Maui Real Estate 2025–2030: Post-Wildfire Rebound, Rental Crackdowns & Investment Opportunities

Key Facts

Market Shift to Buyers: Maui’s housing inventory surged ~53% year-over-year (single-family supply up 75%, condos up ~70%), tipping the market toward buyers mauirealestateadvisors.com. Homes now sit on market ~128 days and condos ~146 days on average as of mid-2025 mauirealestateadvisors.com.
Home Prices High but Steady: The median single-family home price hovers around $1.3 million in 2025 civilbeat.org, roughly flat from last year. Average sale prices even inched up (~$1.90M in Q2 2025 vs $1.80M in 2024) living-maui.com, reflecting Maui’s persistent desirability.
Condo Prices and Sales Slump: Condo sales have plummeted over 40% year-on-year mauirealestateadvisors.com. Median condo prices fell sharply to about $700,000 (–24.5% YoY as of April 2025) mauirealestateadvisors.com due to oversupply and regulatory fears, creating bargaining power for buyers.
Short-Term Rentals Being Phased Out: Maui County is enacting a phase-out of vacation rentals in apartment-zoned condos by 2028 (West Maui) and 2030 (rest of island) fastcompany.com. This could return ~6,100 units to local housing use (a 13% supply boost) fastcompany.com but is projected to drop condo values 20–40% and cut tourism spending by 15% fastcompany.com.
Wildfire Aftermath: The August 2023 Lahaina wildfires destroyed roughly 2,200 structures and displaced over 12,000 residents civilbeat.org civilbeat.org. Rebuilding Lahaina is now a dominant factor in the market, straining construction labor and permitting hawaiipublicradio.org. Government is exploring a moratorium on Lahaina land sales to prevent outsider “land grabs” and keep land in local hands civilbeat.org.
Major Developments in Pipeline: New housing projects are moving forward. For example, the Honuaʻula master-planned community in South Maui (Wailea 670) will add 1,150 homes (25% affordable/workforce units) over the coming years mauinow.com mauinow.com. In Central Maui, a fast-track Kahului civic center mixed-use project will bring additional affordable housing mauinow.com.
Tourism & Commercial Real Estate: West Maui resorts have largely reopened post-fire, but 2024 tourism was subdued and short-term rental occupancy fell as visitors stayed away during recovery civilbeat.org. Hotel development is picking up: Hilton is opening a new 136-room Hampton Inn near Kahului in 2025 and converting the Maui Seaside Hotel into a boutique Hilton by 2026 beatofhawaii.com beatofhawaii.com. Meanwhile, large commercial properties (e.g. a 20-acre shopping center in Kahului) are for sale, indicating opportunity in a buyer’s market for commercial land hawaiipublicradio.org.
Policy and Tax Updates: Maui County has raised property tax rates on non-owner and short-term rental properties (now the highest tier at $12.50–$15.00 per $1,000 of value) to relieve local homeowners civilbeat.org. Hawaii law now mandates disclosure of sea-level rise risks in real estate sales civilbeat.org, and burned properties received temporary tax relief after the fires civilbeat.org. Officials are also tightening building codes and planning for climate resilience (e.g. higher building elevation standards in flood zones) to address long-term risks civilbeat.org mauinow.com.
Outlook to 2030: By the end of the decade, Maui’s housing stock will be reshaped by policy and recovery. Phasing out vacation rentals could free up thousands of homes for locals fastcompany.com, roughly equal to a decade’s worth of new construction at past building rates fastcompany.com. Combined with new projects (and assuming infrastructure challenges can be managed fastcompany.com), these measures aim to close Maui’s housing deficit. However, the economy may rebalance with ~25% fewer visitor accommodations fastcompany.com, potentially tempering real estate demand in resort areas. Climate adaptation and resilient rebuilding – from Lahaina’s new neighborhoods to stricter coastal building guidelines – will be critical as Maui’s real estate market adapts to a post-wildfire, climate-conscious future.

1. Residential Market Trends (2025)

Maui’s residential real estate market in 2025 has entered a cooler phase compared to the frenzied boom of 2021–2022. Home prices remain historically high, but sales volume and speed have declined amid higher interest rates and affordability challenges. The median sale price for a single-family home is about $1.3 million civilbeat.org (with upscale areas skewing this average upward). Year-to-date data show average single-family prices even up slightly (~5% YoY) despite the slower market living-maui.com. This reflects Maui’s limited supply and persistent desirability – even as fewer buyers can afford to bid prices higher.

Inventory is finally building up. After years of chronic shortage, listings have risen markedly. By mid-2025 Maui’s total for-sale inventory was ~30% higher than a year prior for homes mauirealestate.com – and over 50% higher when combining homes and condos mauirealestateadvisors.com. New listings are coming on, while buyer demand softened, leading to months of inventory not seen since the last buyer’s market. For example, in May 2025 the absorption rate reached ~7.9 months for single-family homes (firmly a buyer’s market) blog.emauirealestate.com.

Properties are taking longer to sell on average. Single-family homes now sit a median of roughly 4+ months on market, and condos nearly 5 months, before finding a buyer mauirealestateadvisors.com. Days-on-market jumped ~9% for homes and over 40% for condos in Q2 2025 vs. a year prior living-maui.com. This indicates buyers are more deliberate and have more choices, a stark change from the rapid turnarounds of 2022. Well-priced, move-in-ready homes still attract interest (and occasionally multiple offers), but overpriced or outdated listings often languish without price cuts mauirealestate.com mauirealestate.com. Negotiation has returned: buyers are successfully bidding under asking in many cases, and sellers are making more concessions mauirealestate.com.

Sales volume has pulled back significantly, constrained by both limited qualified buyers and low inventory in certain segments. Through the first half of 2025, single-family home sales were down ~15% year-on-year, and condo sales down ~29% mauirealestateadvisors.com. Monthly stats show improvement in mid-2025 versus the depressed post-fire market of late 2023 – e.g. July 2025 home sales were up 16% from July 2024 mauirealestate.com – but both sectors remain far below pre-pandemic norms mauirealestate.com. High mortgage rates (hovering ~6–7% in 2024–25) and economic uncertainty have shrunk the buyer pool, especially among local residents.

Crucially, prices have not collapsed despite the slower sales. Maui’s market is highly segmented, and limited supply keeps a floor under values. Sellers who don’t get their hoped-for price are often pulling listings rather than selling at a steep discount. As one local agent noted, many 2021–2022 peak sales look like outliers now, and ambitious sellers are adjusting down to meet the market mauirealestate.com mauirealestate.com. Some areas (like parts of Kīhei) have seen modest price declines in 2023–24 where inventory is higher and sellers must compete mauirealestate.com. But overall, median and average prices for homes have stayed flat to slightly up year-over-year civilbeat.org living-maui.com. This suggests that while demand is down, supply is still so constrained – or owned by sellers with enough equity – that fire-sale pricing is rare.

Condominium vs. single-family dynamics: The condo sector has felt more downward pressure than the single-family home market. In 2024 and into 2025, condo prices underwent a noticeable correction, with the median condo price dropping from the high-$900Ks to the low-$700Ks mauirealestateadvisors.com. Condo inventory jumped even more (30%+ year-on-year by mid-2025) than single-family inventory living-maui.com. Several factors hit condos especially hard: higher maintenance fees (HOA dues and assessments) amid inflation, rising insurance costs, and a post-pandemic buyer preference for standalone homes over shared buildings mauirealestate.com. Additionally, Maui’s looming short-term rental rule changes (discussed below) have cast a cloud over many condos’ rental income potential, dampening investor demand mauirealestate.com mauirealestateadvisors.com. As a result, condos island-wide have seen more price cuts and longer marketing times. By contrast, the single-family segment – particularly in desirable neighborhoods – has been more resilient, buoyed by scarcity of buildable land and high-wealth buyers who can purchase even at today’s elevated prices.

Luxury market: One bright spot is the luxury tier. High-end properties in Wailea, Mākena, Kapalua, and Kīhei’s beachfront have continued to transact at strong price points. Market reports note that South Maui (Wailea/Kīhei) remains active with “strong sales volume” in both luxury homes and condos mauirealestateadvisors.com. Wealthy buyers, often cash-rich, are less deterred by interest rates or economic swings. In 2025 we’ve seen oceanfront estates and upscale condos still commanding record prices, especially if they are turnkey or newly renovated. The luxury second-home market thus “leads” the recovery, even as mid-market and starter inventory stagnates. This trend keeps overall averages high and underscores Maui’s bifurcated market: local families struggle with affordability, while upscale areas see continued out-of-state investment and second-home demand.

Going forward, Maui’s residential market is expected to remain pricey but negotiable. Buyers through 2025 can take advantage of the increased supply and softer competition to negotiate better deals – a change from the bidding wars of a few years ago mauirealestate.com. Sellers, on the other hand, face a reality check: to get deals done now, pricing realistically and even undercutting competing listings may be necessary, especially for condos or homes with dated condition mauirealestate.com. Overall, the island has shifted from an extreme seller’s market to a more balanced or buyer-favored market in 2025. How long this lasts will depend on broader economic conditions (interest rate trends, a possible recession) and local factors like the pace of rebuilding lost homes.

2. Vacation and Rental Property Outlook (Short-Term Rentals)

The vacation rental sector in Maui is undergoing a seismic change. In response to a housing affordability crisis worsened by the 2023 fires, Maui County is cracking down on short-term vacation rentals in a bid to return housing stock to local residents. This comes amid community concerns about overtourism and residential neighborhoods being “hollowed out” by vacation rentals fastcompany.com.

