on rents for new developments.

From a development standpoint, construction is moderating slightly after the recent boom. As noted, ~1.2 million sq. ft. is under construction as of mid-2025 avisonyoung.ca. This is down from the height of activity in 2022 when several million square feet were simultaneously being built. Developers are becoming a bit cautious (higher financing costs and a slightly softer market outlook), but they’re far from pulling out – industrial is still seen as a good bet. Some projects in the pipeline include additional phases at High Plains Industrial Park (east of the city in Balzac), new buildings in Dufferin North industrial area, and some speculative builds in southeast Calgary’s industrial corridors.

Key drivers of industrial demand in Calgary:

• E-commerce and Distribution: Companies continue to optimize supply chains. Calgary is a distribution hub for Western Canada (catching goods from the port of Vancouver, serving Alberta, Saskatchewan, etc.). Amazon has multiple facilities here; in 2025 they are fully utilizing their major Balzac fulfillment center and a sorting center in the city. Other retailers and 3PL (third-party logistics) providers have set up to support faster delivery to customers in the Prairies. This trend ensures large format warehouses (100k+ sq. ft.) stay in demand. In fact, the stock of warehouses over 100,000 sq. ft. grew 20% in four years lee-associates.com, and by 2025 some of those big new boxes had vacancies (that submarket’s vacancy hit ~9% as a few huge spaces came online) lee-associates.com. But those are expected to lease over time as more firms consolidate operations into Calgary.
• Manufacturing and Processing: Calgary isn’t heavily industrial like an auto-manufacturing city, but it does have manufacturing in food and beverage (e.g., brewing, meat processing), building products, electronics, etc. Some of these users have expanded, especially food processors responding to population growth and agricultural outputs in Alberta. Additionally, high commodity prices in recent years spurred demand for storage of materials and equipment for oil & gas and agriculture.
• Logistics Infrastructure: The completion of Calgary’s Ring Road (Stoney Trail) means excellent truck access around the city. Industrial areas near the ring road interchanges (e.g., SE Shepard industrial, Foothills industrial, Balzac/Airdrie) are thriving due to easy highway connectivity. Calgary’s airport (YYC) is also a cargo hub, and warehouses around the airport have virtually zero vacancy.

Given these factors, the outlook for industrial remains positive. Most experts foresee Calgary’s industrial vacancy staying in the mid-single-digits in the near term – enough space to allow some tenant movement, but tight enough to keep rents firm. Any significant new demand (say, another major distribution center requirement) could rapidly tighten the market again. Calgary also benefits from being more affordable than Vancouver or Toronto for industrial occupiers, so some companies prefer to center operations here (if it fits their network). There’s also interest in investing in Calgary industrial properties: cap rates have compressed (reflecting high values), and national investors/REITs have been buying up Calgary warehouses as stable income assets.

In summary, Calgary’s industrial real estate in 2025 is robust and expanding. Vacancy of ~4–5% is a far cry from the 0–2% ultra-tight conditions earlier, but still healthy avisonyoung.ca. New supply is finally giving tenants more choice, yet demand remains strong enough to keep most new buildings filling up (Q2 2025 still saw positive absorption (~125,000 sq. ft.) overall avisonyoung.ca). Industrial landlords are in a much happier place than office landlords in Calgary, as their spaces are needed and utilization is high. For Calgary’s economy, a vibrant industrial sector means jobs in logistics and light manufacturing, and it solidifies the city’s position as the distribution heart of the West. As we head toward 2030, industrial might actually face a new challenge: land for development. With so much built in the last few years, prime industrial land is getting scarcer, and prices for zoned land have gone up sharply. But for now, in 2025, the industrial market’s trajectory is steady growth, aligning with Calgary’s expanding role in the supply chains of Canada.

Major Factors Influencing the Market in 2025

Several macro-level factors are heavily influencing Calgary’s real estate landscape in 2025. These range from economic trends and policy changes to demographic shifts. Understanding these drivers is key to interpreting the market’s performance and its future trajectory:

