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Boomtown or Slowdown? Inside Jackson Hole’s Surprising 2025 Real Estate Trends and 2028 Outlook

September 25, 2025
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Boomtown or Slowdown? Inside Jackson Hole’s Surprising 2025 Real Estate Trends and 2028 Outlook

Key Facts

  • Home Prices Cool Slightly: Jackson Hole’s median sale price hovered around $1.78 million in mid‑2025, down about 11% year-over-year from 2024’s peak, though the average sale price stayed high at ~$4.3 million due to continued luxury sales kwjacksonhole.com. Even after a post-pandemic cooldown (a 4.8% dip in average price in 2024 vs 2023 jacksonhole-real-estate.com), prices remain near record levels and luxury homes routinely top $10–20 million kwjacksonhole.com kwjacksonhole.com.
  • Sales Rebound & Volume Up: After a quiet 2023, transaction activity picked up in 2025. The first half of 2025 saw roughly 8% more sales than the same period in 2024 kwjacksonhole.com, and total dollar volume jumped 14–16% year-over-year kwjacksonhole.com. High-end sales led the charge – nearly 75% of Q1 single-family home sales were over $5 million kwjacksonhole.com – but mid-market condos/townhomes also surged ~30% in sales as prices stabilized kwjacksonhole.com.
  • Low Inventory Easing: Inventory is still historically tight but improving. Active listings in mid-2025 were up ~16% from a year prior (283 properties) kwjacksonhole.com, finally giving buyers a bit more choice after the pandemic inventory crunch. However, supply remains skewed to the high end – e.g. 40% of single-family listings top $8 million kwjacksonhole.com – and entry-level options under $3 million are scarce (just ~23% of house listings kwjacksonhole.com). Many owners who bought during the COVID boom aren’t selling, keeping inventory limited.
  • Rental Goldmine for Investors: Jackson Hole’s vacation rental market yields some of the highest returns in the Rockies. Short-term rental properties (Airbnbs) average about $70,800 in annual revenue with a hefty $562 nightly rate and ~46% occupancy airroi.com airroi.com. Demand for homes zoned for short-term rental is intense – such properties made up ~45% of all condo/townhome sales in early 2025 kwjacksonhole.com. With tourism booming in this year-round resort, typical cap rates remain attractive despite home price appreciation.
  • New Developments Booming: Developers are betting big on Jackson’s future. Major projects are in the pipeline – from a 109-room luxury hotel + condos on North Cache Street (approved mid-2025) jacksonwy.gov to 60 new resort condos at Snow King Mountain (with 12 workforce units) jacksonwy.gov. Over 1,400 new homes (70% deed-restricted for locals) were approved in the Northern South Park plan, Jackson’s largest housing development in decades kwjacksonhole.com kwjacksonhole.com. And 219 affordable/workforce housing units were under construction as of early 2025 to help address the local housing crunch tetoncountywy.gov. These developments aim to ease housing shortages and modernize the market by 2026–2028.
  • Zoning & Policy Shifts: Local authorities are tightly managing growth. In 2024 the Town of Jackson enacted a moratorium on new commercial buildings over 35,000 sq ft downtown, to curb oversized projects until land-use rules were updated jacksonwy.gov. Teton County also expanded its Natural Resources Overlay in 2025 to cover the entire county, meaning every property now faces environmental review in permittingjacksonholerealestatereport.com. Stricter wildlife, slope, and habitat protections (and tiered reviews by ecological sensitivity) will impact future developmentjacksonholerealestatereport.comjacksonholerealestatereport.com. Meanwhile, state and local officials are pushing pro-housing measures (like Northern South Park) to balance conservation with the need for workforce housing.
  • Infrastructure Upgrades Underway: A wave of infrastructure investment is accompanying the real estate growth. Road projects on Highway 22 (new Snake River bridge, Teton Pass slide repairs) are improving key corridors dot.state.wy.us dot.state.wy.us. In 2025, construction began on a 2,100 sq ft transit center with 400 parking spaces at Stilson (near Wilson), aiming to reduce traffic into Jackson and Teton Village tetonbuildgrant.com. The Jackson Hole Airport is mid-way through multi-year upgrades (runway rehab, expanded de-icing pads, new admin facilities) to boost safety and capacity by 2026 jacksonholeairport.com jacksonholeairport.com. These investments in transit, roads, and the airport enhance long-term accessibility – a boon for tourism, commuters, and property values alike.
  • Outlook Through 2028 – Strong Yet Selective: Jackson Hole’s real estate trajectory remains bullish but moderating. Supply constraints – only ~3% of Teton County land is privately developable (97% is protected public land) jacksonhole-real-estate.com – will continue to underpin high property values. By 2028, home prices are expected to stay elevated or rise modestly, not crash, given persistent demand from affluent buyers seeking Wyoming’s tax benefits and alpine lifestyle (Wyoming levies no state income tax jacksonhole-real-estate.com). However, the post-pandemic frenzy has cooled into a more balanced market: buyers have more leverage than in 2021, and sellers must price strategically to attract offers as inventory inches up kwjacksonhole.com kwjacksonhole.com. Economic conditions will play a role – higher interest rates made buyers cautious in 2023–24, but any rate easing by 2026 could unleash a new wave of demand kwjacksonhole.com. Rental investors should see solid returns sustained, though new local regulations on short-term rentals remain a wildcard. Overall, barring a major downturn, Jackson Hole is poised to retain its status as an ultra-prime market through 2028, with incremental growth, ongoing luxury development, and steady interest from both lifestyle buyers and investors in this coveted mountain enclave.