Short-Term Rental Phase-Out (Bill 9):

Maui County Council has advanced Bill 9 (2025), landmark legislation that phases out transient vacation rentals in apartment-zoned properties. Under this plan, condo units in apartment zoning (which historically have been allowed to rent to tourists on Airbnb/VRBO if their HOA permits) will gradually lose the right to do short-term rentals. The phase-out timeline currently would ban vacation rentals in West Maui (Lahaina/Kā‘anapali region) by January 1, 2029 and across the rest of Maui by January 1, 2031 mauirealestate.com mauirealestate.com. (Earlier versions of the bill even proposed a 2026 cutoff civilbeat.org, but the timeline was extended amid debate civilbeat.org.)

This legislation targets an estimated 7,000 condo units – roughly half of Maui’s short-term rental inventory – that are in apartment-zoned areas civilbeat.org civilbeat.org. Currently, vacation rentals make up about 21% of all housing units in Maui County fastcompany.com. Essentially, one in five homes on Maui is being used for short-term tourists. The bill aims to flip a large portion of those into long-term rentals or owner-occupied housing for residents over the next 5–6 years.

Rationale: The push to eliminate many vacation rentals gained momentum after the Lahaina wildfire disaster. With over 12,000 residents suddenly displaced by the fires civilbeat.org, the housing shortage became even more acute. Mayor Richard Bissen championed Bill 9 as a “bold step” to prioritize housing for locals civilbeat.org civilbeat.org. Community activists – including wildfire survivors – have been vocal that Maui’s housing stock shouldn’t be predominantly visitor lodging while locals live in shelters or leave the island. The sentiment echoes global tourist destinations like Barcelona and Venice that are fighting back against overtourism’s impact on housing fastcompany.com fastcompany.com.

Impacts: This impending change has already sent shockwaves through the Maui real estate market, particularly for condos:

Investor Sentiment: Uncertainty over Bill 9’s passage caused many would-be buyers of Maui condos to pause. Condo owners in affected buildings are watching nervously – some have even pulled their listings off the market until there’s clarity mauirealestate.com mauirealestate.com. The prospect of losing lucrative short-term rental income makes these units far less attractive to investors, putting downward pressure on condo values. Indeed, realtors report that condos likely to be impacted by the ban are seeing the sharpest price drops as sellers try to unload them before the phase-out timeline draws closer mauirealestate.com mauirealestate.com. This is a key factor in the ~25% median condo price decline noted in 2024–25 mauirealestateadvisors.com.
Market Predictions: A University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) study in March 2025 evaluated the consequences of the short-term rental elimination. It predicted roughly 6,100 units could return to Maui’s long-term housing supply (an increase of ~13% in available housing) fastcompany.com. Such a conversion would be equivalent to 10 years of construction at Maui’s normal building pace (only ~600 new units are built per year) fastcompany.com. However, the same study warned of steep economic costs: potentially 20–40% drops in condo property values, a 15% reduction in visitor spending, and a 4% contraction in Maui’s GDP due to fewer accommodations for tourists fastcompany.com. About a quarter of the island’s visitor lodging could vanish when these rentals exit the market fastcompany.com.
Legal Challenges: Many owners are gearing up to fight the phase-out in court. Similar measures in Honolulu were struck down in 2022 (when Oʻahu tried to impose a 90-day minimum stay for rentals) due to legal challenges over property rights mauinow.com mauinow.com. Learning from that, the Hawaiʻi legislature in 2024 explicitly gave counties power to regulate short-term rentals mauinow.com. Maui officials assert Bill 9 is legally sound mauinow.com, but organizations like the Hawaiʻi Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance are likely to sue, claiming an unconstitutional “taking” without compensation mauinow.com mauinow.com. As of late 2025, lawsuits are expected if/when the full Council approves the bill mauinow.com.
Exceptions & Rezoning: Not all vacation condos are affected – units in hotel/resort-zoned areas (like certain resort districts) can continue short-term renting. Some condo owners are already exploring rezoning from “Apartment” to “Hotel/Resort” to legally keep operating vacation rentals mauirealestateadvisors.com. The Council is considering pathways for this in limited cases, but it’s a complex, lengthy process. Additionally, licensed B&Bs and short-term rental homes (STRH) with permits in residential areas are a separate category and are not directly impacted by Bill 9, though they face their own permit caps and regulations.

In the short term, this regulatory cloud has made Maui’s vacation rental outlook shaky. Rental operators face uncertainty about how long they can continue doing business. Some have reportedly started converting units to 6-12 month leases for local tenants or selling their condos, especially in places like Kihei and Maʻalaea where a high percentage of owners live out-of-state civilbeat.org civilbeat.org. There is also concern for the local economy: cleaners, property managers, and maintenance vendors who service vacation rentals fear losing work fastcompany.com. Maui’s officials acknowledge a likely hit to county tax revenue (an estimated $61 million annual decline in property and TAT taxes) but believe the budget can withstand it and that keeping housing for locals is worth the tradeoff fastcompany.com.

Tourism Rental Demand:

Even before Bill 9 becomes law, demand for vacation rentals in 2024–25 has been uneven. In late 2023, after the Lahaina fires, Maui saw a sharp drop in visitors. Out of respect and practical concerns, tourism to West Maui virtually stopped for two months, and even after reopening, visitor numbers were down. Many tourists rebooked to other islands or postponed trips. As a result, occupancy for short-term rentals fell in the latter half of 2023. By mid-2024, tourism started recovering, but vacationers showed preference for hotels and resort areas; the more remote or residential-area Airbnbs saw slower rebound as the island delicately balanced inviting tourists back while recovering.

Going into 2025, industry voices said “we are in for a rough year” for Maui tourism, citing fewer advance bookings and a lingering perception that Maui is off-limits or still in crisis civilbeat.org. This means many rental hosts have cut rates to attract guests. The silver lining: some previously tourist-only units were offered to displaced locals under special programs or at discounted long-term rates after the fires. There has been a community push to encourage owners to rent to residents, at least temporarily, which foreshadowed the more permanent push of Bill 9.

Short-Term Rental Regulations (beyond Bill 9): Maui already had strict rules for vacation rentals prior to this bill. Short-term rentals (<180 days) outside of resort zones generally require permits and are capped in number. The county periodically closes loopholes; for example, “ministay” rentals (over 30 days but serially rented) have been scrutinized. In 2022, O‘ahu’s 90-day minimum law (though stalled in court initially) signaled Hawaii’s overall direction of clamping down on quasi-hotel operations in residential areas mauinow.com. Maui’s new law specifically closes the condo loophole where apartment-zoned condos behaved like hotels. The Council also formed a Temporary Investigative Group in 2025 to explore broader vacation rental policies (from enforcement to possible relief valve solutions) mauinow.com. We might see new regulations for platforms (Airbnb, VRBO) and stricter enforcement against illegal rentals in coming years, to ensure the intent of the phase-out is achieved.

Outlook: For investors and second-home owners, Maui’s vacation rental outlook is mixed. In the near term, rental yields are under pressure: occupancy is down from record highs, and the specter of legal changes adds risk. Many investors are adopting a “wait-and-see” stance or redirecting their Hawaii investment to hotel-zoned condos (which are exempt from the ban) mauirealestate.com. By 2028–2030, assuming the phase-out proceeds, Maui will have far fewer Airbnbs. This could mean opportunity for those who do manage to legally operate a vacation rental – with less competition, their occupancy and rates could soar. Conversely, many formerly rentable condos will be sold or repurposed; an optimistic scenario is that a significant number of them become attainable long-term rentals for local families, easing the rental housing crunch.

From a big-picture perspective, Maui is attempting a difficult balancing act: right-sizing tourism to not displace locals, without strangling the island’s economic lifeblood. The outcome will heavily influence real estate: a reduced tourism footprint might moderate future property demand in resort areas, but improving local quality of life could make Maui more sustainable and attractive in the long run. For now, anyone buying a condo in Maui for rental income should carefully check zoning and regulations – the difference between a hotel-zoned unit and an apartment-zoned one is literally the difference between a legal vacation business or none at all by 2030.

3. Commercial Property Developments

Maui’s commercial real estate sector is at an inflection point in 2025, shaped by both cyclical market forces and extraordinary events like the Lahaina wildfire. The island’s commercial landscape – from retail centers and office space to hotels and industrial parks – is seeing pockets of opportunity even as broader headwinds emerge.

Central Maui Growth and Listings:

One notable trend is a rise in commercial listings and interest in Central Maui (Kahului/Wailuku). With West Maui’s economy disrupted by the 2023 fires, attention has shifted to the island’s central business areas. In mid-2025, local brokers reported more commercial properties hitting the market in Kahului than in years past hawaiipublicradio.org. For example, the landmark Kahului Shopping Center (a 20-acre site owned by Alexander & Baldwin, including a shopping complex, office building, and fast-food pad) was put up for sale – a rare offering of a large developable parcel in Kahului’s urban core hawaiipublicradio.org. There’s also land available in the Maui Business Park (light industrial lots near the airport). This increase in supply has created something of a buyer’s market for commercial land/buildings in Central Maui hawaiipublicradio.org. Investors are showing renewed interest, sensing that Kahului (the island’s retail and logistics hub) will grow as the population shifts and as infrastructure investments are made.

Additionally, Maui’s County government has been facilitating projects to revitalize central areas. The Maui County Council in 2025 approved a fast-track affordable housing and mixed-use project at the old Kahului Civic Center site mauinow.com. Called Kaiahale ‘o Kahiluhilu, this development will bring new housing alongside commercial spaces, creating a pedestrian-friendly town center. Such projects not only address housing needs but also boost demand for local retail and services in Kahului.