• Interest Rates & Mortgage Costs: Perhaps the most immediate factor affecting buyer behavior in 2025 is the high interest rate environment. In response to nationwide inflation, the Bank of Canada executed rapid rate hikes in 2022–2023, which pushed the benchmark overnight rate from near 0% to around 4.5–5% by early 2023. This translated into 5-year mortgage rates in the 5–6% range, roughly doubling borrowing costs for homebuyers compared to the ultra-low rates of 2020–21. These higher rates significantly impact affordability – the same house now comes with a much larger monthly mortgage payment, reducing how much buyers can qualify for. As a result, Calgary’s once red-hot demand cooled in 2023/24, and 2025 continues to see that dampening effect. Would-be buyers are either pausing their purchase, lowering their budget, or turning to rentals. CREB noted that economic uncertainty (including rate uncertainty) weighed on housing sales in early 2025 as buyers grew cautious creb.com. However, there’s a silver lining: by mid-to-late 2025, the Bank of Canada, facing a weakening economy, started cutting rates slightly. In September 2025 the BoC cut its policy rate to 2.50% (the first cut in six months) reuters.com, signaling a potential easing cycle. This was in response to lower inflation pressure and economic risks. For Calgary’s market, any downward movement in mortgage rates is a boon – it improves affordability and can bring some buyers back to the table. The mere expectation of rate relief in late 2025/2026 has improved sentiment. Still, compared to the last decade, borrowing costs are elevated, and that’s a key reason Calgary’s price growth has flattened in 2025. The stress test (which forces borrowers to qualify at ~2% above the contract rate) remains a hurdle as well, especially for first-time buyers. In summary, interest rates in 2025 are a cooling factor, and the market’s balance is partly engineered by these higher financing costs. Should rates continue to ease into 2026, it could re-energize demand.
• Population Growth & Migration: Calgary is in the midst of a population boom, making demographics a huge tailwind for housing. As noted earlier, the city’s CMA grew ~6% in the year to mid-2024 – adding around 100k residents atb.com – and continued strong growth is expected into 2025 (albeit likely not quite as high). This growth comes from two main sources: international immigration and interprovincial migration. Internationally, Canada has had record immigration targets (roughly 465,000 in 2023, 485,000 in 2024, and 500,000 in 2025 nation-wide). Alberta has been attracting a sizable share of these newcomers, thanks to job opportunities and lower living costs than Ontario or BC. Many new immigrants are choosing Calgary as their landing spot or moving there after initially arriving elsewhere. In 2024, nearly two-thirds of Calgary’s population jump was from international migration (including a significant number of non-permanent residents like foreign students and temporary workers) atb.com. Domestically, Calgary is drawing people from other provinces – especially younger workers and families from Ontario, BC, and elsewhere who are seeking affordable housing and good jobs. In 2024, Calgary and Edmonton together saw a net gain of ~35,000 interprovincial migrants, accounting for the bulk of Alberta’s gains atb.com. This human influx has boosted housing demand across the spectrum: newcomers often rent first (tightening that market, as we saw), then many move into ownership, not to mention overall consumption that drives commercial real estate needs. A key point is that demographics have been a major positive force keeping Calgary’s housing market resilient. Even when interest rates were biting, the sheer number of people needing homes provided underlying support. Looking ahead, there is a potential shift: the federal government in late 2024 hinted at moderating immigration targets in response to housing supply concerns mortgagesandbox.com mortgagesandbox.com. In fact, RBC Economics warned that if the government follows through on reducing new arrivals, it could “wipe out previously expected population growth” and turn demographics from a housing tailwind to a headwind mortgagesandbox.com. ATB Financial likewise projects Alberta’s population growth to slow from 4.4% in 2024 to about 1.9% in 2025 due to lower immigration targets and fewer interprovincial inflows atb.com. For Calgary, that means while growth will continue, it might revert to a more normal pace rather than the breakneck 2022–24 period. Fewer newcomers would mean somewhat less housing demand pressure than recent years. However, even 1.9% annual growth is historically strong, and Calgary’s affordability advantage suggests it will still attract people if other provinces remain pricier. In short, immigration/migration policies are a swing factor: if Canada/Alberta keep the doors open, Calgary’s housing will have strong demand; if policies tighten, the market may rely more on local household formation.
• Economic Health & Employment: Calgary’s real estate fortunes have always been tied to the economy, particularly the oil and gas sector. In 2025, the economic backdrop is cautiously positive. Alberta is forecast to lead Canada in GDP growth (~1.9% in 2025 as per ATB, versus near-flat growth in some other regions) mpamag.com. High oil prices in 2022 delivered provincial budget surpluses and reinvigorated some investment, though energy prices have since moderated. Diversification efforts mean Calgary is not only about oil: the city has burgeoning technology, logistics, agribusiness, and financial services sectors contributing to stability. Employment in Calgary has been growing – in fact, through early 2025, the Calgary region added 26,700 jobs in the first two months of the year assets.cushmanwakefield.com, with sectors like Health Care & Social Assistance leading the way (adding ~30,500 jobs year-over-year) assets.cushmanwakefield.com, followed by retail and construction. The unemployment rate in Calgary sits around 7.2–7.3% as of Q1 2025 assets.cushmanwakefield.com, down from the pandemic highs but still a bit above the national average of ~6.7% assets.cushmanwakefield.com. A 7% unemployment rate indicates some slack in the labor market, which perhaps explains why wage growth is moderate and not fueling runaway inflation locally. It’s also worth noting that labour shortages have been an issue in construction and trades during the boom – ironically, the very high immigration that’s now slowing was instrumental in filling many job vacancies. Key to Calgary’s outlook is the energy sector’s direction. The CREB has pointed out that “clarity surrounding energy and environmental policy will be an important factor influencing the housing market beyond 2025” creb.com. This refers to how federal climate policy, pipeline approvals (or lack thereof), and global demand for oil/gas can impact Calgary’s primary industry. If companies feel confident, they hire and expand (good for real estate); if not, we could see another contraction. As of 2025, energy companies are generally stable and profitable, but many are channeling profits to debt reduction or dividends rather than aggressive growth, meaning no big office expansions. On the flip side, green energy and tech are rising: Calgary has positioned itself as a hub for clean tech, logistics tech, and has even attracted some film and creative industries. A more diversified economy makes the real estate market less volatile than in the past. Another economic factor: trade tensions and tariffs. Interestingly, 2025 saw the re-emergence of protectionist trade policies (with a change in U.S. administration). CREB cited “heightened uncertainty” from U.S. tariffs as a reason they downgraded the 2025 housing forecast storeys.com storeys.com. Tariffs on Canadian aluminum, steel, and potentially energy products created uncertainty for Calgary’s businesses, potentially dampening investment. The Bank of Canada referenced the “damaging effect of U.S. tariffs” in its decision-making reuters.com. For housing, this kind of macro risk can reduce consumer confidence – people are less likely to make a big purchase if they fear an economic downturn. So far, Alberta has weathered it (helped by being less directly hit than manufacturing-heavy provinces), but it’s a factor to watch.
• Municipal Policies & Initiatives: The City of Calgary itself has implemented policies that influence real estate. One is the Downtown Strategy, including the Downtown Calgary Development Incentive Program (for office conversions discussed earlier). By effectively subsidizing the removal of office space and addition of housing, the City is trying to realign downtown real estate with new realities. This aims to reduce commercial vacancy and increase residential density, and so far it’s showing concrete progress (with thousands of new homes coming downtown) cmhc-schl.gc.ca. Another city initiative is fast-tracking new community approvals to address housing supply. In late 2023, Calgary’s council controversially approved 8 new suburban communities after initially hesitating, in response to intense housing demand. Again in 2024, more land releases were considered. These decisions expand land supply which in theory keeps lot prices and eventually house prices from spiking too much. Of course, they also raise questions about infrastructure costs and sprawl. The City also adjusted its Service Plan and Budget in Nov 2024 to support housing and land use investments, facilitating development of new communities and redevelopment of older ones mortgagesandbox.com. This means budget dollars are allocated for things like water, roads, and planning processes to get housing built faster. There’s also a push to allow more infills and multi-family in established areas – part of Calgary’s evolving zoning (set to be revamped under a new city plan that encourages more density along corridors). Taxes and fees can’t be ignored either. Calgary doesn’t have a land transfer tax like some provinces (a plus for affordability). It relies on property taxes, which have been a bit volatile with downtown office values dropping shifting the burden to other property classes. In 2025, residential property taxes saw a modest increase, and there’s ongoing debate about creating a more balanced tax structure. For developers, the City’s off-site levies and permit processes matter – Calgary has been working on cutting red tape to bring projects to market quicker (e.g., pilot projects for faster permit approvals were initiated in 2024–25). Additionally, at the federal level, policies like the Foreign Buyer Ban (which took effect in 2023 and prohibits most foreigners from buying residential property in Canada for a period, now extended to 2027) canada.ca indirectly affect Calgary. While Calgary historically hasn’t had as large a foreign investor segment as Vancouver or Toronto, the ban still removes some potential demand, especially from buyers out of country looking at condos. However, Alberta is one of the provinces that advocated for loosening that ban since foreign investment here was not deemed a major issue. In spring 2023, some amendments were made (e.g., allowing those on work permits to buy), which slightly opened the door. Overall, government policies in Calgary are currently focused on increasing housing supply and revitalizing downtown. These are pro-real-estate development stances aimed at easing the housing crunch and transforming unused office space. The effect in the market is generally positive: more supply to help affordability, and more confidence that downtown can evolve rather than stagnate. However, there’s a balance to strike – too much supply at once could overshoot (though Calgary’s high demand makes that unlikely near-term), and incentives cost money. Stakeholders will be watching how effectively these policies translate into real housing units and occupied space.
• Infrastructure & Transit: As covered under developments, big infrastructure projects like the Green Line LRT and the Ring Road completion are shaping real estate by opening new areas for development and increasing accessibility. Real estate markets typically anticipate these – for instance, areas near planned Green Line stations (like Ogden or Inglewood) have already seen land values climb and new housing proposals. Improved transit can boost property values and attract certain buyers/renters who prioritize connectivity. Conversely, delays or uncertainty in such projects (and the Green Line saw many delays and scope changes) can temper development enthusiasm. In 2025, with shovels finally in the ground for Green Line, there’s more confidence for transit-oriented projects. Similarly, Calgary’s airport recently got a new runway and upgrades in the late 2010s; by 2025, it’s mulling further expansion as passenger volumes recover – airport expansions typically lead to more nearby hotel and logistics development. Another infrastructure aspect is public amenities – new schools, hospitals, recreation centers. Calgary’s new communities often hinge on promises of schools and amenities; provincial budget decisions on schools can affect which new areas are most attractive to young families. In 2025, the province is funding new schools in many of the growth areas (which is needed given the population surge). A brand new Cancer Centre opened in late 2023 near Foothills Hospital, which even has land use impacts (as it employs many and might increase nearby housing demand from medical staff). All told, infrastructure development is largely a positive factor in Calgary’s real estate, enhancing long-term value and livability.