Market Overview (2025)

Jackson Hole’s real estate market in 2025 is at an inflection point. After the meteoric rise of 2020–2021, the past year has seen a gradual normalization. Prices have cooled slightly from all-time highs, and inventory – while still tight – is finally expanding, leading to hints of a more balanced market. The first half of 2025 saw notably higher sales volume than 2024, signaling renewed buyer confidence despite higher interest rates mountainstandardrealty.com. Buyers and sellers are now adjusting strategies: buyers are regaining some negotiating power as options increase, while sellers face a more discerning market that rewards realistic pricing and property preparation.

Several dynamics define the 2025 landscape:

  • Luxury Resilience, Mid-Market Revival: The ultra-high-end segment remains robust. Jackson Hole has been one of the priciest U.S. mountain markets, second only to Aspen until recently jacksonhole-real-estate.com. In 2024, it slipped to the 5th highest resort market by average price as other areas saw bigger spikes jacksonhole-real-estate.com. But make no mistake – demand for trophy homes persists. So far in 2025, nearly 1 in 4 home sales exceeded $10 million kwjacksonhole.com. This kept the average sale price around $4–6 million in some quarters kwjacksonhole.com kwjacksonhole.com. At the same time, the mid-range market (e.g. condos and local family homes) is picking back up after a lull. In Q1 2025, condo/townhome transactions jumped 20% year-over-year kwjacksonhole.com as prices stabilized and some sellers became more flexible on terms kwjacksonhole.com. Buyers who were priced out during the COVID frenzy are cautiously re-entering, especially with a slight mortgage rate dip in early 2025 (sub-7% rates) boosting confidence kwjacksonhole.com.
  • Inventory: More Relief for Buyers: One of the biggest shifts in 2025 is the increase in homes for sale. By mid-year there were about 283 active listings, up ~16% from a year prior kwjacksonhole.com. This marks a much-needed boost in supply after record shortages – recall that in early 2022, bidding wars erupted over very few listings. Now, new listings are hitting the market at a steadier pace (especially in summer), giving buyers more choice. Not all segments are equally served, however. The entry-level and moderate price tiers remain undersupplied – for single-family homes, anything under ~$3 million is snapped up quickly and represented only ~23% of listings mid-2025 kwjacksonhole.com. High-end inventory has grown the most (many homeowners are testing the market at premium prices). Indeed, 40%+ of listed houses are asking over $8 million kwjacksonhole.com. This glut at the top means luxury sellers face competition, while buyers shopping above ~$5–8 million have more bargaining power than in past years. Overall, inventory gains, though modest, are nudging the market from an extreme seller’s market toward a more neutral footing.
  • Market Mood – Cautious Optimism: The attitude in 2025 is a mix of caution and optimism. On one hand, macroeconomic uncertainty (rising interest rates, stock market volatility) made some buyers and sellers hesitant in late 2023 and early 2024 mountainstandardrealty.com mountainstandardrealty.com. On the other hand, Jackson Hole continues to outperform many national markets, thanks to its unique appeal mountainstandardrealty.com. By mid-2025, consumer confidence locally was rebounding – bolstered by a spring stock market uptick and the sense that prices here rarely fall for long mountainstandardrealty.com mountainstandardrealty.com. Realtors report that “pent-up demand” from the quiet period is now materializing: properties that are priced well are moving quickly, and multiple offers have returned for desirable mid-range listings. At the same time, buyers are more value-conscious than during the frenzy. As one local broker observed, “today’s buyers are highly price-sensitive… Homes that are mispriced risk lingering on the market” kwjacksonhole.com kwjacksonhole.com. Indeed, in Q1 the average days on market for sold homes dropped ~20% (as sellers got realistic), but the average DOM for active listings was much higher – a sign that overpriced properties were sitting unsold kwjacksonhole.com kwjacksonhole.com. This climate rewards informed, strategic players on both sides of the deal.

In summary, 2025’s market remains elevated but is normalizing. For the first time in years, buyers can negotiate and inspect without panicking, while sellers face the reality that even in Jackson Hole, prices don’t only go up in a straight line. The rest of 2025 appears poised for continued strong activity – pending sales were nearly 38% higher heading into summer compared to 2024 kwjacksonhole.com – but with a healthier balance between supply and demand. Next, we’ll dive deeper into each property segment (residential, commercial, and investment properties) and the trends each group of market participants should note.

Residential Real Estate: High Prices and High Stakes for Homes

Residential properties (homes, condos, and land) form the core of Jackson Hole’s market, and 2025 brought a mix of subtle corrections and continuing strength to this sector. Here’s a breakdown by sub-category:

Single-Family Homes

After an extraordinary run-up, single-family home prices are leveling off at lofty heights. The median single-family home price hit about $3.16 million by mid-2025, up 14% year-on-year kwjacksonhole.com – a solid gain, but far more measured than the 30%+ annual jumps seen during 2020–21. The average home sale price spiked to $6.7 million (+34% YoY) kwjacksonhole.com, skewed by a few ultra-luxury sales over $10–20 million (including one above $50 million in late 2024 that set a record) kwjacksonhole.com. These figures underscore Jackson’s split personality: a handful of mega-deals can swing “average” prices, even as typical family homes (if you can call a $3 million house “typical”) see steadier appreciation.

Crucially, sales volume for houses has remained healthy. The number of single-family transactions in early 2025 was roughly flat to slightly up (+2% YoY by mid-year) kwjacksonhole.com, but notably 47% higher in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 kwjacksonhole.com as buyers jumped on increased inventory. Much of the action was within Jackson town limits and south of town – areas like Rafter J, Melody Ranch, and 3 Creek Ranch – indicating strong demand for homes near amenities kwjacksonhole.com. There’s also been an exodus of inventory at the high end: nearly 75% of Q1 house sales were over $5 million kwjacksonhole.com, suggesting that wealthy buyers are continuing to absorb legacy estates and newer luxury builds. Meanwhile, locals and entry-level buyers still struggle: very few detached homes trade hands below $1.5–2 million, and those that do are older or outside the core Jackson area. A persistent shortage of “affordable” homes (by Jackson standards) means many workers and young families remain priced out of this segment, unless they qualify for special housing programs (discussed later).