Hotel & Resort Development:

The hospitality sector – a crucial part of Maui’s commercial real estate – is in a rebuilding and expansion mode simultaneously. On one hand, West Maui’s resorts suffered a huge blow from the wildfires: several hotels in Lahaina were destroyed or damaged, and many others (in Kāʻanapali, Kapalua, etc.) saw months of closure or low occupancy after the disaster. By 2024, most major West Maui resorts reopened (Kāʻanapali’s hotels, Napili/Kapalua resorts, etc.), but visitor numbers remained below normal as Maui carefully managed the return of tourism beatofhawaii.com. Some large resorts accommodated fire evacuees and relief workers at the expense of tourist bookings, showcasing corporate responsibility but also affecting revenue civilbeat.org.

Despite these challenges, hotel developers are bullish on Maui’s long-term appeal. Hilton, for example, is doubling down on Maui with two new properties:

A new Hampton Inn & Suites Maui North Shore in Kahului, slated to open in May 2025, bringing 136 mid-range hotel rooms near the airport beatofhawaii.com beatofhawaii.com. This is on the site of an old local hotel, representing an upgrade to more branded inventory.
A major renovation and rebranding of the Maui Seaside Hotel (a beloved local budget hotel in Kahului) into a Hilton Tapestry Collection boutique hotel by 2026 beatofhawaii.com beatofhawaii.com. This will significantly raise the property’s price point and target a more upscale visitor, illustrating how global hotel chains are reshaping formerly independent Hawaii hotels.

These developments indicate that outside investors foresee Maui tourism recovering and perhaps even see an opening: as many small vacation rentals get phased out, hotels expect to pick up the slack in accommodating visitors beatofhawaii.com beatofhawaii.com. The new Hampton Inn, for instance, aims to serve “affordable” travelers (rooms around $500/night, which passes for mid-scale in Maui) beatofhawaii.com. The corporate bet is that Maui’s visitor demand will remain strong, and with fewer legal Airbnbs, traditional hotels can capture more market share. Some locals are wary, noting that this could exacerbate over-tourism and strain resources, but it’s a trend to watch: larger hospitality companies expanding while mom-and-pop rentals contract.

Elsewhere on island, existing luxury resorts have been reinvesting. The Grand Wailea in Wailea completed a large-scale renovation in 2024, updating rooms and amenities to maintain its 5-star appeal grandwailea.com thehawaiivacationguide.com. Other resorts like the Andaz Maui also underwent recent refreshes travelagewest.com. This ongoing reinvestment keeps Maui’s resort product competitive in the global market. No entirely new mega-resort has broken ground recently (in part due to scarce shoreline sites and community opposition to new large developments), but timeshare and condo-hotel projects have added inventory – e.g. Maui Bay Villas by Hilton Grand Vacations opened its new timeshare resort in Kīhei in 2022, adding hundreds of units.

Retail & Office:

Maui’s retail sector is adapting to both e-commerce trends and the relocation of consumer spending. Lahaina’s Front Street – once a bustling retail/restaurant strip – was largely destroyed in the fires. This wiped out dozens of small businesses and also significant retail square footage. Plans to rebuild Lahaina’s commercial district are underway (with committees and the Maui Recovers agency formulating a comprehensive plan mauirecovers.org), but it will take years. In the meantime, Central Maui retail centers have seen upticks in activity as West Maui residents shop in Kahului, and as relief funds and construction workers stimulate the local economy. Malls like Queen Ka‘ahumanu Center in Kahului likely saw higher foot traffic post-fire from displaced West Side residents.

There are also proposals to increase mixed-use development (combining retail/office with housing) to create more walkable communities – the Kahului civic center project mentioned is one example, and similar ideas are floated for Kihei and Wailuku.

Office space on Maui is a smaller segment (the island doesn’t have high rises; most offices are low-rise buildings). The remote work trend led some businesses to downsize physical offices, but others in Maui have maintained space. One factor in late 2023–2024 was the influx of government and aid agencies needing temporary offices for wildfire recovery coordination, which actually absorbed some vacant office space in Wailuku. Over the longer term, demand for office may remain modest, with any growth tied to local professional services and government rather than large corporate expansions.

Industrial & Infrastructure:

Industrial real estate (warehouses, baseyards) remains in tight supply, especially around the harbor and airport. Maui’s push for sustainability (like local food production and renewable energy projects) could spur future industrial development. For instance, if more solar farms or battery storage facilities are built, or construction staging areas for Lahaina rebuild, those require industrial land. Maui’s only deepwater port at Kahului means warehousing near Kahului retains strong value.

Infrastructure upgrades also intersect with real estate. The county’s capital plans to expand highways (like widening the Piʻilani Hwy in South Maui for Honuaʻula project) mauinow.com or improve water and sewer systems will open up new areas for development. Conversely, infrastructure constraints (water in particular) are a limiting factor often cited by officials – Mayor Bissen noted there are “limits to how much new housing can be built” given water supply and sewer capacity issues fastcompany.com. For example, Upcountry Maui has long had a water meter waitlist, stalling development there. Addressing these bottlenecks through new wells, wastewater treatment expansion, etc., is key to enabling more commercial and residential projects by 2030.

Outlook:

In summary, commercial real estate on Maui in the coming years will be defined by rebuilding and rebalancing:

Lahaina Rebuilding: The reconstruction of Lahaina’s commercial core is both a challenge and an opportunity. It’s a challenge due to the historic nature of Lahaina (ensuring any new buildings honor the town’s heritage and meet modern codes) and the sheer scale of work. But it’s an opportunity to build a more resilient, sustainable town – potentially with updated infrastructure (burying power lines, smarter urban design) and a mix of businesses that serve locals as well as tourists. The rebuild will generate significant construction activity and, once completed, new commercial inventory (shops, restaurants, offices) likely by the late 2020s.
Central/South Maui Development: With West Maui’s growth constrained in the short term, Central and South Maui will likely see the bulk of new development. We already observe major housing projects (Honuaʻula in South Maui) that will include some commercial components (schools, small retail for the new community). There’s also talk of revitalizing Wailuku’s downtown with more arts, dining, and apartments (the Wailuku civic hub project has been underway). All this points to a diversification of commercial centers beyond just Lahaina/Kāʻanapali.
Investor Interest: The fact that big players like Hilton and A&B are repositioning assets on Maui suggests that investor confidence in Maui’s economy remains solid. Cap rates for Hawaii commercial properties are generally low (signaling high prices), but any softness in the market (e.g., due to higher interest rates) might allow savvy investors to acquire Maui commercial assets that rarely come up for sale. The current buyer’s market in some segments might not last if tourism bounces back strongly.

Overall, Maui’s commercial real estate is poised for transformational development. By 2030, expect a new Lahaina emerging from the ashes, a more robust Kahului/Wailuku urban center, and an updated roster of hotels and businesses catering to a right-sized tourism industry. The key will be ensuring these developments align with Maui’s community needs and climate realities, a theme that now underpins all real estate sectors on the island.

4. Investment and Development Opportunities

Despite recent adversities, Maui offers a range of investment and development opportunities for those looking ahead. The coming years will see significant public and private investment in housing, infrastructure, and community rebuilding – opening doors for investors, developers, and entrepreneurs who can navigate Maui’s unique market and regulations.

Residential Development & Redevelopment:

With Maui’s housing shortage at crisis levels, virtually any project that adds housing – especially affordable or workforce housing – is in high demand. The county and state governments are actively encouraging and fast-tracking such developments. For instance, the Honuaʻula master-planned community in South Maui (Wailea area) was recently given the green light after decades of debate mauinow.com. This 670-acre project will roll out 1,150 homes (mix of luxury and 288 deed-restricted affordable units) over the next decade mauinow.com mauinow.com. For developers, getting entitlements in place for large projects like this can be arduous, but once approved, Maui’s high prices make them financially attractive. Honuaʻula’s approval signals that Maui is willing to work with developers on big projects if they address local housing needs (though not without controversy over the scale of affordable units mauinow.com).

Another area of opportunity is infill development and redevelopment in central neighborhoods. Maui’s small towns (Wailuku, Kahului, Makawao, etc.) have many older buildings and under-utilized lots. The county has shown willingness to use tools like the 201H fast-track process and up-zoning to allow taller mixed-use buildings in town centers. An example is the Wailuku civic complex plan (for parking, civic offices, and possibly housing) and private projects adding lofts/apartments above shops in Wailuku. Small-scale developers focusing on duplexes, ohana units (ADUs), and infill housing can also find opportunities due to recent ordinance changes easing the creation of accessory dwellings for locals.

Crucially, the rebuilding of Lahaina will be a massive development undertaking. There will be opportunities for builders and investors to participate in constructing new homes and commercial spaces there (subject to whatever rebuilding plan is finalized). Federal and state funds are flowing in for infrastructure and housing in Lahaina, which could include public-private partnerships. However, investors need to be mindful: officials have vowed to prevent outside speculators from exploiting the situation civilbeat.org. Governor Green even suggested a moratorium on sales of fire-damaged properties pbs.org, and legislation might give nonprofits or the state first crack at buying certain lands for community land trusts. So, while there will be contracts and projects to be had in Lahaina, pure land speculation is being discouraged. A more community-minded investment – e.g. partnering with local families or nonprofits to rebuild homes – might be the model that succeeds there.

Conversion and Adaptive Reuse:

The shift in the vacation rental market creates some novel opportunities. Thousands of condo units that were once mini hotels will need a new purpose by 2030. Investors with a creative eye could look at adaptive reuse or repositioning of these properties. For example, an older vacation condo complex might be purchased and converted into long-term rental apartments, workforce housing, or even semi-hotels for traveling nurses and remote workers. Maui’s planning department has floated ideas like allowing some apartment-zoned complexes to rezone to resort (to remain vacation rentals) if they meet certain criteria mauirealestateadvisors.com – an opportunity for condo associations to invest in that process. Alternatively, some complexes might explore being converted to assisted living or senior housing, given Hawaii’s aging population. With 94% of Maui’s apartment-zone STR owners living off-island fastcompany.com, many may opt to sell; this could lead to relatively more affordable condo prices in the next few years, a window for local buyers or mission-driven investors to acquire units for long-term rental portfolios.