In summary, 2025’s market drivers are a mixed bag: Tight monetary policy and some economic uncertainties tap the brakes, while strong population inflows and supportive local policies step on the gas. Calgary finds itself somewhat in equilibrium because these factors counterbalance: e.g., huge immigration would have caused runaway prices if not for high interest rates slowing things down. For the future, watch for changes in any of these levers – a significant drop in mortgage rates, or a big fall in immigration, for example – as they could tilt the market dynamics once again.

Investment Trends and Opportunities

Calgary’s real estate scene in 2025 presents a variety of investment angles, for both local and outside investors, across residential and commercial sectors. The market’s transition to balance, after a period of rapid growth, has created some new opportunities (and challenges) for those looking to deploy capital in Calgary property.

Residential Investment: During the 2020–2022 boom, many investors jumped into Calgary’s housing market, drawn by relatively low prices (especially compared to Toronto/Vancouver) and strong rent prospects. Small-scale investors bought condos and suburban single-family homes to rent out, while larger players (REITs, asset managers) started to acquire or develop rental projects. By 2025, the landscape has shifted slightly. With rent growth stalling and interest rates high, the calculus for leveraged investors is trickier. Some condo investors who bought at peak prices in 2022–23 are seeing cash flow squeeze – their mortgage costs have risen and rents are no longer skyrocketing, so their profit margins are thin or negative. This is one reason condo listings have increased; a portion of investors are opting to cash out. That said, many are holding on, betting on long-term appreciation and treating short-term cash flow as secondary.