For home sellers, 2025 has introduced a new calculus. It’s no longer a guaranteed frenzy; it’s about smart pricing and timing. Well-prepared homes that hit the market at fair (if still high) prices are selling fast – the average DOM for sold homes fell to ~4.5 months in Q1 kwjacksonhole.com, which is brisk for multi-million-dollar properties. But overpriced listings now linger for 7–8+ months with few showings kwjacksonhole.com kwjacksonhole.com. Sellers have responded by being more strategic: some are refreshing or renovating homes pre-listing, others are cutting list prices if buyer traffic is weak. The silver lining for sellers is that, thanks to Jackson’s desirability, overall home values remain near historic highs, and many sellers still see multiple interested parties if they tick the right boxes (views, location, move-in-ready condition). In short, the single-family market in 2025 rewards those who adapt to its nuances – a shift from the frenzied anything-goes bidding wars of a few years ago.

Condos & Townhomes

The condo/townhome sector is experiencing a robust rebound in 2025. This segment cooled in 2022–23 (it was the only one that saw slight price dips post-2021) kwjacksonhole.com, but it has come roaring back as interest rates stabilized and buyers adapted. By mid-2025, condo/townhouse sales were up ~29–30% year-over-year kwjacksonhole.com. Many of these sales were concentrated in the town of Jackson, where condos offer a comparatively accessible entry point for second-home owners and locals alike kwjacksonhole.com.

Prices for condos/townhomes have firmed up after a brief correction. The median condo price is around $1.19 million as of mid-2025 (about +7% YoY) kwjacksonhole.com, and the average sale price is roughly $1.74 million kwjacksonhole.com. These averages were boosted because 2025 saw more high-end condo sales (luxury ski condos, new units in Teton Village, etc.) versus 2024, which had more entry-level deals kwjacksonhole.com kwjacksonhole.com. In fact, 2025’s condo market has tilted toward the upscale, with fewer sub-$1M sales – only ~30% of condo closings were below $1M kwjacksonhole.com. This reflects both the lack of inexpensive inventory and the strong appetite for amenity-rich condos that can serve as vacation homes or rental investments.

An important driver here is short-term rental potential. A significant share of condo buyers are investors or second-home seekers who want the option to Airbnb their unit when not in use. Properties zoned for nightly rentals (e.g. certain areas in town and Teton Village) are in extreme demand, comprising about 45% of all condo/townhome transactions in early 2025 kwjacksonhole.com. Buyers covet these units for the flexibility of earning income in peak tourist seasons. As a result, condos that allow short-term renting often command a premium and sell quickly. A local report noted that with steady prices, better inventory, and faster transaction times, “all signs point to a strong second half [of 2025] – especially in the short-term rental space, where demand remains high and well-positioned properties are moving efficiently.” kwjacksonhole.com In other words, if a condo is in a rentable location and priced right, it’s likely to get snapped up.

From a seller’s perspective, the condo/townhome revival is good news. After a period where rising mortgage rates thinned the buyer pool, 2025 has brought back multiple-offer situations for the most coveted units (particularly updated condos in downtown Jackson or ski-in/ski-out units). Still, sellers must recognize the bifurcation in this market: older or deed-restricted condos (which can’t be rented nightly) face a smaller buyer pool and may need more competitive pricing, whereas luxury and STR-friendly condos are seeing bidding wars again. Overall, the condo segment’s recovery, with transactions +20–30% and prices up ~7–17% year-on-year kwjacksonhole.com kwjacksonhole.com, adds momentum to Jackson Hole’s residential market as 2025 progresses.

Vacant Land & Ranches

The vacant land market in Jackson Hole is a tale of limited opportunities and long horizons. With so little private land available in Teton County, land sales make up the smallest share of transactions (roughly 10–15% of the market) kwjacksonhole.com. Many parcels are challenging – remote locations, steep terrain, or regulatory hurdles – which means land tends to move slowly and prices can fluctuate wildly with each sale.

So far in 2025, land sales volumes are basically flat: mid-year saw 22 land transactions, just one fewer than the prior year kwjacksonhole.com kwjacksonhole.com. However, the mix of land sold has skewed toward larger, premium parcels this year. One notable deal was a 70-acre Snake River parcel listed at $17.8 million – one of the highest-priced land sales on record kwjacksonhole.com. As a result, the average land sale price soared ~60% year-over-year (over $4.5 million per parcel) while the median land price actually fell ~14% to about $1.88 million kwjacksonhole.com. These statistics are highly volatile given the low sample size – just a couple of multi-million-dollar ranch sales can distort “averages”. The key takeaway is that prized large parcels still command enormous prices, whereas smaller lots (when they occasionally hit the market) may transact at lower prices if they have issues like lack of utilities or difficult access.

Land inventory remains very limited. Roughly 50–55 parcels were on the market mid-2025, virtually unchanged from before kwjacksonhole.com. On paper that might seem like an oversupply relative to sales, but in reality each parcel is unique – differences in location, views, zoning, and buildability mean buyers have few truly comparable choices. Many listings are remnants that have sat through multiple seasons, often because they’re “lots of last resort” (e.g. odd locations or significant building obstacles). Nonetheless, signs point to a pickup: there was a 167% jump in parcels under contract mid-2025 vs mid-2024 kwjacksonhole.com, suggesting more land deals will close in late 2025 as buyers plot future projects.