Green Building and Climate Resilience:

Another growth area is climate-resilient development. After the fires, there is strong interest in rebuilding smarter. Developers who incorporate fire-resistant materials, solar + battery systems, rainwater catchment, and other resilient design features will likely have an edge and possibly access to grants or insurance incentives. There is talk of updating building codes to mandate hardening of homes against wildfires (e.g., fire breaks, non-combustible roofing) in high-risk zones reddit.com. Similarly, along the coasts, sea-level rise is a concern. Hawaii law already requires sellers to disclose if a property lies in the 3.2-foot sea-level-rise inundation zone civilbeat.org. Researchers from UH are calling for new elevation standards for coastal construction (building higher or set back further) mauinow.com mauinow.com. This presages future regulations, but also opportunities for specialists in flood-proofing, shoreline setback planning, and elevated foundation construction.

For instance, a savvy investor might focus on homes in low-lying areas and proactively elevate or flood-proof them, turning vulnerability into a selling point for a future buyer who values that the home is “climate-ready.” There may also be state/federal funds available for such retrofits (FEMA grants, etc.). As climate awareness grows, off-grid and sustainable homes could command a premium – evidenced by a Maui off-grid home winning an architectural award for energy-efficient design in 2025 mauinow.com. Building to LEED standards or incorporating water and energy self-sufficiency isn’t just altruism; it can be a market differentiator in Maui’s eco-conscious culture.

Infrastructure and Commercial Projects:

Maui’s government is investing in infrastructure upgrades island-wide, and those projects often have associated real estate components. For example, road widenings in South Maui (for Honuaʻula) and Upcountry will improve access and potentially increase property values in those areas once completed mauinow.com. Water source development (like drilling new wells or expanding reservoirs) could unlock more lots for subdivision. Investors might identify land that is currently cheap due to lacking water meter allocations, betting that the county will bring water infrastructure within the decade.

On the commercial side, as noted earlier, Central Maui has a buyers’ market moment. Someone could acquire the Kahului Shopping Center or other commercial assets at a relative value, with the intent to redevelop or wait for an upswing. Wailuku’s revitalization also offers small-scale investment chances: renovating an old building into modern offices or a cafe, for instance. The Maui Research & Technology Park in Kihei (a business park zone) has underdeveloped parcels – there’s potential for tech-oriented campus development or even film production facilities given Hawaii’s push for creative industry (just speculative ideas).

Another opportunity: medical and wellness real estate. Maui’s population is growing older, and healthcare needs are increasing (plus serving tourists). Developing senior living facilities, clinics, or rehabilitation centers can fill local needs. Some investors are looking at places like Kula Hospital’s expansion or Maui Memorial’s capacity and noting room for urgent care centers or specialty medical office buildings.

Important Considerations:

While opportunities abound, Maui’s market has high barriers to entry. Land and construction costs are among the highest in the nation. Regulatory processes can be lengthy and community opposition to development is common (NIMBYism is strong, as residents fiercely protect the island’s character and environment). Any new development must navigate Hawaii’s environmental laws, cultural heritage (archaeological and Native Hawaiian considerations), and often, organized community groups. Engaging early with the community and offering genuine benefits (affordable housing, preserving open space, etc.) is key to winning support.

Investors should also keep an eye on interest rates and the broader economy. A continued high-rate environment could suppress real estate values and make financing projects tough. Conversely, if rates drop by 2026 or so, we might see another surge of buyer activity, and today’s buyer’s market could swing back to a seller’s market relatively quickly given Maui’s finite land.

In summary, Maui’s post-2023 landscape, though scarred by tragedy, is fertile ground for purposeful investment: rebuilding homes for locals, rethinking tourism’s footprint, and fortifying the island for the future. Those investments that align with Maui’s needs – housing, resilience, sustainability – are likely to find support and solid returns. By 2030, the island will likely look different: ideally more housing for residents, modernized infrastructure, and a balanced economy. Investors who contribute to these goals stand to benefit alongside the community.

5. Regional Breakdowns

Maui’s real estate markets vary widely by region – each area of the island has its own trends, inventory and challenges. Below is a breakdown of key regions:

Kīhei & Wailea (South Maui):

South Maui comprises the sunny coastal communities of Kīhei, Wailea, and Mākena. This region has a large share of Maui’s condos and some of the most expensive real estate on the island.

Kīhei: As a mix of local neighborhoods and vacation condos, Kīhei’s market in 2025 is bifurcated. There’s an abundance of condo listings in Kīhei, many of which traditionally operated as short-term rentals. With the county’s rental phase-out looming, Kīhei condo sellers are adjusting prices downward to attract the shrinking pool of investment buyers mauirealestate.com. Median condo prices in Kihei have softened from their peak; buyers can find some relative bargains, especially in older complexes. On the single-family side, Kīhei has seen inventory build up – motivated sellers have had to price competitively, resulting in modest price declines for homes in the $1–2M range mauirealestate.com. Still, demand exists for well-located properties (ocean proximity is king). Kīhei’s attraction remains its sunny weather and beaches, so first-time homebuyers and retirees alike target this area. By 2030, Kīhei may also benefit from spillover housing as developments like Honuaʻula (just south of Maui Meadows) come online, potentially easing some pressure. One thing to watch: traffic and infrastructure in Kihei. The north-south corridor is congested, and although road improvements are planned, any delays could slightly dampen real estate desirability if commute times worsen.
Wailea/Mākena: This is Maui’s luxury belt. Gated communities, golf course frontage homes, and five-star condo resorts define Wailea. Prices here have remained very strong. Even in the market cooldown, Wailea saw robust sales – agents report serious buyers continued snapping up high-end properties, often with cash mauirealestateadvisors.com. The median single-family home in Wailea is well above $3 million, with ultra-luxury estates reaching $10M+. Inventory is usually tight (many owners are deep-pocketed and not forced to sell). In the condo segment, Wailea condos (most of which are zoned hotel/resort or have grandfathered rental rights) still fetch top dollar; for instance, Wailea Beach Villas or Makena Surf units commonly exceed $1.5–2M. Looking ahead, Wailea will see new inventory from the Honuaʻula project’s 1,150 homes just outside Wailea. Although Honuaʻula includes “workforce” units, its market homes will effectively extend Wailea’s luxury market (with modern homes, some likely priced in the $2M+ range). This influx might temper price acceleration slightly by adding supply, but given phased construction (100 units/year max) mauinow.com, it won’t flood the market. Wailea’s resort amenities and golf courses ensure it remains a magnet for affluent second-home buyers. Barring economic turmoil, expect South Maui to continue leading in average price metrics.

Lahaina & West Maui:

West Maui includes Lahaina, Kaʻanapali, Nāpili, and Kapalua. It was the area most impacted by the 2023 wildfires, and its real estate story is now one of recovery.

Lahaina: The historic town of Lahaina was at the epicenter of the wildfire disaster. Much of Lahaina’s housing stock was destroyed on August 8, 2023, including entire neighborhoods of single-family homes and rental apartments. Before the fire, Lahaina had a mix of old plantation-style homes, new builds in subdivisions like Kahoma Village, and some condos mostly on the north and south edges of town. In the immediate aftermath, real estate activity in Lahaina nearly froze. Many properties no longer exist or are just rubble lots; survivors either plan to rebuild or are uncertain. Property sales in the burn zone were effectively paused – the county initially halted transactions to prevent predatory buying. There have been reports of unsolicited lowball offers to owners, which authorities are investigating pbs.org. Governor Green’s call for a land sale moratorium in Lahaina underscores how sensitive this is civilbeat.org. As such, Lahaina’s short-term market outlook is highly unusual: values are hard to pin down. A few undamaged Lahaina homes on the periphery have sold, but generally buyers and sellers are waiting for clarity on the rebuild plan. Over the next 1–2 years, Lahaina will likely see reconstruction of homes by owners with insurance payouts and federal assistance. Real estate investors might partner in these rebuilds, but wholesale development will be guided by a master plan (Rebuild Lahaina initiative) to ensure infrastructure and cultural sites are respected mauirecovers.org. By 2030, Lahaina will hopefully have new housing, possibly at higher density or with modern codes (e.g., underground utilities, fire-resistant landscaping). The community emphasis is on keeping Lahaina lands in local hands, so we may see mechanisms like affordable housing requirements or land trusts to maintain local ownership. For current homeowners, state law also provides some tax relief – properties destroyed are not taxed until rebuilt civilbeat.org.
Kaʻanapali and Nāpili/Kahana: Just north of Lahaina town, Kaʻanapali is West Maui’s resort area with master-planned hotels and condo-tels, while Nāpili/Kahana are more residential resort communities (with many condos). These areas escaped the wildfire damage but were economically hit by the tourism halt. Kaʻanapali’s condo market (which includes many vacation rental condos) has been soft in 2024 due to a double whammy of fewer tourists and the county’s looming rental ban. Sales volume is down and inventory up (e.g., several units at complexes like Kāʻanapali Shores or Honua Kai are on sale). However, values for oceanfront resort-zoned condos have held better than apartment-zoned ones because they can continue Airbnb operations. Some Kaʻanapali condos and Kapalua condos are even being seen as safe havens for investors reallocating from Kihei, since the law largely targets apartment zoning. Median condo prices in Nāpili/Kahana have dipped (these tend to be older buildings, some leasehold). On the single-family side, neighborhoods like Nāpili and Kapalua’s Pineapple Hill have elite homes. Those prices are influenced more by luxury trends and less by wildfire (though the loss of Lahaina’s amenities temporarily makes West Maui a bit less convenient). A significant factor for West Maui is insurance and resilience. After Lahaina, insurance premiums for fire and hurricane coverage in West Maui jumped. This affects the cost of owning property and could cool demand if holding costs rise. New developments in West Maui are on hold for now (understandably, focus is on rebuilding what was lost). Over time, West Maui’s allure – sunsets, golf, luxury resorts – will persist, but real estate here will carry the narrative of what happened in 2023. Expect a strong community and government hand in steering West Maui’s real estate recovery, possibly favoring buyers who intend to live full-time or rent long-term over purely short-term profit plays.