One emerging opportunity is in the condo market itself – with prices softening a bit and lots of supply, savvy investors may find deals on brand-new units, especially if developers offer discounts or incentives to close out buildings. Some developers facing slow sales have offered rental guarantees or price adjustments, which could attract investors hunting bargains. Additionally, the office-to-residential conversions downtown offer a potentially interesting investment play: these projects are creating unique loft-style apartments in the core, and some will be rental, some possibly for sale. Early investors might partner in these conversions or plan to acquire units if they go condo. The City’s incentives make these financially appealing to developers, which could translate into attractive pricing for end buyers.

Another segment is purpose-built rental developments. Institutional investors, including pension funds and REITs, have increasingly looked at Calgary for building or buying rental apartment buildings. For example, Boardwalk REIT (a major apartment owner based in Alberta) has been expanding its portfolio. With vacancy rising, one might think twice, but the long-term thesis is that Calgary’s population growth will keep rental demand robust and rents will resume moderate growth once the current new supply is absorbed. Compared to other cities, cap rates (initial yields) on Calgary rental properties are higher, reflecting perhaps a 5%+ cap rate versus sub-4% in Vancouver/Toronto. Some investors see that as a buy signal – getting a decent yield and potential appreciation as the city grows. In 2025, we actually see Canadian REITs and funds raising allocations for multi-family housing, as they expect better returns in 2025–2027 after a lull deeded.ca. Well-funded investors are also circling distressed or struggling condo development projects, which they can potentially buy out or convert to rentals if smaller developers hit financing issues deeded.ca.

Foreign Investment: Historically, Calgary hasn’t had the same level of direct foreign buying of homes as, say, Vancouver. However, in the mid-2010s, there was some increase in foreign interest (including from China and the Middle East) in condos and land when the market was depressed (seeking value buys). The Federal foreign buyer ban (2023-2027) basically put a pause on any new foreign purchases of residential canada.ca. So in 2025, foreign individuals are largely out of the equation for houses/condos. That being said, foreign capital can still come in via development or commercial deals. Notably, some U.S. private equity and global funds have been looking at Calgary’s rental and industrial sectors. Also, Alberta never had a foreign buyers’ tax (unlike BC and Ontario), so when the ban eventually lifts or if exceptions apply (e.g., students or work permit holders can buy after amendments), Calgary might see a bump from pent-up foreign interest. For instance, if international students (a big portion of the non-permanent resident inflow) decide to buy condos while on work permits (now allowed), that could be a niche boost.

Commercial Investment: On the commercial side, industrial properties are the current darlings. Investors across Canada are hot on industrial, and Calgary’s combination of lower entry price and high demand makes it attractive. We have seen large transactions like portfolio sales of logistics centers in Calgary to institutional buyers. Yields in Calgary might be around 5-5.5% for industrial, a bit higher than more constrained markets, making it a relatively good buy. With e-commerce continuing, many view industrial as a long-term stable bet. Some local developers who built spec industrial in 2018–2021 have been cashing out now at hefty profits, selling completed leased buildings to passive investors. There is also interest in developing new industrial on a build-to-suit basis for companies, which investors then hold.

For office investments, it’s a contrarian play. Most investors are wary of Calgary offices given the high vacancy and uncertain recovery. Prices for older office buildings have plunged to where some trade at fractions of replacement cost. A bold strategy by some opportunistic investors (including local entrepreneurs and firms) has been to buy distressed office towers for conversion or repurposing. For example, a group might purchase a near-empty B-class office building at a deep discount and then apply for the City conversion grant to turn it into residences or other uses. If done successfully, the end value can far exceed the acquisition price plus conversion cost, yielding a nice profit. However, these projects are complex and not guaranteed, and require developer expertise, not just passive investing. Traditional office leasing investment remains risky in Calgary; we haven’t heard of many mainstream funds buying Calgary office towers in 2025 – in fact, more common is owners defaulting or handing keys to lenders in past years. So office is mostly for special situation investors right now.

Retail properties are somewhat in the middle. Calgary’s retail has decent fundamentals, so properties like grocery-anchored strips or well-located shopping centres can be solid income plays. National retail investors still like Calgary – e.g., RioCan, First Capital and others operate here and continue to see good results. The key is picking the right retail – those tied to growing neighbourhoods or unique draws (like the new Farmer’s Market West site, which is likely an investment magnet). The rise of mixed-use also means investors sometimes buy or develop a project that has both residential and retail components, diversifying their return streams.

Land and Development: Land investment is another angle. Those who bought land in Calgary’s outskirts 5-10 years ago have likely seen big upticks in value as that land gets absorbed for new communities. In 2025, land prices at the fringe are rising with all the new community announcements. Some investors specialize in entitling land (getting zoning approvals) then flipping to builders – this can be lucrative in a growth phase. Within the city, infill land (lots for duplexes or small condos) also has gone up in value thanks to demand for inner-city housing. But one must watch zoning changes – Calgary is moving to a new land use bylaw that could upzone many parcels for higher density, potentially increasing their value. Conversely, if too much new suburban land is released at once, land price escalation could slow.

Rental Yields vs. Appreciation: Calgary has traditionally been more of a cash-flow market than a pure appreciation play (compared to hotter markets). In 2025, gross rental yields for a typical condo might be around 5-6%, which is relatively good, but net yield (after expenses) could be 3-4%, which, with current mortgage rates, might mean neutral or slightly negative cash flow for highly leveraged investors. This has tempered some speculation and kept the market from overheating further – a healthy thing. A lot of local investors are in it for the long game, expecting that even if cash flow is slim now, they will benefit from future price appreciation as Calgary grows to a metro of 2+ million by 2030. Indeed, some out-of-province investors consider Calgary “undervalued” – e.g. a detached house at $600k here vs. $1.5M in Toronto – and foresee convergence. Whether that plays out is uncertain, but if Calgary’s economy remains robust, prices likely have room to run upward in the long term, providing upside to those who buy during this calmer period.