For anyone engaging in the land market, patience and due diligence are crucial. Sellers are typically in no rush – as one broker put it, “sellers tend to be patient, recognizing it takes the right buyer… on the other side, buyers are just as measured” kwjacksonhole.com. New county regulations add complexity: with the Natural Resources Overlay now countywide, a buyer must consider what environmental studies or mitigation a parcel might needjacksonholerealestatereport.com kwjacksonhole.com. Sellers, too, are advised to understand these rules to avoid over-promising development potential kwjacksonhole.com. In sum, Jackson’s land segment will continue to see few but impactful transactions – and those hoping to build their dream home from scratch must navigate a gauntlet of zoning, conservation, and cost challenges to succeed. The long-term value trajectory for land remains upward, simply because “they’re not making any more of it” in Jackson Hole’s exquisite but supply-constrained valley.

Commercial Real Estate: Limited Supply, New Projects & Investor Interest

Compared to the headline-grabbing residential sector, commercial real estate in Jackson Hole is a smaller, but still vital, part of the market. It encompasses retail and office spaces in the town of Jackson, hotels and lodging properties, and some light industrial or mixed-use areas. In 2025, the commercial market is marked by low vacancy, high demand for prime locations, and a cautious approach to new development influenced by town regulations and infrastructure limits.

Downtown Jackson’s commercial core – think shops, restaurants, galleries around the Town Square – has extremely limited turnover. Many properties are long-held by local owners or investors who recognize the enduring value of a Main-Street presence in a global tourist destination. As a result, when commercial buildings do trade or come up for lease, they see strong interest despite very high pricing. Rents for retail space on Cache or Broadway can reach premium levels given the tourist foot traffic (especially in summer). In 2024–25, vacancy in core retail space has been negligible; any pandemic-era downturn in storefront occupancy has fully reversed as tourism rebounded. Local businesses still face the challenge of those high rents, but Jackson’s economy – buoyed by affluent visitors and residents – has thus far sustained a vibrant downtown mix of boutiques, outfitters, restaurants, and art galleries.

One of the biggest stories in commercial real estate is new lodging development. Jackson Hole’s popularity puts pressure on accommodations, and investors are responding by planning new hotels and mixed-use hospitality projects:

  • A notable example is the Mogul Capital project at 335 North Cache, approved in June 2025. It will feature a 109-room hotel, 17 luxury condos, 16 deed-restricted workforce housing units, plus a restaurant and spa on a 2.46-acre site jacksonwy.gov jacksonwy.gov. This project required special approval (it went through multiple town council meetings) but ultimately reflects a compromise, including community housing, to gain support.
  • Another is the 50 S. Millward hotel development, a proposed 66,000 sq ft hotel with underground parking downtown jacksonwy.gov. As of mid-2025 it was in sketch plan review, with officials closely examining parking and traffic impacts jacksonwy.gov.
  • Up on Snow King Mountain (within town limits), plans for 60 new short-term rental condos and 12 affordable condos were approved in July 2025 jacksonwy.gov. These will expand lodging options at the Snow King Resort base, effectively adding more tourist capacity and local housing in one package.

The common thread is that commercial/hospitality projects are incorporating workforce housing and facing intense scrutiny before approval. Jackson’s Town Council and County Commissioners have made it clear that unchecked commercial growth is not the goal; projects must align with town character and mitigate impacts. In fact, the town enacted a temporary moratorium in 2024 on large commercial buildings (over 35,000 sq ft) in the downtown and commercial-residential zones jacksonwy.gov. This pause was specifically to allow time for re-writing Land Development Regulations (LDRs) regarding building size, height, and design – aiming to prevent an overwhelming scale of development that could strain infrastructure or alter the small-town feel jacksonwy.gov. Through late 2024 and 2025, the town has been updating design guidelines and zoning rules (with public input) as part of this process jacksonwy.gov jacksonwy.gov.

For commercial real estate investors, Jackson Hole presents a classic high barrier-to-entry market with significant upside for those who can navigate it. Cap rates are generally low (reflecting high property values and stable income streams), but the steady growth of tourism and wealth in the valley provides a strong long-term demand story. The “low regulation” reputation Wyoming has at the state level (business-friendly policies, no state income tax) is somewhat counterbalanced by local regulations in Teton County that are strict to preserve the environment and community character. Still, the mere fact that multiple new hotels and mixed-use projects are moving forward in 2025 shows investor confidence in the market. A mid-year analysis of the broader region noted that in Teton County, WY, even the commercial sector saw a modest rise in activity, hinting at renewed investor confidence after the uncertainty of the prior year mountainstandardrealty.com.

In terms of specific commercial metrics: While detailed lease rate or vacancy data isn’t publicly tracked in the same way as home sales, anecdotal evidence suggests:

  • Office Space: Jackson isn’t a big office market (most businesses are small or remote-work oriented). There’s limited Class A office space; many offices are above retail or in mixed-use buildings. Post-pandemic, demand for offices has been stable, mainly for professional services (law firms, finance, real estate companies). No major office construction is underway – any new office needs are often met by creative reuse of existing buildings.
  • Retail: Retail vacancy in central Jackson is very low (often effectively 0% on key blocks). New retail space will come mainly from mixed projects like the Browse ‘N Buy expansion – a planned two-story, 22,000 sq ft mixed-use building on N. Cache that will include an enlarged thrift store, meeting space, offices, and two apartments jacksonwy.gov. Such projects add a bit of commercial inventory but also community services.
  • Industrial/Service Commercial: The light industrial areas (like South Park business park or “Smith’s Plaza” area) have tight vacancy as well – they house contractors, auto services, etc., supporting the luxury homes and tourism economy. The town has limited land zoned for these uses, so rents have risen there too.