Wailuku & Kahului (Central Maui):

Central Maui is the island’s commercial and government heart, encompassing Wailuku (county seat, old town charm) and Kahului (business center and airport). It’s also home to many of Maui’s full-time residents.

Wailuku: In recent years Wailuku has been undergoing a renaissance, with a revitalization project bringing new streetscapes, a planned parking garage, and support for arts and culture venues. Real estate in Wailuku consists of older plantation homes in areas like Old Sand Hills, newer subdivisions on the slopes (like Wailuku Heights), and some condos. Home prices in Wailuku are relatively more affordable (median perhaps in the $800K–$900K range for a single-family in 2024) compared to South/West Maui, making it attractive for local families. Inventory has increased here too post-pandemic, giving buyers more choice. The June 2025 data showed Wailuku with one of the higher inventory levels and slower absorption (months of inventory climbed), indicating a shift to a buyer’s market mauirealestate.com. Wailuku homes did see slight price declines in 2024 as higher interest rates limited local purchasers’ budgets. Still, being the civic hub, Wailuku always has steady demand. As new affordable housing projects come (like 324 units at the nearby Waikapū Country Town’s first phase, or infill apartments), Wailuku could see more inventory at the lower price tiers, stabilizing prices. One thing to note: Wailuku is not affected by short-term rental issues much, since it’s mostly local-use zoning.
Kahului: Maui’s largest population center and retail hub, Kahului features a lot of Maui’s entry-level housing (older houses in Dream City or Kahului Town, and some condo complexes). It also has the airport, harbors, big-box stores, and commercial zones. Residential real estate in Kahului has been very tight – locals compete for limited listings, and prices rose sharply in 2020–22. By 2025, prices plateaued around mid-$800Ks for a typical 3-bed home. Inventory is scant; any reasonably priced home here still tends to get offers since it’s so central for working families. Looking ahead, Kahului will gain a significant number of new affordable units via projects like the Kaiahale ‘o Kahiluhilu mixed-use development (on underused county land) mauinow.com. Also, the state’s Puʻunēnē area (old sugar lands between Kahului and Kīhei) is eyed for future housing. These could improve supply. From an investment perspective, Kahului might not have the glamour, but it has stability and is vital for rentals (the long-term rental demand from hospital workers, teachers, etc., centers here). Landlords favor Kahului due to proximity to jobs and schools; even with more apartments coming, vacancy rates should remain low.

Kula/Upcountry Maui:

Upcountry refers to the higher elevations on the slopes of Haleakalā – Kula, Pukalani, Makawao, and Haʻikū (though Haʻikū is more North Shore in location, it’s often lumped in). These areas are known for cooler climates, agricultural lots, and a more rural lifestyle.

Kula & Pukalani: Kula is famed for its bi-coastal views and farms (flower farms, produce, etc.). Many homes here are on acreage. The 2023 fires did impact parts of Kula, burning some homes in neighborhoods like Waiʻolē and Pulehu. While not as extensive as Lahaina, it reminded Upcountry residents of wildfire risk in this drought-prone area. Real estate in Kula saw a brief pause after the fires, but demand remains strong from those who want space and cooler weather. Inventory in Kula has been relatively low; a number of displaced Lahaina families even looked Upcountry for temporary housing, tightening the rental market. Median home prices in Kula are around $1M (some above, some below, depending on acreage). Pukalani, being closer to schools and with more suburban-style lots, is very popular with local families – homes in Pukalani’s subdivisions (like Kula 200) get snapped up quickly. In mid-2025, data showed Kula’s market picking up with pending sales increasing mauirealestate.com, suggesting buyers moving in perhaps after the fires. Upcountry’s challenge is water and permitting – many lots remain unbuilt due to water meter limits. If the county improves water infrastructure Upcountry, it could unlock more housing development (a positive for supply, but perhaps a threat to Upcountry’s rural charm). Expect Upcountry values to hold firm or rise moderately; it’s a finite market that tech-savvy remote workers and retirees find appealing for the tranquility.
Makawao & Olinda: Makawao town has a rustic, artistic vibe, and is another Upcountry enclave. Makawao’s housing stock is a mix of old plantation homes in town and estates/farms on the outskirts (Olinda, etc.). The real estate activity here is similar to Kula – limited inventory, steady demand. Makawao did see an increase in sales in 2025 (with pending sales matching actives at one point mauirealestate.com, indicating balance). Prices are slightly lower than Kula since it’s lower elevation and less view-oriented, but Makawao’s proximity to central Maui (15 min drive) keeps it in demand.

North Shore (Pāʻia, Haʻikū, Spreckelsville):

Maui’s North Shore is the epicenter of surf culture and off-grid living. Pāʻia is a trendy small town; Spreckelsville is a high-end neighborhood by the beach; Haʻikū is more rural and lush.

Pāʻia & Spreckelsville: Pāʻia’s charm and location (gateway to Hana Hwy) make it a sought-after spot. It has a very limited housing supply – just a few streets of homes and some plantation-style storefronts. Prices in Pāʻia have skyrocketed in recent years as wealthy buyers prize its quaintness and beach proximity (think multi-million dollar cottages). There’s essentially zero new development here due to zoning and community opposition – which keeps supply fixed. When something does hit the market, it’s often a restored historic home commanding a premium. Spreckelsville, near Baldwin Beach, is one of Maui’s priciest neighborhoods (large oceanfront estates and golf course homes, often $3M and up). Those rarely turn over. Thus, the North Shore near Pāʻia is very tight-knit and high price. In 2025, not much has changed – maybe a slight slowdown in sales volume simply because of lack of listings and the wider market coolness. But don’t expect any “deals” in Pāʻia; it’s niche and will likely remain so.
Haʻikū: Further east, Haʻikū offers lush, rainy landscapes and many off-grid homes on agricultural lots. It’s more affordable than other parts of Maui; one can find a rustic house on 2 acres for under $1M (though with quirks like catchment water). Haʻikū attracts those looking for privacy, sustainable living, or surf enthusiasts (it’s near famous windsurfing spots Ho‘okipa and Jaws). The market in Haʻikū has been steady – many properties here are unique, so pricing is case-by-case (a newer home with a big ocean view can still fetch well over $1M, while a fixer-upper shack might go for a few hundred thousand). Inventory was moderately high in 2024 (some owners cashed out given the big appreciation post-2020). By 2025, Haʻikū had around 14 active listings and only 1 pending sale at one snapshot mauirealestate.com, indicating slower absorption (likely because some properties are off-grid or non-conforming, limiting finance options). Nonetheless, as other areas get pricier, Haʻikū stands as a relatively accessible option for those willing to live rural. Over time, the North Shore might see impacts of sea-level rise on coastal roads and erosion – already parts of the Hana Highway by Sprecks/Pāʻia experience wave overwash on big swells. Long-term investors should watch for adaptation measures or planning rules that could affect oceanfront property use here.

Upcountry/North Shore Outlook:

These less urbanized regions (Upcountry and North Shore) will likely continue to attract a mix of Maui residents and remote workers seeking lifestyle over convenience. Climate change is a double-edged factor here: Upcountry will grapple with drought and wildfire risk, while the North Shore faces coastal erosion and flooding. Policies like mandated firebreaks for rural subdivisions or fortified coastal setbacks could come into play by 2030. However, those likely won’t diminish the fundamental desirability of a Haleakalā view or a North Shore surf bungalow – they just add layers of cost and planning to future development.

In summary, location specificity is key in Maui: South and West Maui are more influenced by tourism and now disaster recovery, while Central and Upcountry/North Shore are driven by local demand and lifestyle. An investor or homebuyer should study each micro-market – Maui is not monolithic. The good news is, across all regions, Maui’s natural beauty and island lifestyle keep real estate values buoyant over the long term, even if short-term corrections happen.

6. Impact of Recent Wildfires and Climate Risks

The August 2023 wildfires on Maui were a pivotal event with far-reaching consequences for the island’s housing, development plans, and collective consciousness about climate risks. In tandem with other climate change factors (sea-level rise, drought), the wildfires have reshaped priorities and regulations in Maui’s real estate sector.

Wildfire Impact on Housing Demand & Supply:

The fires – particularly the Lahaina inferno – instantly wiped out an enormous chunk of Maui’s housing stock. Over 2,200 structures were destroyed in Lahaina, including an estimated 3,000 residential units (homes, apartments, etc.) civilbeat.org uhero.hawaii.edu. Additionally, about 19 homes burned in Kula Upcountry. The immediate effect was a humanitarian housing crisis: more than 12,000 people were displaced almost overnight civilbeat.org. Many found temporary shelter in hotels, vacation rentals (opened up via emergency programs), or with family. This surge in displaced families created unprecedented demand for rental housing across Maui. Areas like Central Maui and Upcountry saw locals snapping up any available rentals. Some landlords who normally did short-term rentals offered month-to-month leases to fire survivors, partially mitigating a full-blown homelessness scenario.

In the months after, housing demand among locals remained extremely high. Real estate agents reported increased inquiries from Lahaina residents looking to buy or rent in other parts of Maui (if they had insurance payouts or savings to do so). This added a layer of demand in markets like Wailuku, Kihei, etc., possibly propping up those markets even as overall economic conditions cooled. Conversely, some fire victims chose to leave Maui entirely (moving to O‘ahu or mainland) due to lack of housing, which sadly meant a loss of population and a slight easing of demand pressure in late 2023.