Flipping and Short-Term Trading: In the height of the boom, flipping houses or condos was a thing (some investors made quick profits as prices jumped month to month). By 2025, flipping opportunities have diminished due to stable prices. Flippers now have to actually add value (through renovation or redevelopment) rather than just rely on market momentum. There’s still an active home renovation and resale segment, especially with older homes in good locations – investors can buy a dated home in, say, Lake Bonavista, fully renovate it, and resell to a family at a premium. That works as long as the buy-in price is right. The spread between old and new home prices in established areas gives room for that.

AirBnB/Short-term rentals: This is another micro-trend. Calgary’s tourism and convention business bounced back in 2023–2024 (Stampede, events, etc.), and while not as big as some cities, there is a market for short-term rentals. Some investors have tried AirBnB strategies with downtown condos or houses near popular attractions. There’s no municipal ban on short-term rentals (though regulations are being discussed), so it’s an avenue. However, the returns vs. effort and regulatory risk means it’s not huge scale; more of a niche for a few savvy players.

In sum, investors in 2025 find Calgary’s real estate attractive for its fundamentals and relative value. The market is not in a frenzy, which is actually inviting to prudent investors who can pick up assets at reasonable prices without having to engage in bidding wars. The top opportunities seem to lie in areas like rental housing (taking advantage of any softness now to position for future gains), industrial/logistics facilities (banking on Calgary’s growing role in that sector), and value-add projects (like conversions or renovations). Local knowledge is key – knowing which neighbourhoods are up-and-coming (e.g. Forest Lawn’s revitalization potential avenuecalgary.com, or which suburbs will get the next school) can yield an edge. There’s also a sense that timing is good: some investors view 2025 as a year to buy on a dip – the market has paused after big growth, so entering now could allow riding the next upward cycle, especially if interest rates drop and demand surges again. As one real estate advisor put it, Calgary in 2025 is “neither a buyers’ nor sellers’ market – it’s an investors’ market,” where informed investors can make strategic moves while end-users sit on the fence.

Neighborhoods to Watch in Calgary

Calgary is a city of diverse neighbourhoods, each with its own dynamics. In 2025, some areas are experiencing rapid growth or significant change worth highlighting:

• New Suburban Communities: Calgary’s fastest growth is at its edges, in brand-new communities that didn’t exist a few years ago. For example, Yorkville in the far southwest (west of Macleod Trail at 194th Ave SW) is one of the city’s newest neighbourhoods avenuecalgary.com. It features a central park, ponds, and family-friendly home designs, already attracting many young families. Nearby established areas like Silverado and Legacy provide shops and schools until Yorkville’s own amenities come fully online avenuecalgary.com. In the north, Glacier Ridge and Ambleton (just north of Evanston) are expanding, offering new single-family homes and townhomes that are more affordable than closer-in suburbs. Belvedere in the far east (past Abbeydale) is another massive area coming to life, slated to eventually house tens of thousands. These new areas collectively capture a large share of Calgary’s population increase – indeed, actively developing suburbs accounted for ~61% of all housing unit growth over 2021–2025 calgary.ca. Investors and homebuilders are very active here, as demand from first-time buyers and newcomers for suburban homes remains high. The city has also approved Alpine Park in the southwest, Keystone Hills in the north, and more – essentially if you look at Calgary’s map, the outline is pushing outward. These neighbourhoods promise the latest in modern suburban planning: open-concept homes, extensive pathway systems, and often a village centre concept with mixed-use elements.
• Inner-City Vibrancy – Marda Loop & Area: Marda Loop (encompassing South Calgary, Altadore, Garrison Woods) has been undergoing a construction boom. It’s already a top destination for boutique shopping and trendy restaurants, but now it’s getting even denser. Many old bungalows have given way to rowhouses and small condos. The area is under development pressure such that “many of its streets seem to be a revolving door of construction” avenuecalgary.com. One major project kicking off is the Marc and Mada Block, a two-acre mixed-use development by Calgary Co-op and Truman Homes avenuecalgary.com. It will bring new residential units plus retail (including presumably a new Co-op grocery store) to the heart of Marda Loop. While construction is an inconvenience now (with road closures and noise), the revitalization is expected to enhance the pedestrian experience and bring more residents and commercial activity to the area in the long run avenuecalgary.com. Essentially, Marda Loop is evolving from a low-rise district to a mid-rise urban village, all while maintaining a hip vibe. It’s definitely a neighbourhood to watch – property values have climbed significantly, and once projects complete, it will be one of Calgary’s most sought-after addresses for those who want inner-city living without downtown high-rises.
• Downtown/Beltline & East Village: Calgary’s Beltline (just south of downtown) has been one of the fastest-growing areas by population over the last decade, thanks to numerous condo towers. In 2025, the Beltline continues to add residents. Notable is the ongoing success of 17th Ave SW as an entertainment district – new bars and eateries replace old ones, keeping it fresh. As more people work from home or hybrid, living in the Beltline (with its walkability) has become attractive. Meanwhile, the adjacent East Village (downtown’s east end) is maturing as a community. All planned condo towers there are now built or underway, and amenities like the Central Library and Studio Bell music center make it a cultural hub. The East Village has a new grocery store (opened in 2021) and other retail that finally give it the complete community feel. With the new Event Centre being built just south of East Village, that whole district will see even more development. Expect restaurants, pubs, and hotels to start popping up by 2026 around 12th Ave and 4th Street SE. For now, land is being assembled and some older buildings demolished in Victoria Park. If one projects forward, by 2030 the Beltline/East Village/Rivers District could house many thousands more residents and be far more vibrant, essentially extending downtown’s liveliness beyond office hours.
• Revitalization in Greater Forest Lawn: The Forest Lawn area (in east Calgary along International Avenue SE) has long been an immigrant-rich, working-class community with relatively low housing prices – and, frankly, a rough-around-the-edges reputation. However, it’s increasingly seen as the next frontier for revitalization. The City has designated parts of Forest Lawn for a major redevelopment and revitalization project, aiming to add housing options and improve public spaces avenuecalgary.com. There’s talk of a new Forest Lawn Civic Centre that would be a cultural and recreational hub (though funding is still in the works) avenuecalgary.com. Already, International Avenue (17 Ave SE) got a streetscape makeover a couple of years back, making it more pedestrian-friendly and highlighting its global market feel (with diverse shops and cuisines). Investors are eyeing Forest Lawn because it’s one of the last inner-city areas with bargain property prices. As the Avenue magazine notes, Forest Lawn “is primed to be a great area, especially for investors eager to find an opportunity as new residents flood into the city and young families get priced out of the western side of the inner city” avenuecalgary.com. Essentially, as places like Marda Loop and Inglewood have become expensive, people look to the east for affordable homes near downtown, and Forest Lawn fits the bill. If civic improvements continue and crime issues are addressed, Forest Lawn could gentrify significantly in the coming years. Already, one can find stylish infill homes popping up on some streets, and local businesses like microbreweries or art spaces starting to appear, signaling early stages of change.
• University District & NW Revamps: In the northwest, the University District near the University of Calgary has become a model mixed-use community. Throughout 2020-2025, several condo buildings, rental apartments, and a retail main street have been completed. It’s drawing not just students, but downsizers and young professionals with its appealing design and amenities (like a movie theatre, grocery, restaurants all within walking distance). It shows how Calgary is embracing urban principles in suburban context. Nearby, the older Brentwood and Banff Trail areas are seeing transit-oriented projects due to their LRT stations and proximity to U of C. Expect more mid-rise condos and apartments in those zones.
• Luxury Pockets: At the high end, neighbourhoods like Elbow Park, Mount Royal, Britannia remain the pinnacle of luxury living and have seen some record sales even in a balanced market – wealth in Calgary is still evident, and those established areas hold value. On the flip side, some suburban luxury areas (like Springbank Hill, Aspen Woods) that saw a glut of high-end homes after 2015 are now seeing improved activity as more high earners move in from out of province, finding those prices a steal compared to Vancouver.
• Outside City Edges: It’s worth noting the growth in areas just outside Calgary like Airdrie, Cochrane, Chestermere, etc., which are effectively satellite communities. For instance, Airdrie to the north has boomed and now is a city of ~80,000. In 2025 its market is robust (Airdrie’s benchmark home price actually hit new records creb.com). These towns benefit from Calgary’s growth but offer small-town feel or specific lifestyle draws (like Chestermere’s lake). They are increasingly integrated (some people live there and commute to Calgary or vice versa). So in a broader sense, the entire Calgary region has neighbourhoods of note, not just within city limits.