Looking ahead, commercial property owners can expect solid performance as Jackson Hole’s tourism continues booming year-round (summers for the national parks, winters for skiing). The key constraints will be workforce and housing: businesses struggle to staff retail/hospitality jobs because workers can’t find housing. This is why new commercial developments are being tied to providing employee housing (e.g. the Mogul project’s 16 workforce condos). There’s also discussion of limiting new short-term rental expansions in residential zones to protect housing for locals, which could indirectly affect tourism capacity. But overall, the commercial real estate outlook is stable: the town’s strict growth limits create a scenario of high demand and low supply for commercial spaces, which tends to support high values and full occupancy for the foreseeable future.

Vacation & Investment Properties: Returns in a Resort Paradise

Jackson Hole has long been a magnet for vacation home buyers and real estate investors, and that trend has only strengthened in recent years. In 2025, roughly one-third of property sales in Teton County are to out-of-state buyers looking for a combination of lifestyle and investment (this includes both luxury second homes and rental-oriented condos). Here’s what’s happening in the vacation/investment segment:

Short-Term Rental (STR) Market – Big Income Potential: Owning a rental property in Jackson Hole can be extremely lucrative. Data from 2025 shows Airbnb/short-term rentals in Jackson average about $70,800 in annual revenue per property, with an average daily rate (ADR) around $562 and occupancy around 45–50% airroi.com airroi.com. These figures are averages across 300+ active STR listings – top-performing properties do even better (the top 10% of rentals gross ~$15k per month in peak seasons) airroi.com. Such high income potential, coupled with Jackson’s international draw, makes rental homes a hot commodity. Investors often seek condos or houses within zones that legally allow nightly rentals (like Teton Village, the Aspens, or parts of downtown Jackson), since not all residential areas permit short-term renting. As noted, nearly half of all condo sales in early 2025 were units zoned for short-term rent – a clear indicator that investors are targeting these properties kwjacksonhole.com.

Importantly, Jackson’s STR regulations are relatively permissive but location-specific. The Town of Jackson and Teton County have designated “Lodging Overlay” zones where nightly rentals are allowed; outside of those, rentals under 30 days are generally prohibited in residential neighborhoods. This creates a two-tier market: properties inside the STR zones command a premium and see higher appreciation, whereas those outside serve purely as second homes or long-term rentals. As of 2025, local authorities have a “low regulation” stance compared to some resort towns (no strict caps on Airbnb licenses yet) airroi.com, but there is ongoing community conversation about balancing the tourist economy with neighborhood character. Investors should keep an eye on any future rule changes (for example, a potential requirement for STR owners to obtain special permits or pay additional taxes could arise if the housing squeeze worsens).

For now, the rental returns remain highly attractive. At a ~$1–1.5 million purchase price for a condo (the going rate for a 2-bedroom in the Aspens or similar), a $70k gross annual income equates to a ~4.5–5% gross yield, which is solid for a stable U.S. real estate asset. Savvy investors using professional property managers and dynamic pricing report even higher occupancy and revenues – especially those who offer luxury amenities or unique locations (ski-in proximity, mountain views, hot tubs, etc.). Vacation rental demand peaks in summer and winter; shoulder seasons (mud season in spring, late fall) are quieter airroi.com, so part of maximizing yield is managing those seasonal swings (offering monthly stays or discounts in off-peak months, for instance).

Second Homes and Lifestyle Investors: Not all investment-minded buyers plan to rent their properties. Jackson also attracts “lifestyle investors” – wealthy individuals who purchase homes as a store of value and personal retreat. These buyers often pay cash (over half of high-end sales are cash deals by some estimates) and are less sensitive to short-term market fluctuations. The rationale is that Jackson Hole real estate is a long-term hedge: the scenery and recreation will always draw affluent demand, and Wyoming’s tax benefits (no state income tax, low property tax rates relative to home value) offer a financial incentive jacksonhole-real-estate.com. Indeed, Jackson Hole saw a huge influx of such buyers during 2020–2021, and many of them are “locking up” their properties for the foreseeable future – they are not selling even as prices plateau. According to local experts, those who bought in the COVID era are holding on tight, which contributes to low inventory at the top end (i.e. you’re not seeing a flood of speculative flips; people tend to fall in love with their Jackson properties) jacksonhole-real-estate.com jacksonhole-real-estate.com. This dynamic supports values by keeping supply of prime houses limited.

Rental Market for Long-Term Tenants: Another facet is the long-term rental market, relevant for investment properties that aren’t nightly rented. Jackson’s workforce housing shortage means long-term rentals are in extremely high demand. If one buys a condo or home and rents it year-long to locals, they will find many takers. Rents are steep – a 2-bedroom in town can easily fetch $3,000+ per month (if you can even find one). While the ROI might be lower than nightly renting, some investors prefer the stability of an annual lease and avoiding tourism-related wear and tear. Additionally, owners of properties outside the STR zones really have no choice but to rent long-term if they want income. The valley’s major employers (hospital, school district, hospitality businesses) all report that lack of rental housing for employees is a critical issue, so any additions to the long-term rental pool are quickly absorbed.

One potential factor on the horizon: affordable housing developments (like those deed-restricted units coming online) could slightly ease rental demand in specific segments by 2026–2028. For example, if 100+ new workforce apartments are built via public-private partnerships, some pressure might come off the bottom end of the market. However, given current deficits, it’s likely that demand will continue to outstrip supply for regular rentals, keeping rents high. Thus, owning a rental property intended for local tenants should remain a sound investment, with the bonus of contributing to the community’s needs.

