Global Real Estate Rollercoaster: US Home Sales Jump, Asia Deals Surge, Europe Stalls – Global Market Update (Sep 29–30, 2025)

• US residential rebound but cautious: Pending home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly climbed 4% in August (from July) and 3.8% year-on-year realestatenews.com. Economists like Oxford’s Ryan Sweet warn that “housing will find its footing” only once 30-year mortgage rates dip below ~6% realestatenews.com. First American’s Odeta Kushi notes that “improvements in mortgage rates, affordability, and inventory are helping, but not yet driving a full recovery” realestatenews.com. A Reuters poll shows U.S. home prices are forecast to rise only ~2% in 2025–26, as high financing costs and tight supply keep demand muted reuters.com reuters.com.
• North America policy and prices: Canada’s central bank cut its policy rate to 2.50% – a three-year low – citing a weak jobs market and tariff uncertainty reuters.com reuters.com. Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized readiness to cut again if needed: “if the risks tilt … we’re prepared to take action” reuters.com. In Australia, the RBA held its cash rate at 3.6% on Sep 30, noting economic data was slightly stronger. Governor Michele Bullock warned the housing market is in “a very difficult position” due to structural supply shortages abc.net.au abc.net.au. New York Times–level house prices in Canada and Australia are expected to rise modestly (e.g. Reuters analysts see ~5–6% Australian gains over two years reuters.com) but affordability remains a key constraint reuters.com abc.net.au.
• Europe remains flat: In the UK, annual asking prices for newly-listed homes fell about 0.1% in September, the first drop in over a year reuters.com. Analysts at Rightmove attribute this to tax-change uncertainty: “Rumours of property tax changes…can affect market activity, especially in the higher price brackets,” said Rightmove expert Colleen Babcock reuters.com. Zoopla noted rents are rising at just ~2.4% (the slowest in 4 years) as more rental listings ease pressure reuters.com. A wider Europe survey calls the commercial market “zombieland”: first-half commercial sales were flat at €47.8B (half the level of 2022) and cross-border flows hit decade lows reuters.com. As PGIM’s Sebastiano Ferrante grimly put it: “no recovery, stranded assets, no liquidity coming back” reuters.com, especially in office and retail. However, housing remains under-supplied in many European markets, keeping multifamily and logistics in favor.
• Asia-Pacific mixed picture: Hong Kong’s property slump deepens – prices are down ~30% since 2021 reuters.com – putting local banks through a “real-world stress test” reuters.com reuters.com. Even conservative lenders like Hang Seng see non-performing loans jump (to 6.7%) in CRE lending reuters.com. Regulators’ past measures (tough LTV limits) have so far shielded banks, but CBRE forecasts office vacancy rising to ~19% in 2025 reuters.com. In contrast, some Asian markets see investor interest: Singapore’s Centurion Accommodation REIT raised S$771m in IPO and surged 11.4% on its debut reuters.com. Deloitte’s Tay Hwee Ling hailed this as “the return of REIT IPOs” that should boost market confidence reuters.com. China’s housing downturn lingers: a Reuters poll sees new-home prices down ~3.8% in 2025 (improving from 4.8% before) but sales and investment still sliding reuters.com reuters.com. Fitch analysts warn China faces “many structural challenges” (demographic shifts, high unsold inventory) reuters.com, so recovery may not arrive before late 2026.
• Middle East & Latin America: In the Gulf, Saudi developer Dar Global unveiled a $1 billion Trump Plaza project in Jeddah reuters.com, marking the Trump Organization’s second Saudi development. High-end Gulf real estate remains active amid infrastructure booms. Latin America saw mixed signals: Mexico’s central bank cut rates to 7.50% on Sep 25 (low since 2022) to stimulate growth reuters.com, easing financing for housing. Brazilian home prices have been climbing fast (10-year highs) despite high interest rates, raising affordability concerns (FipeZap data).
• Investment & financial markets: Global capital is cautiously returning. LightBox reports Q3 CRE deal volume running “above trend” as September closes, led by large multifamily and retail sales lightboxre.com lightboxre.com. Floating-rate financing eased after the Fed’s 25bp cut lightboxre.com; as Manus Clancy (LightBox) observed, “Rate relief is the catalyst everyone has been waiting for. As capital gets even slightly cheaper, expect lenders to lean in.” lightboxre.com. Investors are still eyeing defensive sectors: multifamily is widely rated 2025’s most favored CRE class due to steady demand and financing depth lightboxre.com. REITs and property stocks outperformed in late Q3 as bond yields eased. For example, Japan’s Dream RES 5% property REIT (1053.T) jumped on strong guidance. Singapore’s bourse saw its biggest IPOs (AvePoint dual-listing, DC REIT, Centurion REIT), signaling revived interest reuters.com reuters.com. Global fund flows into real estate, while off recent lows, still lag private credit (European real estate fundraising only ~$20B H1 2025 vs. ~$40B for credit).
• Economic backdrop: Inflation remains sticky above targets. U.S. core PCE held at ~2.9% in August, keeping Fed’s “no easy path” stance. Nevertheless the Fed cut 25bp at its Sep FOMC (to 4.0–4.25%) and markets price a few more cuts by 2026. Longer-term rates stayed high (10-year ~4.2%), so 30-year mortgages hover ~6.3–6.5%, still choking demand reuters.com. In Europe, CPI is easing but still >2%, so ECB is expected to pause. BoE held at 4.0% (Sep 18 meeting) and futures point to the first cut by Spring 2026. Asia central banks varied: China’s PBOC left policy steady amid near-zero inflation; Japan’s BOJ kept yield curve controls in place. Banxico cut to 7.50% citing weak growth reuters.com, and signals more easing ahead. Housing supply remains tight globally – new home construction is still well below long-run demand in North America and Europe – so most central banks emphasize structural fixes (zoning, credit) over macro tools.
• Expert commentary & outlook: Analysts broadly foresee only modest property gains ahead. A Reuters poll sees U.S. home prices rising just ~2% in 2025–26 reuters.com, similar to sluggish forecasts for the UK and Europe. In China, most experts expect housing to bottom by 2026 with only gradual recovery reuters.com. Investors favor “resilient” markets – strong multifamily, logistics, life-sciences and data centers – over oversupplied offices/retail lightboxre.com reuters.com. As one commercial realtor observed: “The uptick in delisting [in the US] reflects the transitioning housing market… sellers take homes off the market when they are not getting offers at the price they hoped” realestatenews.com. Sentiment is cautious but not panicked; INREV/UBS surveys show investor confidence in real estate has dipped to a 1+ year low in Europe, mirroring softness in U.S. surveys. Long-term, experts like Zillow expect only a slow normalization: “housing will remain grounded until significant rate cuts or supply relief,” says Redfin’s O’Keefe realestatenews.com.

In sum, the global property market is at a standstill with pockets of surprise activity. U.S. buyers have briefly re-engaged (Aug pending sales +4%) realestatenews.com, but most regions see flat demand under the weight of high rates and uncertainty. Savvy investors are following rate signals and targeting niche sectors, while policy-makers grapple with supply shortfalls. The consensus forecast calls for only marginal price moves through 2025–26, until monetary easing and fiscal housing programs build momentum.

Sources: Recent industry data and analysis from Reuters, RealEstateNews, LightBox, Bloomberg, national associations and central bank releases (as cited above) realestatenews.com lightboxre.com reuters.com abc.net.au reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com. Expert quotes and forecasts are drawn from these primary and news sources.