In summary, the neighbourhoods showing the most momentum in 2025 include the brand-new suburbs carving Calgary’s new edges, trendy inner districts densifying with infills and mixed-use projects (Marda Loop, Inglewood, Kensington to some extent), and previously overlooked areas like Forest Lawn on the cusp of renewal. Each offers different opportunities: new suburbs for volume builders and young families, inner-city for urban lifestyles and boutique development, and transitioning areas for investors seeking value growth. Calgary’s decentralized nature – a mix of suburban sprawl and pockets of urbanity – means there isn’t one single “hottest” area, but rather multiple fronts of growth. Importantly, as Calgary continues to expand, connectivity between these neighbourhoods (via roads and transit) and ensuring amenities keep up will determine which truly thrive.

Market Outlook: Short-Term and Long-Term

Short-Term Outlook (2025–2026)

In the immediate future, Calgary’s real estate market is expected to remain balanced and relatively stable. The frenzy of the early 2020s has given way to a period of moderation. For the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, most analysts anticipate flat to modest growth in home prices, rather than any major swings. The Calgary Real Estate Board’s official forecast suggests that by the end of 2025, benchmark prices will be roughly on par with (or just slightly above) last year for detached and semi-detached homes, and a bit below last year for condos and townhomes storeys.com. In practical terms, this means we might see detached home prices inch up perhaps 1–2% and condo prices edge down by 1–2% over the year – essentially a wash, within margin of error of zero. Sales volumes are projected to be lower than the 2021–2022 heyday, but close to long-term averages (the CREB forecast about 23,000 sales in 2025, which is around the 10-year average) storeys.com storeys.com. This aligns with a healthy, functioning market where neither sellers nor buyers have a strong upper hand.

Several factors support this gentle outlook. Interest rates are a big one – as long as borrowing costs stay elevated, they act as a governor on price growth. If the Bank of Canada continues with cautious rate cuts into 2026 (perhaps getting the overnight rate down to ~2% or so from 2.5% now, assuming inflation is under control), mortgage rates might dip accordingly. That would improve affordability a bit, potentially boosting demand. However, it’s unlikely we return to the super-low 1.5% mortgages of 2021 anytime soon. So the market probably won’t re-enter a speculative frenzy in the short term; instead, any increase in buyer capacity would be met by the still plentiful supply, keeping things in check. The scenario to watch would be if the BoC cuts rates faster or deeper than expected (for example, in response to a recession). Oddly, a recession could bring rates down, which might spur housing demand even as the economy weakens – but if people are losing jobs, they may not buy houses. So, short-term, it’s a balanced act.