In summary, vacation and investment buyers in Jackson Hole are in a strong position. They benefit from the area’s dual identity: a playground for the rich (supporting property appreciation and luxury rental rates) and a tight-knit community with finite land (ensuring scarcity value). In 2025, competition among these buyers is fierce for certain properties (notably, well-priced condos/townhomes that can double as Airbnb rentals saw multiple offers). Going forward, the interplay of tourism trends, remote work (which enables more semi-local second home usage), and local housing policy will shape this segment. But if visitation numbers and wealthy migration are any indication, Jackson Hole will continue to be a profitable and desirable place to own a second home or investment property.

Factors Impacting the Market: Zoning, Infrastructure, and Environment

Jackson Hole’s real estate does not exist in a vacuum – it’s heavily influenced by local government policies, infrastructure capacity, and environmental considerations. In 2025 and beyond, several key factors in these realms are impacting buyers, sellers, and developers:

Land Use Regulations and Zoning Changes

Strict zoning and land-use regulations have long constrained Jackson Hole development, and 2024–2025 brought even tighter rules in some respects. A headline change was the update to Teton County’s Natural Resources Overlay (NRO) in early 2025, which now applies environmental review requirements to every property in the county – no matter the locationjacksonholerealestatereport.com. Previously, only designated sensitive areas triggered intense scrutiny. Under the new system, all development permits undergo a tiered environmental review: “Base Tier” properties get a basic checklist, “Mid Tier” need an administrative environmental analysis, and “High Tier” (most sensitive) require a full Environmental Analysis like in the old daysjacksonholerealestatereport.com. Roughly 25% of vacant parcels (generally those with critical habitat or steep slopes) will face the higher-tier reviewsjacksonholerealestatereport.comjacksonholerealestatereport.com. This change means more time, cost, and uncertainty for anyone looking to build – you might need wildlife-friendly fencing, limits on tree removal, or other mitigation to get approval. For sellers of raw land or older homes, it’s now prudent to front-load these considerations (e.g. get a zoning compliance verification) to assure buyers of what can be done on a property kwjacksonhole.com.

Another zoning storyline is the push-and-pull between development and conservation. The Northern South Park saga is a prime example: this 225-acre ranch parcel on Jackson’s south edge was long seen as the “only place left” for significant development. After years of debate, in March 2024 officials approved new zoning there to allow up to 1,437 homes (with a 70% affordable/workforce housing requirement) kwjacksonhole.com kwjacksonhole.com. By May 2025, the county OK’d the first master plan for a portion of this area, with conditions for wildlife corridors, parks, and phasing of the deed-restricted units buckrail.com buckrail.com. This is a landmark shift: it means over the next decade we’ll see a new neighborhood rise, including potentially 1000+ homes for local workers. For the market, this could slightly expand inventory (mostly in the affordable category) by 2027–2028, and it shows the political will to address housing shortages. However, it was not without resistance – conservation groups remain vigilant that development adheres to Jackson’s Comprehensive Plan, and wildlife protection is still paramount. As an example, in August 2025 the Town Council denied a rezoning request on a 6.5-acre hillside (the “Simon Pit”) that a developer wanted to turn from rural to high-density residential/commercial buckrail.com buckrail.com. Citing the landslide risk and habitat concerns (a new state geologic survey flagged it as high risk), officials opted to keep it low-density open space buckrail.com buckrail.com. This underscores that environmental factors can override housing needs on certain parcels.

Additionally, the Town of Jackson’s moratorium on large buildings (enacted June 2024) halted any new commercial projects over 35,000 sq ft downtown until the town updated its LDRs jacksonwy.gov. Throughout late 2024 and 2025, town planners and council members have been hashing out new design guidelines – likely outcomes include stricter height limits, stepped-back upper stories, and requirements for public benefits in big projects. The moratorium was scheduled to end in late 2024 after these updates passed jacksonwy.gov, and by fall 2025, developers will need to follow the revised rules. For buyers and sellers, these zoning nuances have indirect effects: they shape future supply. The tighter and slower the approval process, the more existing properties in prime locations become valuable (due to scarcity). Conversely, when a big new development like a hotel or condo complex is approved, it can add inventory that slightly tempers price growth in that segment. Keeping informed on Jackson/Teton County zoning changes is thus important for market participants, and many do via public meetings or local news – a very Jackson Hole blend of small-town civic engagement and high-dollar real estate.

Infrastructure and Civic Investments

Rapid growth in real estate and tourism is testing Jackson Hole’s infrastructure, but several major investments and projects are underway to bolster capacity and quality of life:

  • Transportation: Traffic congestion, especially along Highway 22 and into Jackson, has been a pain point. In response, a significant Stilson Transit Center and Park-n-Ride project broke ground in April 2025. This will create a transit hub with 400 parking spaces, covered bike parking, and a dedicated traffic signal at WY-390 (the Teton Village road) tetonbuildgrant.com. The idea is to let visitors and workers park outside town and take shuttle buses (START buses) into Jackson or the ski resort, easing car traffic. The county secured federal BUILD grant funding and even engaged Jackson Hole Mountain Resort (which donated land) to make this happen tetonbuildgrant.com tetonbuildgrant.com. By late 2025, construction progress was visible, with paving and structures going up tetonbuildgrant.com. This transit center is slated to be operational by 2026, which could noticeably reduce highway congestion and improve commute times – a plus for real estate in Wilson/Village areas and anyone worried about Jackson’s growing pains.
  • Roads and Bridges: The Wyoming DOT has been upgrading Highway 22, the key east-west artery. In 2025, they completed a new Snake River bridge on WY-22 and were finalizing paving and tie-ins dot.state.wy.us dot.state.wy.us. They also undertook major stabilization work on the “Teton Pass Big Fill Slide” – a landslide-prone section of road to Idaho – to ensure that route stays safe and open dot.state.wy.us dot.state.wy.us. These improvements mean better resiliency and capacity on routes that locals and luxury home-owners alike rely on. A smoother WYO-22 with a wider bridge, plus safer Teton Pass, make outlying areas (like Teton Valley, ID, or west bank WY neighborhoods) more accessible and thus attractive for development (to the extent allowed).
  • Airport: Jackson Hole Airport (JAC) is the gateway for many luxury buyers and tourists, and it’s receiving upgrades. In 2022 the airport closed for runway reconstruction, and in 2025 a series of projects continued, including an expanded de-icing pad and improved taxiways jacksonholeairport.com to handle winter operations more efficiently. They also demolished an old hangar to construct a new administration and FBO terminal building, aiming for a state-of-the-art, eco-friendly facility by 2026 jacksonholeairport.com jacksonholeairport.com. These investments will help the airport accommodate growth (passenger numbers hit records in recent years) without more noise or delays. For real estate, a well-functioning airport is crucial – it underpins the second-home market (quick access for owners) and tourism rental demand.
  • Public Facilities: The town and county, flush with recent tax revenues, have also invested in civic infrastructure. A new Teton County Justice Center was approved in 2025, to rebuild and expand the courthouse and jail downtown jacksonwy.gov jacksonwy.gov. There are also ongoing projects to upgrade utilities, bike paths (the Greater Yellowstone Trail connection through Wilson was completed in 2024 tetonbuildgrant.com tetonbuildgrant.com), and parks. While these may not directly drive property prices, they enhance the quality of life that attracts people to Jackson Hole.

In essence, infrastructure is gradually catching up to development. This is a positive trend for the real estate outlook: it means the valley can handle growth a bit better, which encourages both local residents to stay and newcomers to invest. However, infrastructure will likely remain a limiting factor – there’s only one major road in/out and finite capacity in the narrow Jackson valley. The community is attempting a balancing act: invest in smart infrastructure (e.g. transit, workforce housing) to alleviate pressure, but avoid over-building to the point of jeopardizing the very environment and character that make Jackson Hole special.

Environmental and Political Climate

Finally, environmental and political factors deeply influence the market. Teton County is renowned for its conservation ethic – 97% of its land is public (national parks, national forest, refuges) jacksonhole-real-estate.com, and even much of the private land is under conservation easements. This creates an inherent scarcity of developable land, effectively guaranteeing long-term real estate value appreciation as demand increases. Buyers are acutely aware of this: owning property in Jackson Hole is akin to owning a piece of a nearly finite supply. Political leaders and voters have consistently favored policies that protect open space and wildlife. For example, when upzoning is allowed (as with Northern South Park), it comes with heavy requirements for parks, wildlife corridors, and limited footprint buckrail.com buckrail.com. There is an active Jackson Hole Conservation Alliance and other groups that watchdog development proposals. Expect ongoing debates on issues like the Snow King Mountain expansion (which was contentious but is largely settled now), proposed gondolas or ski lifts, and any attempt to encroach on beloved landscapes.

One environmental factor with potential real estate impact is climate and natural risks. Jackson Hole’s climate is generally cold and snowy – great for skiing, though drought and wildfire in the broader West are concerns. The valley itself has some wildfire risk on its wooded hillsides, but large fires are less frequent here than in drier regions. Instead, flooding (from snowmelt or intense rain) and landslides are the natural hazards more likely to affect property. The 2023 Wyoming Geological Survey’s landslide susceptibility maps have prompted the county to be very cautious about approving development on steep slopes buckrail.com. As we saw with the Simon Pit denial, a heightened awareness of geological risk can stop a project in its tracks buckrail.com buckrail.com. Buyers looking at hillside lots or cliff-side homes now routinely consult these maps and may need engineering studies – which can be a deterrent or a price negotiation point.

On the political front, Wyoming’s state politics are quite pro-development and property-rights compared to Jackson’s local politics. There have been discussions at the state legislature about limiting local zoning authority to force communities to allow more housing (a trend seen in other states as well) wyofile.com. While nothing drastic has passed as of 2025, any such move could affect Jackson by possibly opening zoning slightly. However, given Jackson Hole’s clout and unique circumstances, it’s more likely the community will retain tight control. One recent example: the state considered legislation to reduce the threshold for neighbors to protest rezoning (making it easier to rezone for higher density), known as the Smith-Collins amendments wyofile.com. Conservation groups mobilized to ensure that environmental concerns stay central in any such changes jhalliance.org jhalliance.org. The outcome of these political currents will help shape how much new housing can be created without litigation or referendums.

To sum up, Jackson Hole’s environment and political ethos act as both a safeguard and a gatekeeper for real estate. They preserve the stunning setting and exclusivity that make the market so attractive (and expensive), but they also impose a limit on growth that can exacerbate supply shortages. Market participants, especially developers and investors, must navigate this carefully – often partnering with local organizations or contributing to community goals (like workforce housing or habitat protection) to gain support for their projects. For the typical buyer or seller, these factors manifest as the backdrop for the market’s long-term stability: one can be reasonably confident that there won’t be a sudden overbuilding or loss of natural beauty that undermines property values. On the contrary, the political commitment to conservation effectively ensures Jackson Hole real estate will remain a prized and pricey asset into the future.