On the supply side, the fires tightened Maui’s housing inventory in a new way. Not only were thousands of units gone, but also some existing listings were withdrawn as owners offered those homes to displaced family/friends or because they didn’t want to sell amidst the crisis. In West Maui, any seller not under duress pulled back – who would buy in Lahaina right after? Thus, measured inventory on the market in late 2023 didn’t immediately spike from the fire (though it did later due to broader conditions as discussed). The real supply challenge is rebuilding the lost homes. That reconstruction is expected to take years; Maui County set a five-year goal to allow nonconforming homes to rebuild and possibly expedite permits mauinow.com hawaiipublicradio.org, but issues like debris removal, toxic cleanup, and planning a new town layout mean Lahaina’s housing won’t be fully back until closer to 2030. In the meantime, Maui essentially has to house the same population with thousands fewer homes, underscoring the urgency to build new housing elsewhere on the island.

This urgency has influenced policy: it was a catalyst for the short-term rental phase-out (to free existing units for locals) civilbeat.org, and it put wind in the sails of long-stalled affordable projects (like Honuaʻula, approved with the reasoning that “we critically need housing for local families” mauinow.com mauinow.com). The fires also prompted an influx of state and federal funding for housing: for example, FEMA and HUD funds are being allocated for temporary and permanent housing solutions. There’s talk of land swaps and using state-owned land to fast-track workforce housing for those displaced. All these efforts collectively aim to increase Maui’s housing supply in the face of the wildfire losses.

Construction Challenges Post-Fire:

The rebuilding effort itself has ramifications on construction costs and schedules island-wide. With Lahaina’s massive reconstruction, contractors are in high demand. There are only so many builders, electricians, and plumbers on Maui, and many are now focused on fire-related projects (debris cleanup, infrastructure repair, eventual home building). As one commercial broker noted, this rebuild is “putting more pressure on an already slow permitting process” and driving up labor costs due to high demand hawaiipublicradio.org hawaiipublicradio.org. This means that other construction – say a new home in Kīhei or a remodel in Kahului – might face delays or higher bids because resources are tied up in West Maui. In essence, the wildfire rebuild has become the dominant project that could slow down or raise costs for other development in the short term.

Material and labor cost inflation post-fire is a concern. We saw similar after natural disasters elsewhere – prices for lumber, concrete, etc., can spike in the local area. Maui may have to import labor (contractors from other islands or mainland) to meet the demand, which could be costly but necessary.

Climate Risks – Wildfire, Drought, Extreme Weather:

The wildfires highlighted Maui’s vulnerability to drought and wildfire. Climate scientists note that as rainfall patterns change, even tropical islands like Maui have extended dry seasons. Maui’s leeward areas (West Maui, Central valley, parts of Upcountry) were extremely dry in summer 2023, creating tinderbox conditions. Real estate-wise, this has spurred discussions on requiring wildfire mitigation in housing design. Maui County is considering amendments so that rebuilt homes in fire zones might need fire-resistant roofs, cleared defensible space, and perhaps even community firebreaks or improved emergency water storage for firefighting reddit.com. Homeowners in rural areas are more aware of brush management now. Investors developing subdivisions near wildlands will likely need to incorporate fire safety features (wide roads for fire trucks, multiple egress routes, etc.). Additionally, following the fires, some insurers reassessed wildfire risk in Hawaii. While not as drastic as California, it’s possible insurers will enforce stricter requirements or higher premiums for high-risk locales (e.g., homes adjacent to gulches or hills with dense brush).

Beyond fire, hurricane risk and flooding remain perennial concerns. Hawaii is in a relatively low-probability hurricane zone, but not zero – e.g., Hurricane Iniki devastated Kauaʻi in 1992. A direct hit on Maui would be catastrophic; thus new construction, especially high-end oceanfront homes, are being built to high wind codes. Expect continued stringent building codes for wind and seismic (Hawaii follows International Building Code with local amendments).

Sea-Level Rise (SLR) and Coastal Erosion: Over the next decades, SLR is arguably Maui’s biggest climate threat to property. Even by 2030, we might see noticeable impacts at king tides. The state’s 2017 study projected $19 billion in assets at risk statewide from 3.2 feet of SLR by 2060 civilbeat.org. Maui has several erosion hotspots: Kāʻanapali’s beaches, Kahana’s shoreline (where condos already risk collapse into the ocean), parts of Kihei and Spreckelsville. Already some condos in Kahana have placed sandbags and are planning large-scale beach nourishment or seawalls to protect foundations.

In recognition, Hawaii implemented the sea-level rise disclosure law in 2022, meaning anyone selling a coastal property must disclose if it lies in the mapped SLR inundation zone civilbeat.org. This policy is now standard in transactions – buyers are more informed. So far, it hasn’t hugely dampened coastal property demand (as Civil Beat noted, oceanfront homes still sell for $10M even if they might “fall in the ocean eventually” civilbeat.org). But over time, expect buyers and lenders to factor these risks more. For instance, 30-year mortgages for properties in low-lying areas might face added scrutiny or require flood insurance. The county may also get stricter on permitting seawalls or new construction very near the shoreline (to avoid worsening erosion). Real estate developers might focus more on elevating structures and situating critical infrastructure (like electrical panels) on higher floors.

Encouragingly, Maui is proactive: the University of Hawaii and local planners are actively researching best practices for designing for future sea levels, potentially updating county codes accordingly mauinow.com mauinow.com. By 2030, we could see new rules for minimum lot elevations or setback distances for coastal development – all aimed at resilience.

Insurance Market Shifts:

A subtle but important effect of climate risks is on property insurance. After the 2023 fires (the costliest disaster in Hawaii’s history), insurance companies paid out massively. There were anecdotal reports of insurers temporarily halting new policies in high-risk zones until they reassessed. Nationwide, insurers are retreating from fire-prone and flood-prone markets (e.g., California, Florida). Hawaii could feel this squeeze; already, Hurricane insurance is an add-on requirement here (hurricane coverage has a separate deductible). If wildfires are now a known peril on Maui, insurance underwriting will adjust. We might see rising premiums, stricter inspections (clearing brush as a condition, for example), or in worst case, insurers non-renewing some areas. The state does have the Hawaii Property Insurance Association (HPIA) for difficult-to-insure homes (like a quasi-insurer of last resort), which might become more utilized. All these factors make the cost of ownership higher and could influence buyer decisions in the long run (e.g., an older single-wall home in a gulch might become costly to insure, thus less desirable).

Psychological and Market Sentiment:

The wildfires also had a psychological impact on both locals and potential off-island buyers. For locals, there is now an even greater desire for secure housing – the fires underscored how precarious the situation is if you’re renting or in substandard housing. This could mean more locals prioritizing homeownership or pushing lawmakers for housing reform. For outside buyers, seeing Maui’s tragedy on global news was sobering. Some second-home buyers might have shifted focus to other locales temporarily. However, history of disasters elsewhere shows that real estate demand usually bounces back once rebuilding is underway. Maui’s fundamental appeal – natural beauty, climate, lifestyle – didn’t burn down. In fact, some buyers may feel a renewed passion to be part of Maui’s renewal (with a spirit of “Lahaina Strong”).

In conclusion, climate risks are now front and center in Maui real estate decisions. The 2023 wildfires were a wake-up call that even paradise is vulnerable. This has accelerated policies to reduce risk (like clearing vacation rentals to make room for residents) and will shape building practices. By 2030, expect Maui’s built environment to reflect lessons learned: from fire-resistant homes in Lahaina, to elevated beachfront structures in Kahana, to perhaps even managed retreat in some areas. Investors and homeowners who take these risks seriously – through insurance, mitigation, and advocacy for smart planning – will be best positioned in the new normal.

7. Government Policy and Tax Updates

Recent years have seen significant government policy changes in Hawaii and Maui County that affect property owners and investors. The twin goals driving many of these policies are addressing the housing crisis for local residents and improving resilience in the face of climate and economic challenges. Here are key updates on laws, regulations, and taxes:

Property Tax Reforms (Maui County):

Maui County has traditionally had low property tax rates (thanks to tourism-driven revenue), but in 2024 the County Council enacted notable adjustments to shift more tax burden onto non-resident and investment properties. For Fiscal Year 2025, the Council unanimously approved a structure that lowers or holds rates for most owner-occupied homes while hiking rates for second homes, vacation rentals, and B&Bs civilbeat.org civilbeat.org.

Owner-Occupied Homes: Tax rates for primary residences under $3M in value were decreased or kept flat (e.g., $1.80 per $1,000 for the first $1M of value, down from $1.90) civilbeat.org. Only homes above $3M saw an increase to $3.25 per $1,000 civilbeat.org. This was explicitly to “hold down costs for locals” civilbeat.org.
Non-Owner Occupied (Second Homes): These saw increases, especially at the high end. For example, the rate on non-owner homes $1M–$3M went from $8.00 to $8.50, and above $3M jumped from $12.50 to $14.00 per $1,000 civilbeat.org. This means a $5M vacation home now incurs $14k/year in county tax versus $12.5k before – a notable bump.
Short-Term Rentals: Maui created a new tiered tax rate for Transient Vacation Rentals (TVR) and Short-Term Rental Homes (STRH). Instead of a flat $11.85 per $1,000, it’s now $12.50 up to $1M, $13.50 for $1M–$3M, and $15.00 for value above $3M civilbeat.org. This is now the highest property tax rate category in Maui civilbeat.org, even higher than hotels ($11.75) or timeshares ($14.60). For example, a $4M vacation rental condo would pay about $50k/year in property tax – a significant holding cost that could deter some speculators. The council openly stated this shift was to offset revenue from giving locals a break and to acknowledge that many short-term rental owners are off-island (i.e., community impacts without as much local contribution) civilbeat.org.
Bed-and-Breakfasts: Owner-operated STRs (B&Bs) also saw a rate hike, though they remain a small portion of the market. Council member Paltin noted hearing “short-term renters’ response” – indicating some pushback from this group civilbeat.org, but the council proceeded recognizing the tourism slowdown already was making things rough for these operators civilbeat.org.