On the supply side, 2025 and 2026 will see a lot of housing completions, as discussed. This new supply (particularly condos and rentals) will continue to give buyers options and prevent excessive price increases. We might actually see listings increase if more investors decide to offload properties or if move-up buyers feel confident to list their current home (since it’s easier to find a new one now). A rising inventory could nudge the market towards a slight buyer’s advantage in some segments. For instance, condo buyers in 2026 might find they can negotiate prices down a bit if multiple similar units are on the market. The short-term risk of a price correction seems low, however, because Calgary’s prices didn’t overshoot fundamentals dramatically and the population growth backstop is strong. It’s more likely we see a soft landing glide path – minor adjustments rather than any sharp drop.

The rental market in the short term will likely continue to be tenant-favorable. As mentioned, vacancy could rise further in late 2025 when a bunch more projects open (some forecasts suggest vacancy peaking around 6% or so). Therefore, 2025–26 might actually be an excellent window for renters to secure good deals or for companies to negotiate office leases (if they need them) at advantageous rates. But by late 2026, if immigration remains robust, a lot of that new housing may start to be absorbed, potentially tightening the market once again.

In commercial real estate, office vacancy isn’t expected to improve dramatically in the short run. We might see downtown vacancy hover around 30% through 2026 cbre.ca – any improvement will be slow. The opening of the new Event Centre in 2027 could be a catalyst for downtown (attracting businesses, etc.), but that’s just beyond the short term. Industrial should remain strong short-term; if anything, by 2026 we might see vacancy tick back down as current new supply is absorbed, unless a lot of new builds start again. Retail will ride on consumer spending – short term, with interest rates high, spending might be lukewarm, but as long as employment is fine, retail occupancy should hold steady.

The wildcard in the short term is always something unexpected – e.g., a sudden oil price spike or crash, a change in government policy, etc. Alberta will have another provincial election by 2027, and there’s always some policy differences (like approaches to attracting business or funding housing). But within 2025–26, policies are relatively set (e.g., foreign buyer ban stays, immigration targets maybe slightly reduced but still high, etc.). Unless there’s a severe global recession hitting commodity demand, Calgary’s economy should grow modestly and support the housing market.

In summary, the short-term outlook is for a “soft landing” and plateau. Buyers can expect more choice and less stress than a couple years ago, and maybe slightly better affordability if rates dip. Sellers need to be realistic on pricing and expect longer days on market. Investors will find a calmer environment to pick their spots. Essentially, 2025–26 is slated to be a period of stability and reset – allowing incomes to catch up a bit to prices, and housing supply to catch up to population – which sets a healthier stage for the longer term.

Long-Term Outlook (2027–2030)

Looking further ahead to the rest of the decade, Calgary’s real estate prospects remain fundamentally positive, although growth is projected to be more moderate and sustainable compared to the rollercoaster of the 2010s and early 2020s. A number of long-term trends and forecasts paint a picture of what Calgary’s market might look like by 2030:

• Population and Housing Demand: Calgary’s metro population is expected to continue rising, potentially approaching or exceeding 2 million by 2030 (up from ~1.6–1.7 million in 2025). However, as discussed, the rate of growth may slow from the extraordinary ~4-6% yearly spikes to something closer to 1.5–2.5% annually atb.com. Even at 2% per year, that’s roughly 30,000+ new residents each year needing housing. The composition of growth might tilt more towards natural increase and intra-provincial moves if immigration is dialed back. But Calgary will likely remain a relatively young city (median age early 30s) with many new family formations. This underpins consistent housing demand, particularly for family-oriented homes and rentals for new arrivals. By 2030 the huge Millennial cohort will be in their 30s and 40s (prime home-buying age) and Gen Z in their 20s and early 30s (entering rental/first-home stage). So demographic momentum is there.
• Housing Supply and Construction: After the record-building years of early 2020s, will Calgary keep it up? The city’s own economic outlook suggests housing starts will average around 21,000 units per year from 2023-2026 calgary.ca (which is very high historically). There might be a slight dip in the later 2020s if demand growth slows or if high construction costs persist. However, to meet the cumulative demand, Calgary likely needs to continue building aggressively. The CMHC’s national housing shortfall report indicated Canada needs millions more homes by 2030 to restore affordability truenorthmortgage.ca. For Calgary, that implies tens of thousands of additional units beyond current plans. It’s ambitious, but Calgary has an advantage – abundant land and comparatively faster approvals – to actually add supply. We might see the city emphasizing density in established areas by 2030 (e.g., more missing middle housing) as well as developing new fringe communities. If construction does taper off due to economic factors, there’s a risk of another tight market by late decade. But if Calgary can keep housing starts near ~15k+ annually through 2030, it should accommodate growth with only modest price increases. Essentially, the long-term supply strategy will decide whether Calgary stays affordable or starts to feel supply pressure again.
• Price Trajectory: Long-run home price appreciation in Calgary is likely to revert to more normal levels – perhaps in line with inflation or slightly above (e.g., maybe 2–4% per year). The city’s own forecast in spring 2025 implied benchmark home price growth would remain virtually unchanged this cycle calgary.ca, owing to strong supply matching demand. But beyond 2026, if population growth is still positive and the economy is stable, modest annual price gains are reasonable. We certainly aren’t expecting another doubling of prices in a short time as happened in some earlier booms. By 2030, one could envision the average Calgary home price being maybe 15–25% higher than 2025 levels. So if it’s ~$600k now, perhaps on the order of $700k–$750k in 2030 (rough estimate), barring any wild events. RBC’s longer-term projections (from some investor materials) put Calgary’s average around $810k by 2025 vestaproperties.com – but that seems off given current reality; more likely that kind of figure might be reached closer to 2030. Importantly, Calgary’s home prices will also depend on the interest rate regime. Many expect globally that the late 2020s might see a return to more normal interest rates (i.e., not as low as 2020, but not as high as 2023), which could facilitate steady but not runaway price growth.
• Economic Evolution: Over the next 5+ years, Calgary’s economy will keep diversifying. The hope (and to some extent the trend) is that by 2030 Calgary is not so heavily tied to oil booms and busts. Growth sectors could include technology (with initiatives to make Calgary a tech hub paying off), renewable energy and clean tech (leveraging Alberta’s expertise but transitioning to future energy sources), logistics (with Calgary as a major Western distribution centre), and possibly more tourism and culture (with expanded convention center, new event centre, maybe even future events like a bid for Expo or another large event to showcase the city). If Alberta manages to decouple slightly from oil fortunes, the real estate market could enjoy more stability instead of sharp cyclical swings. However, oil & gas will still be significant in 2030 – realistically, global energy demand isn’t collapsing by then, and Alberta has low-cost reserves. So Calgary likely will see at least one more energy upcycle by 2030 – which would bolster incomes, employment, and housing demand (and could cause a mini-boom in housing if not matched by supply).
• Downtown and Urban Core 2030: A big question mark: what will downtown Calgary look like in 2030? Ideally, by 2030 downtown vacancy will have substantially reduced, thanks to conversions and new uses. The City’s goal of removing 6 million sq ft of office by 2031 would bring vacancy down by around 15 percentage points if achieved. So downtown vacancy might drop from ~30% to the mid-teens by 2030 – that’s a target, though not guaranteed. A more vibrant mixed-use downtown with, say, 10,000+ more residents living there (due to conversions and new residential builds) is envisioned. If that happens, it could change market dynamics: downtown condos might see a renaissance, and areas around downtown (Beltline, East Village) could see stronger appreciation because downtown is an attractive place to live again. The Event Centre, new culture venues, maybe an influx of students if a downtown campus or something expands – these factors could revitalize demand for central real estate. Essentially, downtown Calgary 2030 is either a great turnaround story (which would lift property values there significantly) or a continued struggle (in which case those condo prices might languish). Given current momentum and civic focus, we lean optimistic on this front.
• Infrastructure by 2030: The Green Line LRT first phase is expected to be operational by 2030 en.wikipedia.org. This will be a game-changer for transit in the north-central and southeast corridors. Real estate around those 10 new stations should see a bump – typically, properties within walking distance to a station command a premium once the line is running. In the long term, if phases beyond are funded (into north central Calgary), that will open up even more TOD (transit-oriented development) opportunities. Also by 2030, other projects like possibly a foothills medical centre expansion, maybe the airport gets a new terminal, etc., could be in play. Calgary might consider bidding for global events (they considered 2030 Commonwealth Games, though that was shelved – but maybe something else). Those events often spur infrastructure and housing (though also cost money).
• Climate and Environment: While not often front-and-center in short-term market talk, by 2030 climate considerations could start impacting real estate more. Calgary has relatively low climate risk (no sea-level rise, etc.), but events like the 2013 flood showed vulnerabilities. By 2030 the new flood barriers and mitigation on the Bow and Elbow Rivers should be fully in place to protect downtown and inner areas. That could actually improve desirability of river-adjacent property (if people trust the protections). Calgary’s climate draw could increase as some other places suffer (we already hear of climate migrants). Clean energy transition could also mean by 2030 there are new industries (like hydrogen or lithium) bolstering the economy.
• Affordability and Policy: Housing affordability will remain a public concern. Compared nationally, Calgary is still one of the more affordable big cities, but if prices rise and interest rates don’t drop much, local affordability could worsen. The city and province might implement measures to ensure moderate-income families can own or rent reasonably. Already in 2023–24, Calgary saw a bit of a rental crisis which eased with supply; they may not want to repeat that. We could see more partnerships for affordable housing (like converting empty offices to affordable units with government funding). If, in the long-term, housing supply doesn’t keep up or if the market accelerates again, there’s always a chance of policy intervention (for example, more stringent mortgage rules or taxes) to calm it. But those are hard to predict.

Considering all, the long-term outlook through 2030 for Calgary real estate is cautiously optimistic. Calgary is poised to continue growing, both in population and in its role as an economic center. Real estate demand should grow in tandem, but likely at a pace that the city (through proactive development) can manage. The major difference from past decades could be reduced volatility – Calgary may transition into a more steady growth market like some other metros. Homeowners can expect their property values to increase at a healthy, not heady, rate, building equity over time. Renters might benefit from a larger rental stock and more balanced rent inflation (though rent increases will resume as the current supply is absorbed). Commercial landlords in offices will hope for a diversified tenant base by 2030, while industrial landlords will likely be sitting on appreciated assets in a fully built-out industrial market.

One could say Calgary in 2030 might resemble something like what Denver or Austin experienced – cities that grew rapidly, diversified their economies, and saw real estate rise but remain more affordable than coastal superstar cities. Calgary’s quality of life (sunny weather, proximity to mountains, clean city) and relative affordability could attract businesses and people continuously, reinforcing a positive cycle. Short of unforeseen shocks, the city is on track for stable expansion. Therefore, long-term investors see Calgary as a solid bet; families see it as a place where home ownership will remain achievable; and the city’s planners see an opportunity to guide growth smartly (more density, more transit) so that by 2030 Calgary is a bigger but also better-connected and more livable city. In real estate terms, that means a larger market but one hopefully characterized by equilibrium – the right balance of supply and demand leading to neither bubble nor bust, but sustained prosperity.