Long-Term Outlook (2025–2028)

Looking ahead through 2028, Jackson Hole’s real estate market is positioned to remain strong, with some evolution towards balance. Key elements of the long-term outlook include:

  • Continued High Demand: The fundamental allure of Jackson Hole – world-class nature, recreation, and Wyoming’s tax benefits – isn’t going away. If anything, the rise of remote work and the ongoing wealth generation in the U.S. could bring more high-net-worth individuals to places like Jackson. Barring a major recession, expect demand to stay elevated, especially for luxury homes and any new inventory. The valley’s reputation as a safe haven for wealth (both financial and quality-of-life) was cemented in the pandemic and will likely persist. International buyers might also increase if travel fully normalizes.
  • Gradual Increase in Supply (Mostly Targeted): On the horizon, we will see new inventory trickling in from projects already approved. The Northern South Park development, for instance, could add over a thousand homes, but those will be built in phases likely through the later 2020s and largely sold under special programs to locals. Similarly, new condos at Snow King or future hotel-condo hybrids will add some market-rate units. The pipeline of 219 workforce housing units finishing by 2025 tetoncountywy.gov and more in subsequent years (some listed for 2026 in the Housing Supply Plan tetoncountywy.gov) will help retain essential workers and perhaps slightly cool the rental frenzy. However, these additions are relatively small in the grand scheme and mostly restricted-use or niche. They are unlikely to dent the pricing of open-market homes in a significant way – they address community needs more than create investor opportunities. In short, supply will grow, but no flood of new construction is coming due to the regulatory environment. The inventory of for-sale homes should therefore remain on the low side historically, even if it improves from the extreme lows of 2021–2022.
  • Price Trajectory: Moderate Growth, Not a Bubble: After the stabilization in 2023–2025, many experts anticipate that Jackson Hole home values will resume a modest upward climb annually through 2028. We might see something like low-to-mid single digit percentage appreciation per year on average, which is more sustainable than the 20–30% leaps of the early ’20s. High-end properties might even plateau or appreciate very slowly, especially as more luxury listings come online and buyers have more choices (the luxury inventory in mid-2025 was up 31% YOY kwjacksonhole.com, hinting at a bit of oversupply in the $8M+ range). That said, the floor on prices is quite firm – the limited land and wealthy ownership base makes a 2008-style crash very unlikely. In fact, Jackson Hole has historically been insulated: even during national downturns, volume might drop but prices tend to hold better than elsewhere. One potential scenario by 2028 is a slight shift towards a buyer’s market in some segments if interest rates remain high and more sellers decide to cash out at peak prices. The Sotheby’s Resort Report noted initial signs of a possible “buyer’s market for the first time in years” emerging jacksonhole-real-estate.com. This would manifest as longer listing times and more negotiations, rather than outright price drops. By 2028, we could see an equilibrium where buyers have more negotiating room and annual price gains are modest, but values are still at record or near-record levels in nominal terms.
  • Rental & Investment Outlook: The vacation rental market should stay robust through 2028. Tourism to Jackson Hole (and Grand Teton/Yellowstone) is expected to remain very strong; there’s also a trend of more affluent travelers seeking home rentals over hotels, which benefits STR owners. Unless the county enacts strict new STR limits (which is not currently on the docket, but community pressure will be watched), owning an Airbnb-type property in Jackson will continue to yield solid returns. Long-term rentals might ease slightly if those workforce housing projects pan out, but given job growth and zero signs of overbuilding, rents will likely keep rising slowly, supporting investment value. One X-factor is the broader economy: if a recession hits, vacation travel could dip, softening short-term rental income temporarily – yet even in recessions, truly wealthy segments often keep traveling, and Jackson Hole skews towards higher-end tourism.
  • Interest Rates and Financing: The interest rate environment by 2025 has cooled some middle-tier demand, but by 2026–2027 many forecasts expect rates to normalize downward as inflation is tamed. If mortgage rates fall back into, say, the 4–5% range by 2027, that could unleash a new wave of buyers who were sidelined. Jackson’s buyer pool is less rate-sensitive (recall around 79% of recent purchases have been cash deals in some periodsjacksonholerealestatereport.com), but the mid-market and local move-up buyers definitely are affected by financing. So, lower rates could boost activity and prices in condos and single-family homes under ~$3M as more folks compete. Conversely, if rates stay high or go higher, Jackson may lean even more on cash buyers/investors, and volume could slow while prices stagnate at the top end. Thus, the macro economy will play a role, but given the wealth in this market, the effect will be more on sales volume than on drastic price swings.
  • Community and Political Outlook: By 2028, some current initiatives (like Northern South Park, transit improvements, etc.) will have come to fruition, hopefully easing the growing pains Jackson has felt (traffic, worker shortages). The community is likely to continue grappling with how to welcome growth on its own terms. We might see additional rules such as stricter energy codes for new homes (to address sustainability) or even limits on mansion size (a conversation that surfaces periodically as 15,000 sq ft homes sprout in a region famous for natural beauty). Environmental changes, such as shorter winters or altered snowfall patterns due to climate change, could also subtly impact real estate – if ski seasons shorten, maybe summer becomes even more dominant, shifting rental patterns; or more wildfire smoke in summers (as seen occasionally) could affect desirability on the margins. These are speculative, but worth noting as long-term factors.

In all, the 2025–2028 outlook for Jackson Hole real estate is one of persistent strength with a dose of stabilization. This market is maturing from the frenzy into a phase where quality, not just quantity, wins the day: the best properties with justified pricing will change hands, new development will be thoughtful and slow, and values will likely trend upward at a healthy if not outrageous pace. For buyers, the coming years may offer better windows to purchase – more inventory than the drought of 2021, and possibly less competition on overpriced listings. For sellers, it’s still an excellent market to realize gains, but expectations should be managed (double-digit yearly appreciation is probably behind us for now). And for the community, the hope is that by 2028, Jackson Hole remains the extraordinary mountain town it is – exclusive but inclusive where it counts, developed but not overdeveloped, and continually balancing the economy with ecology. That balance, as ever, will define the real estate market’s ultimate trajectory.

Sources

Roman Bednarski