The overall effect is that investors will face higher carrying costs on Maui properties, particularly those not rented long-term to locals. Conversely, long-term rental properties actually have a preferential rate ($3.00–$8.00 per $1,000 depending on tier) mauiproperty.com, which the county implemented to incentivize property owners to rent to residents instead of doing Airbnbs. Maui County also offers a Long-Term Rental Exemption for owners who commit to year-long leases to locals, which can knock significant value off the taxable assessed value (encouraging more conversions to long-term rentals).

For context, even after these hikes, Maui’s effective property tax rates are modest by mainland standards – great for owner-occupants, but for vacation rentals now on par with or above many mainland locales (~1%+ of value annually).

Short-Term Rental Regulations:

We covered Bill 9’s details in Section 2, but to recap policy: If/when it passes, by the end of 2025 Maui will have a law that prohibits new short-term rental use in apartment zones and sets a clock for existing ones to wind down by 2028–2030 fastcompany.com. This will fundamentally change the legal landscape for Maui vacation rentals.

In the interim, enforcement is ramping up on illegal rentals. The County’s Planning Department has beefed up its enforcement unit and is using software to scrape booking websites for illegal listings. They’ve also raised fines for violations. So, for example, a house in a residential zone caught renting nightly without a permit can face hefty penalties. With community sentiment strongly in favor of housing locals, the political will to enforce is high.

Another policy nuance: Honolulu’s law raising the minimum rental to 90 days (which Maui doesn’t have since it’s going a different route) was upheld after state legislation clarified counties’ powers mauinow.com. So, across Hawaii, counties now have clear authority to regulate vacation rentals. Kauaʻi and Big Island have their own regulations too. Investors should thus assume the regulatory trend is toward restricting short-term rentals statewide, not loosening.

Affordable Housing Requirements and Incentives:

Maui County’s inclusionary zoning (the Workforce Housing Ordinance) requires that large developments allocate a percentage of units for affordable/workforce buyers. Historically it was up to 50% for some projects, but recently the county has shown flexibility. In Honuaʻula’s case, the requirement was adjusted to 25% (288 out of 1,150 homes) mauinow.com mauinow.com, plus possibly more if the state helps with a highway. Some criticized this reduction mauinow.com. This indicates the county might negotiate lower affordable percentages in exchange for fast action on delivering units.

The state and county also offer incentives like fast-track 201H approval for affordable projects (bypassing some zoning and design regulations). Several 100% affordable projects have utilized this to get approved in months instead of years. For developers, this is a key policy if they’re willing to build below-market units (often with government subsidies). With so much focus post-fire on housing, we may see even more leniency or support for those who propose truly affordable housing (e.g. fee waivers, free land leases, etc.).

Hawaii’s conveyance tax (transfer tax) is another area under debate. There have been bills proposing to raise conveyance taxes on luxury property sales to fund affordable housing tfhawaii.org tfhawaii.org. For instance, proposals to impose a steep tax (even up to 6% in some drafts) on sales above $5M. As of 2025, no huge changes passed, but it’s something investors should monitor. A tax increase could slightly cool the top of the market or at least capture more value for public housing funds.

Land Use and Zoning Updates:

In response to the fires and ongoing development needs, Maui’s planners are updating community plans with an eye to resilience and equity. The West Maui Community Plan (updated in 2021) already prioritized limiting resort expansion and encouraging housing. But after the fire, expect amendments that might, for example, upzone certain Lahaina parcels for higher-density housing (to rebuild more units on less land) or designate new urban boundaries to allow construction on safer ground (maybe further mauka, away from shoreline and fire corridors).

The Council is also exploring resort zoning conversions for some condo properties as part of mitigating Bill 9’s impacts mauirealestateadvisors.com. If they allow certain areas (possibly those adjacent to existing resorts) to change to hotel zoning, that could preserve some vacation rental inventory – a nuanced policy response to balance housing and tourism. No decisions yet, but policy watchers should note the possibility.

Another policy: Moratoriums. After the fires, there were calls for a temporary moratorium on land sales in Lahaina (to prevent opportunistic buys) pbs.org. While it’s legally tricky to outright ban sales, what has effectively happened is a moratorium on development in Lahaina until a plan is in place. The county has said no building permits in the decimated area until recovery plans are sorted (with exceptions for minor cleanups). There’s also been a long-standing moratorium on new hotel construction in South & West Maui (since 2018) until certain studies are done on tourism impact. That hotel moratorium might be revisited given the circumstances – possibly kept in place to not add more tourist units when they’re trying to reduce them.

State Laws – Climate and Disclosure:

At the state level, Hawaii has passed progressive laws affecting real estate:

The aforementioned Sea Level Rise Disclosure Act (2022) makes Hawaii the first state to mandate disclosing future climate risk in real estate sales civilbeat.org. This is now standard practice and adds an extra layer of due diligence for coastal deals.
Climate Adaptation Plans: The state climate commission is working on guidelines that may become law, like not allowing new critical infrastructure in inundation zones, or requiring sellers to disclose if a home has ever been damaged by climate-related events (like floods or wildfires).
Energy codes: Hawaii updated its building energy codes in 2020 to require solar water heaters in new homes (already mandated) and encourage photovoltaic readiness. Don’t be surprised if by 2030 new homes might be required to have solar + battery or EV charging setups – Hawaii aims for clean energy and that filters into building requirements.

Tax Credits and Relief:

There are some relief measures for owners affected by disasters. Maui County approved an emergency tax relief so that properties destroyed in the fires would pay no property tax for the remainder of the tax year civilbeat.org. They also delayed property tax deadlines for West Maui. On the state side, there’s talk of offering tax credits for property owners who rebuild to higher safety standards or for retrofitting homes with things like fire-resistant roofing. While not enacted yet, the legislature may consider such incentives to encourage resilient rebuilding.

Additionally, Hawaii has a Homeowner Exemption (Maui’s is $300k off assessed value for primary residents under 60, more for kūpuna/older folks) – ensuring local owner-occupants get a break on taxes. This was unchanged, but the value of exemption could be raised in future to keep up with rising home values.

Development Moratoria and Water:

A significant issue in Maui is water availability. There was previously a moratorium on new water meter connections Upcountry for decades due to limited source. Progress is being made (new wells, etc.), but water policy will dictate where development can happen. The state Water Commission is also scrutinizing stream allocations (a big deal after the fires, since a disputed decision about diverting water for firefighting became controversial). For investors, this means always check water meter status – policy can prevent building if infrastructure isn’t there. Conversely, if the county invests in new water systems (West Maui will need a rebuilt water system in Lahaina), that opens areas for rebuilding and possibly new projects.

In summary, policy is actively evolving to address Maui’s twin crises of housing affordability and climate vulnerability. The trend is:

Make it more expensive or difficult to hold property purely for investment or short-term profit (via higher taxes and rental regulations).
Make it easier to build or convert property for long-term housing for residents (via fast-track approvals, tax incentives, lower tax rates).
Increase transparency and requirements around climate risks (via disclosure laws and building code changes).
Ensure local residents benefit from development (through inclusionary zoning and measures like the Lahaina land sale constraints).

Property owners and prospective buyers should stay attuned to County Council meetings and Hawaii legislative sessions, as 2024–2026 will likely bring more changes. For instance, Maui County’s Council has new members post-2024 elections who might push even further on housing reforms (like vacancy taxes or stricter second-home regulations, which have been discussed conceptually). Hawaii’s Legislature in 2025 considered a “housing windfall” bill to tax house flippers or quick resales at higher rates (not passed yet, but indicative of the policy environment).

Overall, Maui’s government policies are signaling a clear message: real estate should first and foremost serve the needs of the local community and environment. Investors who align with that – by providing long-term rentals, embracing sustainability, and being good stewards – will find the regulatory climate far more favorable than those seeking to purely extract profit from Maui’s land.

8. Projections Through 2030

Looking toward the rest of the decade, Maui’s real estate market is expected to undergo significant evolution. By 2030, the island’s housing landscape will likely reflect both the policy interventions currently underway and broader economic and climate trends. Here is an outlook on what to anticipate in Maui real estate through 2030:

Housing Supply and Affordability:

One of the biggest changes by 2030 will be an increase in housing supply – both through new construction and conversion of existing units – targeted for local residents. If Maui successfully implements its short-term rental phase-out (Bill 9), it could add on the order of 6,000+ housing units to the long-term market by 2030 that were previously tourist accommodations fastcompany.com. This is akin to constructing an entire new town’s worth of housing without much new building. The effect should be a notable easing of rental availability and potentially a moderation of rents (which currently average well over $2,000 for a 2-bedroom). Local residents may find more choices for housing, and multi-family rental complexes might see higher occupancy by locals instead of being used for vacation stays.

In parallel, new developments will contribute units: projects like Honuaʻula (1150 homes by ~2030) mauinow.com, Waikapu Country Town (up to 1,400 homes over 20 years), Kaʻanapali 2020 (if it moves forward, adding homes in West Maui), and infill projects (Wailuku apartments, etc.). Maui’s 201H fast-track approvals could expedite several hundred affordable units per year in the latter 2020s. However, it’s important to note Maui’s population isn’t expected to explode – forecasts suggest modest growth or even leveling (some estimates see Maui County population rising only a few thousand by 2030, partly due to out-migration) nchstats.com. Therefore, if housing stock increases and population growth is tepid, pressure on prices could stabilize or even decrease in real terms. In other words, Maui might move from a severely undersupplied market to a just moderately undersupplied one. That would be a huge improvement for affordability.

The homeownership rate could inch up if more locals can buy. Programs like the Department of Hawaiian Home Lands are also getting unprecedented funding ($600M statewide from 2022 legislation) which by 2030 might house many Native Hawaiian beneficiary families on Maui, further relieving some demand.

Still, don’t expect a glut – Maui will likely remain a high-cost market relative to most U.S. markets due to desirability and limited developable land. But the double-digit annual appreciation of the pandemic era is unlikely to repeat; a more balanced market with 0–5% annual home price growth (around inflation rate) is a conceivable scenario for the latter part of the decade, assuming interest rates normalize and no major economic shocks.

Tourism and Second-Home Market:

By 2030, Maui’s tourism sector will probably have adjusted to a “new normal” size. With thousands fewer vacation rentals, the total visitor capacity of the island will be somewhat reduced. The UHERO analysis predicted a ~25% drop in visitor units and a 15% drop in visitor spending if the phase-out is fully realized fastcompany.com. This suggests Maui may end up with a tourism industry more oriented around hotels, timeshares, and legal resort condos.

For real estate, this could mean the second-home/vacation condo segment might contract in volume. Fewer people will be buying condos purely as short-term rental investments (since many condos can’t be rented short-term by then). Those who do buy condos will either be residents, snowbird retirees who occupy the unit themselves, or investors satisfied with long-term tenants. Prices for condos, especially in non-resort zones, might therefore still be below their 2022 peaks. In fact, UHERO’s estimate of a 20–40% price reduction for affected condos fastcompany.com might largely play out over the latter half of the 2020s as the deadlines approach. So by 2030, a Kihei condo that was $800k in 2022 might be, say, $600k–$700k, making it more affordable for local buyers or off-island second-home buyers who want a personal vacation spot (not a high-yield rental). Condo market segmentation will be stark: Resort-zone condos (Wailea, certain Kāʻanapali/Kapalua projects) will hold value and appreciate as they remain income-producing and scarce, whereas apartment-zone condos (Kihei, Maʻalaea, etc.) become valued more like residential units, with likely lower price-to-rent ratios.

The single-family second-home market (high-end homes in Kapalua, Wailea, etc.) may see a plateauing. Some affluent buyers might turn to other locations if Maui’s message is perceived as less welcoming to outside ownership (due to things like anti-speculation sentiment). However, Maui’s prestige will continue to attract wealthy individuals, especially if global wealth grows. We might see more purchases by people who intend to spend significant time on-island or even relocate, rather than pure investment flips, as the latter will find fewer quick wins with flattening prices and higher taxes.

Rebuilt Lahaina and West Maui Resurgence:

By 2030, we expect Lahaina to be substantially rebuilt. The vision likely includes a mix of housing types: maybe mid-rise condos or apartments in the core, new single-family subdivisions on the outskirts, and restored historic buildings for Front Street businesses. If done right, Lahaina could offer more housing units than before (to house those who were displaced), possibly in modern, energy-efficient buildings. This new supply in West Maui could help stabilize West Maui’s real estate prices which currently are high due to limited inventory.

However, the character of West Maui’s market might shift more towards local housing and less about luxury second homes, at least in Lahaina town. Areas like Kapalua will remain luxury enclaves, but Lahaina might have more workforce housing integrated. The wildfires may also prompt fire buffer zones around communities (open spaces or low-flammable landscaping) which could slightly reduce developable land but greatly increase safety.

Insurance costs will be a factor though – if insurance remains expensive, by 2030 we might have seen some form of government-backed insurance pool or stricter building codes rewarding resilient construction with lower premiums.

Infrastructure and Capacity:

Maui’s infrastructure in 2030 will dictate a lot of real estate potential:

Water: If new water sources (like the East Maui water if diversified, new treatment plants, etc.) come online, there could be more approvals of projects that were on hold. Conversely, if climate change reduces rainfall, water shortages could cap growth. Likely scenario: moderate improvements in water infrastructure allow planned projects to proceed, but outdoor water usage might be curtailed (more water conservation rules).
Transportation: The Lahaina bypass highway extension, the widening of Puʻunēnē and other roads, and maybe some enhanced public transit will be in place by 2030. A more efficient road network could make areas previously seen as remote (like Kahakuloa or farther reaches of Upcountry) more accessible/desirable, potentially spurring development interest there.
Renewable Energy: Maui is pushing toward renewable energy (targeting 100% renewable electricity by 2045). By 2030, more homes might have solar/storage by requirement. Large solar farms might occupy some currently fallow sugarcane lands – those aren’t directly real estate developments, but they take land that might otherwise be housing. Yet energy independence will improve resilience and could make living costs lower if electricity rates stabilize, indirectly benefiting the real estate market by increasing disposable income for housing.

Market Cycles and External Factors:

On the economic front, the period up to 2030 will likely include at least one cycle of recession or slowdown and subsequent recovery (given historical patterns). Maui’s real estate tends to follow the U.S. but with a lag and sometimes milder swings. If the U.S. enters a recession in, say, 2026, Maui home prices might dip or flatten for a couple years, then pick up again by 2028. Provided there are no catastrophic events, a reasonable forecast is modest appreciation overall by 2030. Perhaps single-family medians in Maui County in 2030 could be around $1.4M–$1.5M (in 2025 dollars), and condo medians maybe $800k – basically inching up with inflation, not skyrocketing.

However, risks to that outlook include:

A major hurricane hit (low probability, high impact) – would cause a short-term crash in the market and then a rebuilding spike similar to the wildfire scenario.
Global economic crises or geopolitical events that drastically reduce tourism long-term (e.g., another pandemic) – which would depress demand for second homes and possibly force some vacation property sales, lowering prices.
On the flip side, breakthroughs in remote work or another wave of people relocating from mainland (like we saw in 2020) – if a new influx of wealthy remote workers occurs, they could drive another surge in Maui real estate demand beyond current residents’ ability to pay.

Climate Change by 2030:

2030 is not far, but climate trends will be more pronounced. We may see more frequent coastal flooding events during king tides, which could start to affect property values of the most exposed coastal homes (e.g., a few homes in Spreckelsville or Kihei that see seawater on their lawns might see reduced buyer interest, unless protective measures are taken). Real estate listings by then will almost universally mention if a property is in a sea-level rise zone or wildfire zone (that information is public and required). Buyers in 2030, being more climate-aware, might prefer properties on higher ground or built post-2024 (knowing they meet newer codes). This could create a two-tier market: older coastal properties vs. newer resilient homes, with valuation differences based on perceived safety.

Also, by 2030, Hawaii’s plan to reduce greenhouse gases could include incentives for urban densification (to shorten commutes) – Maui might see more acceptance of townhouses or multi-family projects as opposed to just single-family sprawl, as a climate-friendly development pattern. The Kihei and Kahului areas could have new mid-rise condos that weren’t common before.

Conclusion – Maui 2030:

Envisioning Maui in 2030, we likely see:

A Lahaina that is rebuilt, modernized, and perhaps more community-centric (with a memorial or tribute to the 2023 event). Property values there recovered, but maybe with a priority for local ownership.
An expanded pool of housing across the island making Maui slightly more affordable for locals than it was in 2020s, though still premium.
Tourist accommodations shifted more to regulated venues (hotels, timeshares), and a tourist count that’s sustainable (the island might handle 2–2.3 million visitors a year instead of 3 million, for example).
Real estate prices that are high but growing at a measured pace, not a bubble. Single-family homes average in the mid-$1Ms; condos average under $1M. The luxury segment still very high-end (with perhaps even record breakers as some uber-wealthy folks continue to buy trophy Maui estates).
Investors focusing on long-term value: rental income from local tenants, redevelopment opportunities, and niche markets like senior housing or agricultural estates, rather than quick flips or purely Airbnb plays.

Most importantly, Maui’s policy shifts may serve as a model for balancing a tourist-driven economy with resident needs. If successful, by 2030 Maui could boast a more stable housing market, where teachers and firefighters can find a place to live, where wildfire and flood risks are mitigated proactively, and where the natural beauty that drives value is protected.

That said, Maui will always face the challenge of being a small island with finite land. Thus, real estate will remain a precious commodity. Potential investors and buyers should approach Maui with a long-term mindset, respect for the local community, and adaptability to the evolving regulatory environment. The rest of this decade will be critical in determining Maui’s trajectory – but the initiatives underway in 2025 position the island to enter 2030 on stronger and more sustainable footing.

Sources:

Realtors Association of Maui housing statistics and market updates mauirealestateadvisors.com mauirealestateadvisors.com mauirealestateadvisors.com civilbeat.org.
Maui Now News – Market trends and post-fire reports mauinow.com mauinow.com civilbeat.org civilbeat.org.
Honolulu Civil Beat – Coverage of Maui County policy changes (Bill 9 short-term rental phase-out, property tax reforms) civilbeat.org civilbeat.org.
Honolulu Civil Beat – Wildfire impact analysis and government response civilbeat.org civilbeat.org.
Hawaiʻi Public Radio – Commercial real estate insights and Lahaina rebuilding effects hawaiipublicradio.org hawaiipublicradio.org.
Associated Press (via Fast Company) – Overview of Maui’s post-wildfire housing legislation and economic projections fastcompany.com fastcompany.com.
Maui County press releases and MauiNow – Honuaʻula project approval details mauinow.com mauinow.com.
University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization report on vacation rental phase-out impacts (as cited in news) fastcompany.com fastcompany.com.
Hawaii sea-level rise and climate disclosure law coverage civilbeat.org civilbeat.org.
MauiNow Hawaii Journalism Initiative – Legal perspectives on Bill 9 and short-term rental regulations mauinow.com mauinow.com.